Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 120657
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 12/1200 UTC THRU NOV 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1


PACIFIC NORTHWEST

THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING DAY 1
ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA---NORTHWARD
ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARD THE WASHINGTON-OREGON COASTS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.  WHILE PW VALUES DO INCREASE IN THIS STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL FLOW---THEY DO NOT BECOME VERY ANOMALOUS---ONLY REACHING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.  THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST
RANGE AND OLYMPIC RANGE AND INLAND ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.  THE GREATEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE
OLYMPIC RANGE WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MUCH OF
THE HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWING MAX TOTALS OF 5"+ HERE.  .10-.25" PER
HOUR TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE MAX PRECIP REGIONS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LONGER TERM RUNOFF ISSUES.

SOUTH TX

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE WESTERN GULF.
SHOWERS MAY EXPAND MORE TO THE NORTHWEST UP THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AND HELPS TO SPREAD
HIGHER PW VALUES NORTHWESTWARD.  A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS DEPICTED OVER SOUTH TX DAY 1---WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER TOTALS WHERE ANY CONVECTION MAXIMIZES.  THE HI RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OVER
COASTAL SOUTH TX EARLY IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD---SUGGESTING TRAINING
POTENTIAL IN A SOUTH TO NORTH DIRECTION.  LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
VERY SMALL SCALE DETAIL---BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS
EARLY DAY 1 ACROSS THIS REGION.

CENTRAL GULF COAST

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE RECENT PATTERN OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF LA WHERE MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOCUSING INTO THIS PERIOD.  MODERATE TO
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LA.

FLORIDA

SHOWERY CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN AN AREA OF
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LIGHT
TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS DEPICTED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED  HEAVY TOTALS---ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA WHERE RAIN BANDS MAY PERSIST OVER FOR A
SHORT PERIOD AND BRING HOURLY RAIN RATES OF .50-1"+.

MID MS VALLEY--LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY---OH VALLEY---CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF
FAIRLY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALL FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY---LOWER LAKES---OH VALLEY ---CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.  DAY 1 QPF FOLLOWED MOSTLY THE
NSSL WRF AND ARW FOR DETAILS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE
AMOUNTS.

