Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181831
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 19/0000 UTC THRU FEB 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO EAST...

THE COMBINATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND A BUILDING SERN UPPER RIDGE, AN UPTICK IN DEEP-LAYER WAA
WITHIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AND EXPANSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB)
WILL CONSUME MUCH OF THE COUNTRY, EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS MEANS
INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER EXTENSIVE QPF
EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND THIS ALL STARTS ON MON. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST MODEL SPREAD EXISTS AND THE PREFERRED
MODEL BLEND FOR QPF WAS 60% HI-RES GUIDANCE AND 40% GLOBAL MODELS.
THE 60% OF 12Z NAM CONEST/HREF MEAN/ARW AND NMMB SHOW ONE DISTINCT
AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF, BASICALLY RIGHT AROUND THE 500MB RIDGE AND
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A MULTIPLE
STREAKS IN QPF WITHIN THE DEEP MOIST SRLY COMPONENT. BOTH
SCENARIOS ARE NOT OUT OF QUESTION BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARDS
THE HI-RES SOLUTION. THUS WPC FOCUSED A HEAVY RAIN AXIS OF 1 TO 2
INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS FROM NERN OK/NWRN AR INTO MUCH OF THE OH
VALLEY, ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL IL, NORTHERN/CENTRAL IN, NORTHERN
OH AND NWRN PA. THEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A
WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE PLAINS MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS QPF TO
EXPAND NORTH INTO EASTERN IA, NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.
REMEMBER, THIS IS JUST DAY 1 OF A MULTI DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND
POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE WINTER WEATHER IN THE COLD SECTOR. FOR MORE ON
THE LATTER, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST QPFHSD.

...WEST...

THE RATHER DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO
TAKE SHAPE, AS A VERY COLD FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, 12Z GFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES
INDICATE THIS 500MB FEATURE BEING 2.5 TIMES BELOW AVG WITH
HEIGHTS. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL DIG FROM THE PAC NW TO
SOUTHERN CA/DESERT SW WITH HELP FROM A VERY DYNAMIC UPPER-LEVEL
JET, WHILE WIDESPREAD SWRLY UPPER DI-FLUENT FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EXPECT CONCENTRATED QPF ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF OR INTO CA WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE 500MB
MID TO UPPER LOW CENTER AND IN THE WAKE OF UPPER JET, WHERE VERY
COLD 500MB TEMPS SURGE INLAND. MEANWHILE INLAND, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SWRLY UPPER DI-FLUENT FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION AND COUNTERACT THE MARGINAL PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR
HEAVY OROGRAPHIC QPF FROM MOGOLLON RIM TO THE SAN JUANS/CO ROCKIES
AND WASATCH. ALSO, THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL YIELD VERY FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW ORGANIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CONSUME MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN WY TOWARD WESTERN SD. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT
SHAPE CONCERNING THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH, ALONG
THE DETAILS ON QPF, AND WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND OF
GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE.

MUSHER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML



THIS DISCUSSION WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED-CASE FEB 26, 2018.  THE
LISTING OF ISOHYET POINTS CONTAINED BELOW WILL ALSO BE ELIMINATED
FROM THE PRODUCT FEB 26, 2018.  ISOHYET GRID INFORMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED IN A VARIETY OF BINARY FORMATS AND MADE
AVAILABLE THROUGH THE WPC GIS PAGE.

