Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150650
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
150 AM EST WED NOV 15 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 15/1200 UTC THRU NOV 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OFF THE B.C./VANCOUVER ISLAND COAST WILL
PUSH VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DAY 1 INTO COASTAL B.C.  THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INLAND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THE STRONGEST
ONSHORE FLOW AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSED INTO THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD INTO COASTAL OREGON AND
FARTHER SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN SIERRA.  PW VALUES THAT HAVE BEEN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
WITH THE HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE
INCREASING TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AS THIS TROF TAPS A
POOL OF HIGH PW VALUES EXTENDING INTO THE SUB TROPICS ALONG
130-140W.   SUBSEQUENTLY---THE MOISTURE FLUX VALUES THAT HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE COASTAL PAC NW WILL INCREASE TO
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE---3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN SIERRA.  THERE IS A STRONG MODEL
SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA GIVEN THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES/MOISTURE FLUX WITH
CONSENSUS FOR 5-8" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS.  TOTALS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON WILL
NOT BE AS HEAVY---BUT 2"+ AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS STILL LIKELY.
NORTHWARD INTO THE OREGON-WASHINGTON CASCADES AND WEST TO THE
COAST RANGES AND OLYMPIC RANGE---WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS ALSO
LIKELY---ALBEIT WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE.  HIGH
SNOW LEVELS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP AS RAIN FROM THE NORTHERN
SIERRA INTO THE NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST OREGON---WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF ISSUES.
 THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SO INTO THE UPSLOPE OF THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WHERE HOURLY RATES IN THE .25-50"+ RANGE ARE LIKELY.

INLAND---PRECIP TOTALS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST OF
THE SIERRA WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN.  MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM NW WY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ID.
THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER
INFORMATION.

GREAT LAKES---MID ATLANTIC---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS---OH
VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROFFING PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE---MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES--OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DAY 1.
OVERALL---MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY---OH
VALLEY---ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC.  THERE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD AREA OF MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT--WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS IN THE .25-50"+
RANGE FROM THE OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES---WITH LIGHTER TOTALS EASTWARD INTO THE FAR EASTERN
LAKES---MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  PRECIP TOTALS MAY
BE ENHANCED OFF OF THE UPPER LAKES ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND THE
NORTHERN L.P. FROM STRONG NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA

LOW LEVEL EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DAY 1 OFF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SHOWERY THREAT ACROSS
THESE REGIONS WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 379298 387294 392288 403275 409269 413266 417264 424262
      433261 441260 448259 456260 467263 472263 477265 486269
      496283 500285 503283 508277 516257 518249 518242 517237
      516232 512223 511218 513216 515217 520218 523218 528219
      530216 532211 534204 532194 532186 531181 527171 517155
      509149 504144 490134 482128 475123 472122 471124 469129
      468135 469140 461143 454143 451140 449136 446131 447126
      453120 456117 455112 456108 456102 454097 450093 445092
      442089 439087 436089 433089 430087 425084 422086 424091
      426096 427101 423102 423110 421116 422121 425142 425145
      423147 418146 414146 411148 406154 406159 404165 399171
      397177 396184 395191 392193 387192 385189 380186 375184
      368182 364183 364188 371195 373199 373205 367210 366212
      364212 358211 355213 355219 355230 356235 358238 363240
      368243 371246 373250 379255 379260 377265 373278 371287
