Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 211858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 22/0000 UTC THRU JAN 23/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

A STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE MS VALLEY. MULTIPLE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ONE OF WHICH IS HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WAA WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN/SNOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND
EVEN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING A SWATH OF HEAVY RATES
TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EXACT AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
TREND AMONGST THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR A FURTHER SOUTH AXIS
ACROSS SD/NE/KS/IA/MN. GIVEN THIS CONSISTENT TREND IN THE GUIDANCE
WPC SHIFTED IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. WE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
12Z GFS...12Z HIGH RES CAM GUIDANCE (NAM/ARW/ARW2/NMMB) AND THE 0Z
ECMWF. WE ALSO BLENDED IN SOME OF CONTINUITY AS SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...AND TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT AXIS UNTIL
IT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. OVERALL THIS NEW WPC QPF PUTS US IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS. PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS SD/NE/KS/IA...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OVER
MN. GREATER MODEL SPREAD EXISTS OVER MN/WI WITH REGARDS TO THE
NORTHERN GRADIENT OF HEAVIER QPF...THUS HERE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RAPIDLY UPDATING HIGH RES
GUIDANCE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE RAINFALL AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX INTO
SOUTHEAST OK. MAY SEE A SMALL PERIOD OF TIME WHERE SOME SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST TRAINING IS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE INITIATION PHASE
OF CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS. HOWEVER BY LATER THIS EVENING
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST OF THE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN AREAL AVERAGED RAINFALL AS
YOU PROGRESS EAST OF THE MS VALLEY. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM
CONTINUITY WAS TO SHIFT SOME HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS A BIT FURTHER
WEST ACROSS TX/OK/AR. THIS IS BASED ON RECENT HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS...AND THE IDEA THAT CAMS SEEM TO UNDER DO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
NEAR THE AXIS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...RESULTING IN THE CAMS
BEING A BIT TOO FAR EAST WITH QPF MAXIMUMS DURING THIS INITIATION
PHASE. OVERALL WPC QPF IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE 12Z HREF MEAN
AND THE 0Z ECMWF...WITH THESE SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE MOST
REASONABLE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF
THE MS VALLEY INTO MONDAY.

ALSO LIKELY TO SEE AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA INTO IL AND SOUTHERN WI/MI. SHOULD SEE GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THIS REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND A TOUCH OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A
BROAD AREA OF 0.75"-1.25" IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH
AMOUNTS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1.5" A POSSIBILITY.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN CA WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THIS
EVENING. WILL SEE A WEAKENING OF THE MOISTURE PLUME BY 06Z AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTH...RESULTING IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL NORTHWEST INTO MONDAY WITH THE AID OF SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

