Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191854
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 20/0000 UTC THRU SEP 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

COASTAL NEW ENGLAND

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK OF JOSE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES AND
SUBSEQUENTLY NO BIG CHANGES TO THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FROM COASTAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC.  HEAVIEST RAIN FORECAST TOTALS CONTINUE TO FOCUS FROM
MVY/ACK INTO THE CAPE AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND REGION.  MODEL
CONSENSUS FROM HI RES SIMULATED RADARS IS FOR THE CURRENT AREA OF
PRECIP WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF JOSE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINS CLOSER TO THE CENTER AFFECTING SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THIS SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE IN TACT NEAR THE CENTER---HELPING TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS OVER SOUTHEAST MA---INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS OF ACK AND MVY.  PRECIP TOTALS DAY 1 OF 1-3"+ EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHEAST MA--WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUTS OF 1"+ POSSIBLE DAY 2
BRINGING STORM TOTALS OF 3-5" FOR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLAND.

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER LAKES

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS---INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONG LIFT IN AN AXIS OF INCREASINGLY ANOMALOUS PW VALUES AHEAD
OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITIES TONIGHT FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
1200 UTC WED---LIMITING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE UPPER LAKES
REGION.  HEAVIEST TOTALS DAY 1 EXPECTED FROM FAR EASTERN ND/FAR
NORTHEASTERN SD----ACROSS MOST OF MN INTO FAR NORTHWEST WI---WITH
AREAL AVERAGE .50-1" AMOUNTS DEPICTED.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

A BROAD MEAN TROF WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE NATION/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CANADA AS ADDITIONAL
NORTHEAST PACIFIC HEIGHT FALLS DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN CYCLONIC ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY 1.  WHILE PW VALUES ARE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES DAY 1---THE
SUSTAINED NATURE OF THE CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE OREGON
CASCADES WEST TO THE OREGON COAST RANGE AND SOUTH INTO THE NW
CALIFORNIA COAST RANGE.  MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS
ALSO LIKELY INLAND  FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ID---NW MT AND NW
WY/FAR EASTERN ID.  EARLY SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FROM
NW WY INTO CENTRAL ID/NW MT.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL-SOUTHERN  APPALACHIANS/UPPER TN VALLEY