      372294
 0.01 533747 533734 532728 531724 525713 517699 515697 512699
      507703 496712 486722 475732 474734 471733 464732 451730
      440731 433731 427730 420730 416724 412718 409711 405704
      400701 394698 387697 376696 364705 359709 354711 351717
      347722 345724 342728 340734 336739 338750 340757 343759
      346759 352762 357764 361763 364761 368757 369753 372751
      377754 381759 383766 391777 386783 381786 377791 373799
      371806 369813 367819 363824 360830 359837 363836 365835
      369834 369837 366842 364847 352872 346885 343892 341901
      337907 335913 335922 330926 328929 327934 324939 315945
      308949 303954 295962 285969 281974 277980 276990 279993
      292987 304983 315979 318979 320981 324985 334993 338993
      341991 343984 345978 346972 348971 352967 356961 365949
      369944 373938 379928 387919 393914 399912 407911 414910
      420906 426905 432900 437895 441891 448888 454890 458894
      460903 462909 466917 469923 472931 474938 476947 477952
      480952 495952 499949 502944 504939 504933 507924 510907
      510902 511898 512889 514868 517851 521813 524793 526785
      529777 533763 533752 533747
 0.01 485151 484150 483150 482150 483151 484151 485151
 0.01 475199 476194 474191 471189 469190 467192 464194 462196
      463200 464204 466205 468204 470202 473201 475199
 0.01 468674 468669 466667 459664 453663 446663 437665 431668
      429672 430675 435681 442684 449683 451684 456683 464681
      468674 468674
 0.01 299804 298799 296797 290793 288791 284790 276790 269789
      260790 246796 242801 239807 238815 238821 239824 242826
      245825 250819 252812 256810 260809 269809 277809 284812
      288812 295811 299804
 0.25 525203 526199 526195 526188 525180 523174 512156 509152
      505148 500147 495143 489137 483135 482138 488147 497154
      501156 500160 499160 490157 485156 481155 476154 470155
      467158 468164 476172 480175 482180 485185 489188 498187
      503188 507191 516197 523205 525203
 0.25 512260 514250 513242 513236 510229 504217 501212 498208
      490199 487199 483204 474208 468209 464209 460208 456211
      453213 447215 439214 433211 426203 423197 418196 406190
      403189 401192 398197 391196 387193 376187 371185 370188
      371190 377202 378209 376212 374213 370215 367219 365227
      366235 371240 376243 382245 386249 386256 384261 380275
      378284 382288 387286 390283 404266 409263 414260 423257
      443252 454250 465251 476255 486262 495271 499276 502278
      505273 507268 512260
 0.25 524765 524751 522740 519733 514727 507724 503725 499725
      495726 492733 488742 485747 481753 476759 465770 460776
      457781 454789 450795 437803 431807 423808 419808 416809
      409812 405818 400823 396827 392834 378863 372875 365889
      358904 355912 354921 355925 358927 361929 364927 367918
      369911 373905 377900 385897 392897 401897 407895 413891
      418886 424880 430877 436873 442868 447869 451869 454868
      459869 460871 462876 463882 462894 463905 465909 468910
      475909 482910 486906 490900 493892 497870 499850 503833
      507815 515798 520784 523773 524765
 0.25 491237 490231 491225 489223 487225 481223 476222 470224
      468226 468229 473228 475226 478227 481233 482235 486236
      490237 491237
 0.25 468230 466227 465228 464229 466230 468230
 0.25 461183 455174 454160 453155 450151 443142 438133 435128
      435121 436118 438118 442121 445121 447119 449114 446102
      444096 440093 435094 430090 426088 426093 429097 431099
      431103 430108 425119 425134 428145 431157 446172 451180
      454184 457185 458183 461183
 0.25 429168 429166 428165 426163 426165 427168 429168
 0.25 423176 423172 421171 419170 418166 420162 421157 420152
      417151 413156 410164 409169 405172 403174 402179 403183
      405184 407182 411181 415184 419182 423176
 0.25 390728 389723 386719 383716 379715 373715 368718 359720
      356723 353728 350736 350742 352747 356749 361747 367741
      371739 376738 383733 390728
 0.25 289803 287799 281796 277794 270793 266794 259796 253799
      253802 254805 261805 269804 274804 280806 285807 289803
 0.50 511255 512248 511243 510234 505228 502219 500215 498211
      494208 490206 483207 476210 470212 464211 450216 434216
      431213 427212 422217 421220 421223 425225 429230 429234
      425235 421234 420231 415229 418219 417213 414212 412212
      409210 408204 406201 398199 390197 384193 376188 372189
      373193 377200 379206 379212 377215 371216 368220 368225
      368231 370235 383239 385240 388244 389248 389252 383271
      382277 382283 385285 388283 398269 403264 408260 415256
      420255 434251 448246 455245 463246 471248 477251 483255
      490262 496269 501272 503270 502266 501263 497255 494247
      493243 490240 486238 483239 482237 480233 476230 472231
      469232 465232 461232 457230 463228 469223 474219 481220