CHENARD

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 23/00Z
 0.01 523264 523258 522252 518239 515229 509220 505211 503207
      503204 504200 507199 509202 514209 520218 525219 528218
      535213 538209 540205 538195 537185 534176 528167 499141
      485131 481128 476127 471126 469122 469117 468113 469110
      468105 465102 457098 445096 441095 438097 430094 428091
      427096 428099 427103 425107 418113 413115 409110 407107
      405111 405114 409119 414123 416127 416133 412142 406149
      402151 399154 395158 394165 389174 396175 399178 402182
      401185 399187 397188 396192 397196 405198 407202 407204
      404204 398202 393199 385195 378193 376193 375196 376200
      374204 371208 369210 362214 358223 357230 358235 358242
      356249 354263 353270 355271 359271 366256 368250 370252
      372257 376260 381263 387264 397262 405260 413256 419254
      424252 429253 433254 436254 441254 445253 452250 459250
      463249 468250 471254 476258 478262 485277 500290 504293
      509294 513290
 0.01 483196 476191 470184 463187 458194 453203 446209 446213
      451213 455211 457207 457204 460203 464205 467207 470204
      474202 478202 481200 483196
 0.01 482796 481790 480787 479781 477776 472753 466735 465730
      463725 459718 456699 454692 451686 448687 444684 440678
      433678 426681 422680 420682 414686 408693 406696 405701
      403708 404722 405728 406734 408737 408743 408747 406750
      402758 400773 398777 398782 394787 388797 385804 386816
      386822 383827 376831 363837 358837 357831 356827 358825
      361819 364812 360812 356816 346826 338836 334843 328847
      317848 312849 309847 300847 291848 270850 267851 265853
      260857 253865 241874 237878 236888 236890 240892 246894
      253897 256896 259896 259899 258918 258929 259934 261937
      265943 267947 267951 263955 257958 253964 253966 257967
      261970 266969 271974 278977 286981 290981 294980 300978
      308976 315973 323970 345960 352958 360957 365957 370958
      373960 374963 373972 374976 373979 374983 374990 375994
      374999 372007 371019 367039 366044 363045 358047 356056
      355058 358060 373056 378056 381058 383056 380052 377050
      373044 373040 377040 384034 387036 388040 388054 389057
      391062 387068 382068 379076 378080 381081 384078 394078
      396080 399081 401076 403071 405068 412071 416064 416057
      418050 420041 426037 429027 432019 437006 443993 445990
      446984 447972 450954 454935 458926 462918 464915 466915
      469917 472917 474907 477897 481882 481874 477871 478861
      478854 479850 480829 482796
 0.01 435206 433203 432200 431197 430195 428192 426191 423190
      419189 418192 419194 420197 423199 425201 428204 429206
      431207 434208 435206
 0.01 445130 444128 442128 440129 440130 438132 438134 439136
      441134 443132 445130
 0.01 401067 401065 400062 399064 398065 397067 396067 394069
      394071 394073 394075 395078 397076 397073 399071 399069
      401067
 0.01 345785 345780 342779 334780 328781 324781 321783 316787
      308790 300787 296783 292782 290784 291793 294799 290803
      295807 302809 310811 315811 331807 341797 345785
 0.01 267802 267800 267798 266797 265796 264796 262796 260796
      260797 259798 257799 255801 255804 256805 258806 260806
      261806 263805 265805 265804 267803 267802
 0.25 529199 531193 530187 526181 519172 514166 512162 509160
      505161 503162 499165 491163 486159 483156 480156 474154
      469149 463144 461142 458143 456148 454152 451155 443153
      437153 434157 436163 442168 444176 449179 457181 461180
      461177 455174 453169 454164 457163 464162 469166 474165
      478166 480170 484176 494182 502185 508189 518197 521201
      525204 528202 529199
 0.25 515269 517264 518257 516248 511235 505220 503214 498208
      494203 487203 477207 471210 464211 460210 459212 454215
      449218 442219 439221 437221 431221 428223 428227 430229
      434230 438227 442227 444230 441232 436237 435239 436242
      440243 448244 455243 461243 466244 472247 478251 483255
      487261 491268 495274 499279 504283 509282 511276 515269
 0.25 501256 499249 496242 493234 489227 486225 484225 479221
      477222 477227 481234 484236 486235 491240 494247 497251
      499253 501256
 0.25 470816 454766 450763 448766 440770 437772 433777 430780
      426784 421793 419799 419806 417811 415816 410827 407837
      405845 399852 394860 390863 387867 384873 380876 358883
      354882 353876 357866 358861 356857 354852 349852 345854