WEAK UPPER TROFFING MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO STALL IN RESPONSE TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING ASSOCIATED
WITH JOSE.  THE CURRENT WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION STRETCHING
ROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AFTER 0000 UTC.  ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON---ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH ANY QPF
DETAILS IN WHAT WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.
STILL---LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 452626 456627 459630 464636 466644 465650 464655 462661
      463669 462679 457689 451699 447705 445708 440710 435713
      433718 427726 423733 418740 411747 403753 375740 371739
      369737 364730 361724 360718 361712 360704 360698 358696
      356697 352700 347701 340698 339691 340687 345680 351675
      369663 374657 378654 382653 388650 392648 404644 411644
      420644 428645 434643 439640 444634 450627
 0.01 560084 562070 563056 564029 564012 564995 561974 559957
      558951 557944 556939 558936 562924 563919 563910 560896
      557881 554867 552863 552856 551851 549848 544844 538841
      530838 522838 504841 496844 488848 476863 470869 462874
      442881 438882 435884 428887 417895 403906 394917 391929
      387938 384947 384954 388954 391954 393952 397949 400947
      404943 409937 417931 423927 426925 429927 428931 426933
      421940 416947 412954 413958 416960 422966 422974 423981
      426986 431989 438994 441006 436029 435033 436038 439042
      439048 441058 441070 441074 445075 447077 449077 449072
      447068 446062 447058 458047 461042 462040 462035 466021
      469016 472012 479008 484007 488006 493005 498007 513015
      519021 520030 523049 528074 529085 528095 525096 523096
      517095 510099 507103 505107 504112 505117 506123 505130
      503137 500143 493137 490133 486129 479125 477123 475120
      472112 472106 470103 468100 464097 460095 457092 449089
      440088 438090 437092 434091 427085 423086 423092 424095
      424098 421101 421124 422129 424134 424142 424150 425154
      424161 423172 422178 420181 417189 413201 410202 412205
      412208 410208 406207 403205 398203 394200 389199 386200
      383202 385206 389211 394214 398215 403217 404221 402223
      400224 397224 391223 385229 385233 387238 389245 391248
      394251 407258 411258 416259 424258 440259 461261 470262
      476261 479259 484252 489260 495267 498271 502273 512263
      515262 516259 520253 520247 523243 528236 529229 531225
      535215 540203 544191 550160 555134 557117 558111 559103
      560084
 0.01 512657 511649 510644 503633 497628 494633 492638 488648
      484661 481671 478685 475695 474702 471708 469717 467725
      467732 468739 472738 479731 483722 485714 487709 490697
      491691 494685 496681 500677 504674 507669 512657
 0.01 502204 501196 498191 491183 487181 481179 473173 471172
      469173 467182 465196 466202 466206 469206 477201 485197
      488195 491196 492198 500206 502204
 0.01 443130 443128 442126 441127 440128 439129 439132 439134
      440135 441134 441132 442132 443130
 0.01 437840 436828 434825 430825 426824 421824 412821 414814
      414809 411807 408805 406807 405806 402802 399797 395791
      390786 382783 377784 373787 363798 358800 352800 350798
      348795 348791 347781 345777 342777 336782 329789 328792
      328796 333800 343801 347804 349809 348817 343825 340833
      341838 345842 352842 356836 358832 362830 366838 381840
      385842 388845 390849 393853 396855 399856 402857 407858
      411859 416858 420856 425855 436854 436844 437840
 0.01 353987 351984 347984 338988 334991 330992 327994 326990
      328984 328979 326982 322991 320997 317002 314005 311011
      309014 306017 302019 297021 290020 286021 276026 274028
      273033 268042 263045 258043 250036 245032 240029 235029
      231029 229031 228036 227049 229056 231060 235062 243069
      252075 264085 272093 276095 281097 289096 293094 293088
      294083 297079 300074 301067 304058 309049 308045 308038
      308034 310030 314026 325014 333006 337004 340000 344998
      347994 353987
 0.01 318941 318933 314928 309928 304931 300934 296938 291940
      285939 278939 273941 275947 279952 288958 297963 301964
      307960 312952 315946 318941
 0.01 312871 312864 310858 309852 307848 305843 301840 295840
      294845 290856 289858 291866 292873 294878 298887 304895
      308897 309896 311892 312879 311874 312871
 0.01 283794 282788 278786 272786 267789 265792 258795 257799
      253802 251806 253812 255818 258821 261824 264830 268828
      271824 275815 278811 280807 282796 283794
 0.25 556103 559076 559060 559048 559013 560995 558979 556970
      553961 550949 549938 547931 545927 539920 532914 527907
      527904 529903 533903 539904 543905 547902 549892 548882
      546876 544871 541866 525863 512859 496856 494856 492859
      490863 486871 479878 476883 475888 474894 472898 468903
      460902 455903 453905 453912 451917 448927 444938 439947
      437956 437962 434973 434980 436983 442989 452992 456993
      460993 469990 477991 484993 500998 518004 522006 525009
      529018 531029 530042 533066 534073 536079 540087 543092