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 514780 513767 509757 508752 505748 498746 489749 486750
      483754 479762 476773 475786 471796 469797 468793 466788
      465779 464777 463772 466743 466738 464731 460721 443699
      452686 453683 451681 448680 438683 435683 433686 428688
      421694 415700 411704 410709 400729 386744 374754 370754
      365754 360755 357754 353753 350754 344760 341763 339767
      337776 335780 331785 323788 320791 318797 320802 326802
      332803 334809 335817 334824 332828 329828 328831 323832
      321827 316821 315817 312819 309822 309826 309834 313837
      315840 315846 309847 307850 307852 309856 313860 315862
      319860 322857 322853 321850 323849 325847 328848 331851
      329855 331863 334867 338867 340870 332876 335878 339876
      343874 345877 347882 347889 347896 347902 346907 342918
      337919 335923 335926 338929 338941 336946 334949 327956
      323959 319958 317960 317963 314967 312965 312961 310962
      306964 304959 297961 291961 291957 292954 294950 297950
      298943 299935 297936 295940 294945 290949 286955 283963
      277968 266972 257972 266974 275978 284981 289980 293983
      293991 288995 286998 287004 289006 291008 289010 284010
      279011 271011 266012 261012 256004 254002 250000 240999
      236999 236006 236010 238014 240018 245022 253025 258025
      261025 262027 265031 268034 273038 279039 287033 292031
      295027 297024 300023 303019 307018 307023 306027 300033
      300038 304036 307033 308031 311032 316031 323027 327025
      329022 331017 334012 339005 340001 342998 344998 352997
      356994 362994 361989 363985 366986 367994 371992 371988
      373985 377982 381981 385981 387985 388985 390981 393982
      398982 403984 405987 408991 411991 414989 414985 416983
      419987 421993 423999 421005 417007 416010 418014 418018
      406036 402040 397041 388047 386055 380048 372042 375033
      375028 374025 374021 371022 368025 364030 363049 359052
      358046 359031 354039 351048 350053 348057 342054 334053
      329051 326049 322046 319047 319050
 0.01 319050 322054 323061 316071 314077 314084 309085 304083
      282065 279063 275062 266061 259061 257069 256077 259083
      262087 265093 276100 286105 298114 304118 307122 311124
      313126 315129 319130 324126 327124 329124 329127 329131
      334126 345132 348137 350139 354140 360139 364139 368144
      370146 370149 366151 364153 360154 361158 365160 369160
      373159 377164 380166 382170 383172 382174 373183 366180
      359179 347180 345178 346174 346170 344166 341163 336162
      333162 327159 320158 318159 317162 317166 320169 324174
      330178 335181 340186 345189 347195 344200 338198 337205
      341209 351220 356225 361232 364237 366240 370242 376245
      383249 395256 401259 407261 415263 418264 421263 432262
      440260 445256 455248 459244 460238 459234 458230 460227
      467225 475219 479213 478207 474202 472201 469202 465198
      462196 461192 462187 464184 467176 472171 474170 475163
      483155 482149 483145 478146 476139 479134 484136 487138
      489141 492145 495146 497144 496135 493129 491122 487116
      486113 485110 485107 486106 485100 485088 485083 484079
      484072 482068 480059 478052 479046 479042 477038 477034
      478024 476020 477015 477004 472991 469984 467981 464981
      462977 464973 464967 462962 463955 464950 468946 472939
      476932 481919 484903 487895 489888 495877 502865 507849
      508836 510826 512804 513793 513784 514780
 0.01 444174 444169 438165 435162 433157 431152 430145 427144
      425151 426156 428161 431166 434169 433175 431178 430176
      428177 428180 432179 433181 432186 432193 436191 439189
      441183 444174
 0.01 443130 444125 444120 441118 438117 436115 433116 433121
      432124 431128 433131 435126 438129 440132 443130
 0.01 416194 415191 414189 412190 412193 413195 415195 416194
 0.01 417182 415180 413180 412179 410180 410183 411185 412188
      414188 416187 416184 417182 417182
 0.01 410223 409219 405218 400216 398214 391214 384211 373200
      369196 364195 361196 359193 355192 353193 353196 355199
      352199 349202 349205 351207 356209 361209 367209 369212