NORTH GEORGIA---UPSTATE OF SC INTO CENTRAL  NC

A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTH GA INTO THE UPSTATE OF
SC AND CENTRAL NC WHERE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL
ENHANCE UVVS IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION.  A
NARROW STRIPE OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 538207 539201 539194 536187 530174 526166 521161 516157
      511152 509151 507153 508157 508161 503160 499156 495156
      493158 489163 486166 486169 484181 483187 481193 480196
      477198 466203 464204 461203 455208 444214 437213 429214
      426215 424219 423222 424224 425228 423231 418228 415227
      416222 417215 416212 412212 408212 405210 399206 396205
      395207 393209 395212 396215 400217 404222 403224 398223
      381220 376223 376230 377238 380244 383251 391254 398258
      405258 412258 416258 419261 422265 430268 434269 437268
      443265 456262 462262 468262 474265 479270 489282 499293
      503291 508285 512280 516274 522256 523251 522245 519237
      514224 511215 509210 511208 513209 517214 523219 529221
      532218 538207
 0.01 475882 474877 472876 471873 471858 471848 468845 465847
      461849 463854 462859 462866 464878 463891 463895 465900
      468898 470894 474885 475882
 0.01 456852 454847 451845 449843 447846 446851 443856 441858
      440863 440866 442863 445863 448862 452858 455855 456852
 0.01 441767 440755 440748 438745 435741 433741 430746 425751
      423758 420766 419770 416774 414776 409777 407778 403777
      400769 398762 394756 389752 383749 376751 369756 364762
      356771 351776 347781 337793 334798 331802 330805 327812
      325819 325833 327841 325844 325848 327855 331857 335856
      346849 352844 354842 356843 357845 362848 358852 356855
      354859 356862 359863 362865 366865 374865 382864 389866
      401864 402867 403873 404880 393874 384875 383882 383886
      384889 387895 392902 396909 401922 403931 405937 407941
      410943 414943 416940 420933 423925 427908 429890 429878
      430869 433864 431857 432852 432842 433834 433824 434814
      437794 440780 441767
 0.01 372806 371804 370804 369803 367803 366804 365805 364807
      364808 363809 362812 364814 366813 367811 368810 369808
      371807 372806
 0.01 347943 346928 346922 345918 343913 340912 336910 333910
      333913 319949 314959 312962 308964 288968 284969 278969
      269966 252961 240961 235961 232963 234983 231991 235998
      238002 242004 252006 257008 261010 266016 276016 281015
      287014 291013 296015 301015 304014 311013 317014 322016
      325016 331010 335003 335997 331994 327992 324988 324984
      327980 330971 343958 347943
 0.01 316804 308801 303800 296800 285797 282794 280786 276782
      271783 267786 263789 250791 245794 243799 239809 238814
      239821 243824 247822 253814 257809 261809 266813 267818
      269824 272829 275834 279836 284838 290837 293833 291828
      289827 291824 293819 297815 302813 308812 311809 316804
 0.01 308873 308863 308858 306856 302863 301870 299872 296871
      294870 291868 288864 282860 277859 271861 268868 267873
      265876 264884 265894 267900 282905 288908 293906 299901
      302895 301891 303888 307882 308873
 0.25 527199 527190 524184 519181 515177 512173 507169 505169
      504174 505179 506181 511186 513190 518195 522199 526198
      527199
 0.25 516262 518255 518249 515242 513234 509226 501212 498206
      492200 488200 485201 480203 469210 461211 456214 449217
      443219 441222 439227 435232 430235 426236 422234 417233
      412233 407235 401236 398235 397237 398241 404247 410249
      418251 426251 433251 440252 456254 463254 471257 478261
      483266 494277 501282 505283 508282 509274 511268 516262
 0.25 488231 488229 487226 484224 481223 477222 474222 472221
      470223 469228 471228 473227 475225 479226 482229 483232
      484235 486233 488231
 0.25 424853 424850 424848 424846 423846 423848 422851 421853
      422855 422858 422860 422862 423860 423858 422855 424854
      424853
 0.25 420905 420900 420895 418892 417895 415898 415900 413904
      412908 412910 411915 413914 415912 417910 419907 420905
 0.25 370781 369779 367778 365780 360786 355791 351798 349805
      344812 348811 354806 360801 363796 366789 370781
 0.25 295891 295885 293881 290877 287875 284873 279873 277877
      276880 275886 276891 278895 282897 287897 291895 295892
      295891
 0.25 282808 283803 281800 279797 275795 268794 259796 252799
      250801 250804 255805 259804 264804 267805 269809 270814
      272820 276820 277817 280811 282808
 0.25 276978 274974 271972 266971 261970 257969 252970 249972
      252975 255977 260978 264979 268981 273980 276978
 0.25 273995 274992 271992 269995 264994 260994 255993 251992
      246992 246994 250996 255998 258998 264000 267002 270001
      270999 273995 273995
 0.50 514256 515253 515249 514244 511236 504221 500213 494208
      489206 484206 478208 472211 466213 459216 454221 458230
      452233 445230 439233 434237 430238 426238 418235 414237
      413241 415244 418247 425248 432247 440247 447248 464251
      472253 480256 491267 503278 505279 506273 505268 504265
      499256 497248 505253 509259 514256
 0.50 492235 490227 488223 481221 476220 469220 465224 464226
      465229 470230 475228 478228 481231 482234 484237 487236
      492235
 0.50 290889 290887 290885 289884 287883 285883 284883 284885
      284887 285889 286889 287890 289890 290889
 0.50 279805 279803 278801 277800 276799 275799 274799 272799
      270799 268799 267800 268800 269802 270803 271804 272806
      272808 273809 273810 275810 276809 277807 278806 279805
 1.00 509246 509240 508236 505229 501220 497214 489212 485211
      482214 485218 491222 493231 497239 502244 504247 508248
      509246
 1.00 493253 492248 489244 482242 480232 475231 471233 462233
      455236 451237 451240 460245 471247 479248 484249 487252
      491254 493253
 1.50 504239 504236 503231 503228 501225 500222 498219 497218
      495219 494222 494228 494230 495233 497237 499238 501240
      503241 504239
 1.50 478243 479241 480239 479236 479235 478233 476232 474233
      473234 472235 471236 471238 471241 472241 473242 475243
      476243 478243 478243
 2.00 500235 500233 500232 499229 499227 498227 498224 497223
      496223 495226 495228 495229 496231 496233 497234 498235
      499235 500235
 2.00 478238 478236 477234 476234 475234 474237 475239 477240
      478238

$$





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