      341858 339859 335858 330862 328865 326870 330878 331882
      336881 333887 319900 312907 305914 299924 294931 288935
      285939 284944 286948 290949 300952 305954 307958 309960
      308964 310967 313967 323965 333961 347954 355950 359948
      364945 372941 379938 382936 387934 391933 395936 397942
      395951 393962 392968 389971 387978 387984 388010 387018
      389023 391027 396030 399030 403028 407026 411022 423012
      430005 434001 435993 434988 434980 437967 441958 443949
      452929 456918 460904 461897 463892 464885 467882 469877
      467871 464861 465848 467834 468823 470816
 0.25 417239 414226 416218 412213 399207 393203 390204 391206
      389210 387212 383217 371221 375232 378240 380245 382249
      386249 391247 396245 402244 415242 417239
 0.25 326799 325797 323795 323793 321793 320793 319793 317793
      316794 315794 314796 314797 313798 313800 314802 316803
      318804 320804 322803 323801 325799 326799
 0.25 311875 311870 309867 303867 299855 292855 287858 282863
      277866 264870 257874 254879 256882 259884 263887 270890
      274890 291888 298886 303883 309879 311875
 0.50 523189 522187 522186 521184 520183 519183 518182 516181
      515179 513179 511178 510179 509180 511182 512183 513184
      514185 515186 517188 518189 520190 521191 523189
 0.50 506274 505268 502263 496254 491244 487240 483241 478231
      473233 471234 471238 474243 479246 482247 485250 491260
      496269 500274 503276 506274
 0.50 509249 509242 508238 505231 503223 500217 496212 491209
      485207 479208 474211 472215 470215 464213 459215 456217
      455221 460224 464225 467224 471220 474218 478218 484221
      488223 491225 493231 497238 501243 505248 509249
 0.50 460235 459234 457233 456234 455234 453235 453237 454238
      456238 458238 460237 460235
 0.50 466157 465155 463154 463156 463157 465157 466157
 0.50 448163 447161 446160 446159 444159 442159 441161 442163
      443164 445165 447165 448163
 0.50 456837 456831 455827 451816 448814 444813 439807 434808
      431809 429812 422825 419835 416844 412853 409860 405866
      400870 395876 392882 393891 389899 386902 382904 380904
      377901 376898 372898 367900 353906 346910 338914 331919
      325922 319925 314929 309934 307937 306941 316954 318958
      321960 326960 331959 338956 344953 349950 355946 369938
      375934 380926 385922 392919 399917 402916 407917 408921
      408927 406939 415953 406963 399977 398983 398989 395999
      392008 392015 394020 396022 400021 406019 410014 415008
      421003 424000 425993 428985 431976 433968 436958 440952
      443945 450927 453918 454907 454895 457887 456875 454867
      454857 455849 456837
 0.50 413224 414219 412217 406216 400213 396210 398215 402222
      398224 393224 386222 381222 377225 379231 385239 389242
      394241 400242 402242 404240 406234 407231 408230 413224
 0.50 295864 295858 291861 288864 286866 283869 280873 279877
      281881 285882 289881 292878 295874 295868 295864
 1.00 497231 498229 498227 498224 496222 495223 494225 495228
      495229 496231 497232 497231
 1.00 489216 489215 487214 486215 487217 488217 489216
 1.00 479241 480239 479236 477235 476235 476238 477239 478241
      479241
 1.00 447918 446911 442910 436906 430905 427903 423901 420903
      419906 420910 422915 425917 429918 431922 430927 429938
      421955 411970 410983 410989 412992 418986 423980 426976
      428971 430961 438944 445925 447918
 1.00 438854 439850 438846 435843 430845 428848 424856 419864
      414872 412877 413881 414887 414893 419895 422893 423886
      426883 429879 432877 436868 436861 437856 438854
 1.00 399237 398234 397231 394228 391230 390229 388227 385226
      384228 384232 386235 387237 390238 393236 396238 399237
 1.00 409896 406895 404896 401899 399900 397901 394903 392904
      390906 391909 392907 394906 398904 399903 403901 404900
      408898 409896
 1.00 372927 372925 372923 371922 370923 368925 368926 367927
      368928 369929 370929 371928 372927
 1.00 363934 363932 362931 361929 359928 357928 356930 355931
      354932 354934 354936 353936 353938 353941 354941 355942
      357942 359941 361938 362936 363935 363934
 1.00 349945 350943 348941 346941 345941 343942 342943 342945
      342947 343948 345949 346948 347947 348946 349945
 1.00 343928 341927 340928 341928 343928 343928
 1.50 426964 426961 427959 426958 424959 423961 422964 421966
      420968 421970 423970 424970 425968 425966 426964 426964

$$





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