      368215 373215 377222 382227 391227 397226 406227 410223
 0.01 393778 393775 393773 392771 392769 390767 389768 388769
      387771 386772 386774 386776 387779 387781 388783 389783
      390785 392785 393782 393780 393778 393778
 0.01 388162 388157 386157 384159 382159 381157 380153 378151
      374152 372154 373159 375161 378162 380162 383165 385168
      387164 388162
 0.01 386111 387109 386107 384108 384109 383111 384111 385112
      386111
 0.01 372116 371114 370113 369112 368113 367115 369116 371117
      372116
 0.01 360112 359109 357109 355106 353104 351101 349100 348103
      348106 350108 353109 355112 356114 359114 360112
 0.01 361836 361834 361832 360831 360832 359834 358834 358837
      358839 359840 360839 361838 361836
 0.01 358076 356071 351068 349069 346068 341067 342074 344076
      344081 343089 345095 348089 351084 351075 354074 356077
      358076
 0.01 338071 338069 338067 337066 336067 335068 334069 333069
      332071 331072 329072 328072 329073 331074 333074 335074
      335073 336072 338071
 0.01 322896 320893 315890 313886 308884 301878 300882 296886
      289891 287897 287904 289908 293911 297914 303914 305915
      306918 306922 308924 312918 314913 317909 319904 319900
      321898 322896
 0.01 313998 313996 313994 311992 310991 308991 307992 306993
      305994 304995 303996 303998 302000 304002 306000 308998
      308000 309002 311000 313998
 0.01 272810 269800 267797 262799 258800 252800 249800 246803
      242811 242815 242821 246821 248818 249814 253811 258811
      259814 259818 261822 265823 266820 269817 268812 272810
 0.25 500796 500787 499783 497781 493784 490790 486802 484810
      484819 483825 480831 476836 471839 468844 466850 465856
      466861 465865 465872 470874 472877 471881 469888 465900
      464909 464915 467916 469915 471909 475893 477878 486870
      488865 490858 493843 498810 498801 500796
 0.25 456216 456211 454206 454201 454194 455186 451185 450190
      449197 449202 450207 451213 453218 456218 456216
 0.25 461163 462158 461156 460152 459150 455149 454149 452152
      451156 452159 453161 454165 455169 457170 458169 460165
      461163
 0.25 445221 445218 441216 434220 428220 425220 422222 419228
      418233 415232 411231 408232 404233 402237 398241 394240
      392237 389236 390238 395243 401248 410251 417250 420249
      424250 431250 434249 436245 429233 430231 434231 437229
      439225 443223 445221
 0.25 455052 455042 454035 451022 450011 448003 444998 440998
      438000 432011 427024 424033 421040 417044 415050 413057
      408056 404054 401055 398060 393062 389062 386063 386069
      384073 381072 380067 377063 372061 369059 370056 375054
      376053 373051 365052 364064 358064 358068 360070 366072
      369076 372082 373089 377097 378099 380096 382089 384094
      389090 389085 386079 389083 391084 393088 392093 391096
      391100 393102 398104 398099 401098 403099 403104 401106
      396110 385116 381120 379122 376122 374123 372126 373133
      376135 379136 384140 389146 396149 399149 401146 401138
      399134 403130 408127 409122 411120 417117 419115 421109
      422103 425098 433089 438085 441079 449068 452060 455052
 0.25 440728 439728 437728 436729 437729 439729 440728
 0.25 437755 434749 431745 426753 422746 419743 415750 412756
      408761 407768 406777 404782 398795 397801 398806 398816
      397823 396832 394839 393845 390863 386881 381893 379898
      375903 369916 361929 357928 355930 350934 346938 343942
      342951 340959 341965 343969 345971 350970 361966 371959
      380949 381952 385953 391951 395947 396939 402938 405943
      410940 414935 418929 422921 429914 435901 437890 440882
      441874 441863 438858 435856 434854 432846 432842 434835
      436826 436816 434806 433797 431788 427784 423781 419774
      417769 419765 422766 422763 425763 432762 435761 436759
      437755
 0.25 429731 429730 427730 425731 424731 422732 420733 422734
      424734 426733 427732 429731 429731
 0.25 417222 416222 415220 414222 414224 415224 416223 417222
 0.25 399178 401174 400170 400166 397165 394165 392166 390169
      389171 388176 389178 390181 393183 397182 398180 399178
 0.25 403153 402152 401152 400153 400155 402154 403153