      542097 537107 533115 530120 525129 522139 519152 518158
      519164 519175 520187 523190 526192 531194 536194 538191
      540180 543166 546150 549134 552124 554112 556103
 0.25 493217 490213 486211 479209 476210 470211 464209 459205
      457199 459192 461188 463181 463173 464168 469165 474165
      480163 483160 481155 478151 476146 487139 484135 480132
      474131 473131 471133 470135 467135 463131 458132 455135
      453141 451144 447145 444144 440141 437141 436143 434150
      435158 438163 444169 444176 442179 439186 438192 440200
      440207 438211 435213 426216 422221 419226 415229 410230
      406231 400231 395232 394237 397243 401246 407249 413251
      422252 433252 454251 463249 467246 469240 470230 472224
      476219 482219 488218 491219 493217
 0.25 449662 447658 442657 435660 430660 421658 409656 404657
      398660 387663 381664 377666 367673 363677 362679 362683
      364690 366699 367706 367712 366716 368719 372724 375727
      380728 395726 406722 412720 417721 421721 425718 431706
      436698 441686 445676 448670 449663 449662
 0.25 455103 454100 452096 445097 441097 438099 432095 430092
      427091 428094 430099 434105 435109 438112 443116 447117
      449114 452112 453107 455103
 0.25 276086 277079 276071 275067 271064 263058 254054 245050
      241048 236048 234051 235056 242063 249068 257075 264082
      273086 276086
 0.25 270804 270801 268799 264800 263801 261803 259805 258809
      260811 262811 264811 265810 267808 269806 270804
 0.50 554023 555006 555995 554988 551972 549964 546957 541949
      534942 529939 526935 518924 513917 509913 507907 503903
      499900 490896 492894 492890 491886 486888 480888 481893
      477898 473904 469907 461911 458916 455921 450933 444945
      443950 444955 446962 443966 440972 441978 445982 450985
      459987 468983 475983 481984 492988 501991 511995 522999
      527001 531005 537013 539027 541036 541038 539041 539049
      540059 541071 544077 547074 549066 549058 547050 547044
      550040 551034 554023
 0.50 538175 540165 541154 541143 540136 537135 534136 530140
      526145 524150 522160 524167 528172 531177 536180 538175
 0.50 468220 467216 465214 456212 450209 444213 437216 429218
      427219 424222 426225 427229 427232 411233 404235 401240
      404244 412247 423248 437246 444247 453245 459243 463241
      465236 465229 468220
 0.50 469152 467149 463145 459146 455150 450150 444147 440146
      437151 438156 441161 445164 448169 452179 454184 458184
      460181 459178 456174 455169 456162 458157 463156 468155
      469152
 0.50 434689 434682 433676 427669 421664 417662 412662 405663
      395667 385669 374672 370674 366676 365679 365682 367688
      370699 371706 370711 370715 371719 374722 378725 386724
      398722 405719 411717 416716 421716 424712 428702 431696
      434689
 0.50 444111 445108 444106 442104 441105 440108 442110 443111
      444111
 0.50 273079 273073 271070 267067 264064 261062 255063 254067
      255071 258074 261076 265079 268081 272080 273079
 1.00 536992 537989 537987 536984 536983 535981 534981 533981
      531984 531986 531987 532989 533990 534991 535992 536992
      536992
 1.00 496970 494965 492962 486957 476955 466956 457958 452964
      449968 449972 452974 460975 465976 471975 481976 490975
      493974 496970
 1.00 493921 492920 491919 491917 490916 489914 487914 485913
      484914 484915 484917 485919 486919 487920 489922 491922
      492922 493921
 1.00 456239 456236 455235 453234 452235 451235 450235 448236
      447236 446238 445238 446238 447240 449240 451240 453239
      454239 456239
 1.00 453228 455221 451217 445217 441217 438219 434221 430223
      431226 435230 437230 442231 445230 449229 453228
 1.00 425244 425242 424240 424239 423238 421237 419237 418236
      416236 414236 412236 411237 410238 409239 410241 411242
      413243 415243 416244 418244 420244 422244 424244 425244
 1.00 424689 423679 422674 420671 415669 407670 401671 394673
      387676 378677 373681 373687 374692 375701 376710 373715
      374719 377721 383722 390721 396719 404716 409713 413711
      417711 420705 422696 424689
 1.50 449224 448222 448221 447220 445220 443220 441220 439221
      439222 441224 442226 444226 446226 448225 449224
 1.50 420685 419677 414673 409673 401674 390679 383681 378686
      377691 377700 378708 376714 379719 385720 399717 409711
      416702 419696 419688 420685
 2.00 418688 418680 414676 410676 404676 393681 382686 380689
      379695 380702 380711 380716 385719 397716 407710 413703
      416698 417693 418688
 3.00 415691 415685 411681 408680 402681 394685 384689 382692
      382699 383711 384716 388717 396713 405708 411702 415694
      415691
 4.00 413689 412686 408684 406684 401685 394687 386690 384693
      384699 385708 385713 388715 392714 394712 401708 408704
      412697 413689
 5.00 411695 408688 402688 395690 388692 386694 386698 386705
      388712 391713 394711 399708 404705 409700 411695
 6.00 407698 406693 402691 397692 392694 389698 388703 388706
      391710 394707 399705 402704 405700 407698
 7.00 401699 401697 399696 399698 399700 400700 401699

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