      485221 489220 492218 492225 494235 498242 502249 506256
      510257 511255
 0.50 517188 518182 515179 510175 504171 498165 490163 483164
      482169 484173 486175 490176 498179 506181 512185 517188
 0.50 515772 515760 514753 512749 508742 502739 497741 493748
      490755 484761 474770 470778 467786 465794 462800 452811
      446816 444820 444824 443828 443834 441838 440842 439847
      438849 432850 426855 425859 426863 427867 431867 438865
      445861 452860 460858 466854 479852 483846 486839 490830
      493822 506795 510790 512784 515772
 0.50 495148 495147 493145 492145 492147 493148 494148 495148
 0.50 482887 481879 478872 474872 470878 466883 465889 464898
      465902 468903 473903 478900 480894 482887
 0.50 451163 449158 447151 444147 441142 438135 433131 431132
      430137 430144 432152 435157 439161 444161 449164 451163
 0.50 446114 445109 444103 441099 436099 433095 431091 429091
      429094 431097 434102 434107 433110 435114 440114 445115
      446114
 0.50 423205 423204 422202 421201 419200 418201 417203 417204
      419205 421205 422207 423205
 0.50 417203 416203 414201 412200 410202 412203 414203 416203
      417203
 0.50 416161 417158 416158 415158 414159 414160 414161 416161
      416161
 0.50 416868 416862 414858 412856 408855 401857 394861 389866
      385872 384876 384879 390881 398879 405876 411873 415871
      416868
 0.50 365735 365733 365730 364728 362728 361729 361730 360731
      359733 359734 359736 360737 362737 363737 365735 365735
 0.50 278801 277800 277799 275798 273798 272797 270799 270800
      272801 274801 275801 276801 277801 278801
 1.00 508248 507243 506237 503233 501230 499224 498221 495221
      494227 495232 497236 499240 502244 504248 507250 508248
 1.00 493259 494256 493254 493253 492251 492250 492248 491246
      491245 490244 488243 486243 486246 487249 487250 488252
      490255 491256 493258 493259
 1.00 489216 489215 487215 485217 487218 488216 489216
 1.00 480241 480239 479236 478233 476233 474234 473234 473236
      473239 473240 475242 476243 478244 479243 480242 480241
 1.00 480802 479796 476795 469802 461809 458813 456818 455824
      455833 454840 452845 452848 457847 466841 471833 476822
      481812 480802
 1.00 465221 463217 460217 454219 446219 442219 439221 439224
      441226 440231 438234 431238 425237 418235 414233 412229
      415219 415215 413214 409214 408211 404205 397201 389198
      377190 374191 376195 380201 381208 381214 379217 375218
      372218 370224 371227 374230 377231 379231 382233 385236
      389237 393243 397250 399252 404253 408254 411253 417250
      430248 443243 449241 456240 458239 459236 457235 452233
      451230 453225 457224 460225 463224 465221
 1.00 443154 443152 442148 440145 439141 438139 436137 434140
      433143 433147 433150 434152 436155 439157 442156 443154
 1.00 405229 406224 406222 402220 399219 397217 394216 391215
      388215 386217 386221 388222 391224 394225 398225 401226
      404229 405229
 1.50 502241 502240 502238 501235 500233 500232 499229 498226
      497226 496223 495225 495228 495229 496231 496233 497234
      498236 498237 499238 501239 502241 502241
 1.50 443240 443237 442237 441237 439238 438238 437239 436240
      436242 436243 437243 438242 440241 442240 443240
 1.50 427242 422238 417238 406233 401229 394227 388224 383220
      379220 374220 373224 374226 378228 381228 383230 388233
      392234 396239 400243 405246 411245 414246 418244 424244
      427242
 1.50 438153 439151 439148 438146 438143 437141 436143 436145
      435148 435150 436152 437153 438153 438153
 1.50 413224 414217 410216 407213 404208 398202 389199 384196
      381195 377194 379197 382201 382206 382211 383214 385214
      393214 401218 406219 407223 408228 410229 412226 413224
 2.00 411223 412219 410218 406212 402207 398203 393201 387198
      384197 383200 383207 384210 387212 394214 399217 406218
      408220 408225 411223
 2.00 403240 404238 404235 403235 402233 401231 399231 397230
      395231 396233 396234 397236 398237 399238 401239 401240
      403240 403240
 2.00 392230 390228 390227 389226 387226 386226 386228 386229
      387231 388231 389231 390231 392230 392230
 2.00 379224 378223 376223 376224 378224 379224
 3.00 404214 403212 401209 399206 397205 395203 392202 389201
      385200 385203 385205 386208 389210 391211 394213 397215
      399216 402216 404214
 4.00 402214 401211 400208 397206 396204 392203 389202 387203
      387205 389208 391210 394212 396213 400215 402214
 5.00 400213 400212 400211 399209 398208 397207 396205 394204
      392203 390203 389203 390206 391209 393210 395212 396213
      398214 400214 400213
 6.00 399213 399211 398210 398208 397207 395206 395205 394204
      392204 391206 392207 393209 393210 395211 396212 397213
      398213 399213
 7.00 398210 397209 396208 395207 394206 393207 393208 394209
      395210 397211 398210

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