 0.25 392204 391201 388197 379193 373188 364183 359183 355184
      350183 348187 350190 353188 363190 372195 378199 381202
      386205 392204
 0.25 403079 403077 403074 402074 401076 400076 399078 398081
      399081 400082 402081 403079
 0.25 396924 396922 396917 394913 392911 390913 390918 390922
      391924 391928 388929 389932 391935 393933 393929 394926
      396924
 0.25 365218 365217 364216 363215 361215 361217 363219 364219
      365218
 0.25 381056 381055 379055 378055 379056 381057 381056
 0.25 380943 380940 379939 378940 377943 379944 380943
 0.25 367122 366121 365119 364119 363118 361118 359120 361123
      363124 364124 366124 366123 367122
 0.25 365090 364089 362089 360089 360090 362092 363092 364092
      365090
 0.25 354122 356118 354115 349111 345105 343097 340091 339086
      334079 331077 327079 325083 325090 322092 319090 314088
      312090 313093 313097 311096 309089 303085 280074 274071
      267070 264072 262075 261080 264084 269089 280097 291102
      297106 303110 307114 311115 315114 319109 326111 329112
      335116 340120 345118 354122
 0.25 359058 360056 359056 357055 356056 357058 359058 359058
 0.25 356837 357834 356832 355830 353828 353827 351827 349829
      347830 347831 346833 345836 345838 345840 346841 348841
      350840 351839 352839 353838 355838 356837
 0.25 343173 343171 342170 341168 339167 338166 336167 335167
      335168 336169 337170 339171 340172 342174 343173
 0.25 348853 347851 345851 344853 344855 346857 347855 348853
 0.25 334169 333167 332166 330165 329164 327165 328167 330168
      332169 334169 334169
 0.25 339060 338058 337057 336056 334055 332055 330054 329054
      327053 325055 325057 326059 326060 328061 330061 332062
      334062 335062 337063 338063 339061 339060
 0.25 320007 321005 320005 319007 320008 320007
 0.50 485849 485846 484844 483843 481844 480846 479847 479850
      479852 480854 480855 482856 484856 484854 485851 485850
      485849
 0.50 436047 438044 437040 436034 432034 430035 427039 427050
      422053 421060 415068 412068 408072 411078 408082 405090
      407096 408101 408104 407108 403111 398113 394114 390116
      388118 387122 389127 397124 402126 406123 410111 412108
      411101 411096 414092 420081 426075 429070 431064 433054
      436047
 0.50 408244 409242 409239 409238 407237 405238 403240 402242
      402244 402245 404245 405245 406245 407245 408244
 0.50 422796 421789 419783 417781 414780 410783 406786 405792
      406802 405809 400837 398848 394862 391873 387886 383897
      383903 389905 397901 404899 407894 411884 413877 415870
      417856 416844 417837 419831 422818 422806 422796
 0.50 401074 399069 398068 396069 394068 392066 389064 388068
      387072 388077 390079 392080 393079 395077 398076 401074
 0.50 387086 384080 380076 379069 376064 370061 366063 369069
      371075 373082 377087 382084 384086 385088 387086
 0.50 377128 377127 375127 375128 376129 377128
 0.50 368189 368187 367187 366186 364185 362184 361184 359185
      358185 359186 360187 362187 364188 365189 366189 367189
      368189
 0.50 375934 374930 371929 369930 368935 366943 362944 360941
      359937 356936 354939 354945 357954 361959 366956 370948
      371939 375934
 0.50 351117 350114 348111 343105 342102 342096 340093 337092
      335084 330081 328083 329088 333092 333103 331106 331111
      333113 338114 347116 351117
 0.50 336058 334056 332056 330056 329055 327055 326057 327058
      328059 329060 330060 332060 334060 336059 336058
 0.50 288091 288087 284083 281081 278078 274077 269075 265078
      268083 270085 273088 276090 280092 285093 288091
 1.00 410861 410850 409844 407843 409845 407847 404848 401857
      399864 398867 398874 397883 395887 395890 399890 402888
      405880 407873 410863 410861
 1.00 408826 408824 406824 406827 406829 406831 407832 407831
      408829 408828 408826
 1.00 391073 391070 390070 390073 390075 391073
 1.00 377076 377073 377071 377069 376068 376066 375065 373064
      371064 370064 370066 371067 371068 373070 373071 374073
      374075 375075 376077 377076
 1.00 345112 345109 344109 343109 344111 344112 345112
 1.00 333058 332057 330057 328057 330058 332058 333058

$$




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