Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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714
FXUS04 KWBC 180613
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 AM EST THU JAN 18 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 18/1200 UTC THRU JAN 19/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---PACIFIC NORTHWEST---NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN---NORTHERN ROCKIES

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DAY 1 WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST U.S. FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE VERY SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST
CANADIAN COAST.  PW VALUES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE HEIGHT FALLS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
FRONTAL PRECIP---FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  OVERALL---MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTIONS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN SIERRA INTO THE NW CA
COAST RANGE AND FAR SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST RANGE WHERE THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE THE GREATEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT.

LOWER RIO GRANDE/SOUTH TX

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO EARLY
DAY 1 WILL FORM INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING ON A MORE EASTWARD TRACK THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EAST TX.  INCREASING PW VALUES
AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE OF TX AND SOUTH TX---ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS
WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP REMAINING OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST
IN THE VICINITY OF A SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED COASTAL TROF/FRONT.

NORTHEAST MN---UPPER LAKES---NORTHERN NY STATE INTO CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

A FAST MOVING AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL PUSH EASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MN EARLY DAY 1---ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES THURSDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN NY AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALL WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
PRECIP TOTALS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MN---MOSTLY NORTH OF THE UPPER
LAKES ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND OVER NORTHERN NY STATE INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 19/12Z
 0.01 537204 537196 537189 534178 530169 526160 514147 500138
      485127 478123 475121 475118 477114 479109 481106 484095
      483092 481089 478086 473086 469085 465089 462092 457092
      454090 450091 444090 442089 439091 435091 430086 425085
      424089 429098 430104 424105 421107 423110 425111 425115
      423120 422131 420139 421143 421146 415151 409157 402163
      399166 395168 393174 392179 397186 399190 397197 393196
      389193 383189 375185 370183 363183 359184 356187 351188
      349190 349195 349199 347200 345204 346207 351208 352213
      355221 356225 359228 365234 371241 377249 387252 391252
      396253 405256 414259 423258 432257 441256 449255 458255
      461255 466256 470258 473262 483274 490282 493286 498287
      503289 507289 511288 511284 513282 517273 520263 521256
      520252 519245 517240 513229 509220 503211 502206 502202
      505199 509200 515207 525217 531216 533212 537204
 0.01 494197 495189 494182 491179 488177 483175 480176 474184
      472186 467187 461190 459196 459200 462203 466205 470203
      473202 480200 488197 492198 494197
 0.01 491886 491878 489872 484861 480859 477862 476865 474858
      473839 472831 471824 471817 471811 467799 465794 461790
      457788 454786 453782 455769 455762 456756 459749 458746
      453748 449753 446748 446743 445741 442741 437742 432744
      432748 434765 436771 437775 438775 442786 445791 447794
      445797 441801 436803 433806 433812 436814 442814 447814
      451819 457830 458836 459840 458843 449843 446848 447851
      450851 453852 456852 462858 465861 467868 469873 470877
      469880 466885 465890 465898 467904 470905 472902 477898
      480899 480903 477909 477917 481918 485916 487912 489905
      490899 490894 491886
 0.01 462713 461710 459709 454707 447708 445710 446715 448722
      449724 447725 444727 448728 449731 450741 453740 453738
      455730 457724 460719 462713
 0.01 293014 293010 293008 291006 289006 288010 287012 286016
      285020 285022 284026 285029 288029 290029 291025 291020
      291016 293014
 0.01 281978 281974 280970 277964 273957 265957 255957 248955
      238954 234955 232957 231961 231966 231975 236980 236985
      238987 242988 244992 243997 243002 247006 252002 260992
      261987 265985 273985 279981 281978
 0.25 531202 528194 525187 521179 517174 511168 508166 504165
      503170 503175 507182 512189 516195 520200 528203 531202
 0.25 517262 517254 516248 512234 507223 502214 498209 493206
      483206 465212 459212 455214 449216 442215 433212 431206
      428202 425198 420198 414198 409201 406205 401204 392200
      383193 378189 371187 368187 367189 369192 373196 376200
      379206 382209 387213 393216 397220 402223 403225 400226
      394224 389222 384221 380225 378229 379232 385241 394246
      405250 411251 418252 428250 437248 448247 458246 463246
      469247 476254 484263 491273 494278 498281 503285 507284
      517262
 0.25 501256 501253 500253 499250 498250 499251 500253 500254
      501256 501256
 0.25 497247 497244 495241 494238 493235 492231 490228 487226
      484227 482229 483232 486234 489235 491238 493240 494243
      496247 497247
 0.25 496148 495142 491136 483129 476127 473126 469127 462126
      458128 446144 440140 439138 436138 433146 433155 432164
      427168 425174 423181 422186 423190 425192 428192 434192
      440194 442191 444190 446189 450190 453190 455189 459185
      464181 467176 472173 475170 485164 489161 488158 485156
      482155 481153 477148 476146 478145 483145 486150 489152
      494150 496148
 0.25 464171 463170 463169 462168 461168 460168 459170 459172
      460173 461173 461172 463171 464171
 0.25 457115 456110 454106 452102 448100 443100 439101 437104
      437107 439112 441116 444119 448119 453119 457116 457115
 0.25 444179 445177 445174 444173 442172 441172 439172 437172
      435174 434176 435179 436182 438181 440181 441180 443179
      444179
 0.25 423229 422226 421223 422219 423217 423214 422211 418210
      417213 417218 416222 416226 417228 420230 423229
 0.25 434100 434099 434097 433095 432095 431093 429094 430097
      431097 432099 434100 434100
 0.25 268968 268964 266962 259962 252962 246961 239961 235963
      235968 236969 242972 248973 253974 259974 265972 268968
 0.50 516264 516257 514250 512239 507228 502217 499213 497211
      494211 490214 491219 493232 495237 499242 504252 507262
      511268 514267 515265 516264
 0.50 508280 505266 503260 500256 493244 490239 485238 483240
      482239 480232 476231 473232 471238 473245 477248 482253
      485258 491268 499279 504283 508280
 0.50 491142 490139 489136 486133 484132 482130 480130 478131
      476134 479137 482137 484138 487140 488142 491142
 0.50 482160 474151 469145 466143 463143 454150 449150 445149
      440146 438143 436145 436150 437153 440160 445164 451176
      456181 459180 457179 455175 455167 459161 464161 469165
      472167 474165 482160
 0.50 462223 464220 463218 459216 454219 450220 447219 441217
      433217 427218 424220 423223 426226 430228 432230 436230
      442228 448224 453222 458224 462223 462223
 0.50 435242 435240 433238 427235 418232 414228 414223 416217
      415212 415210 412208 408209 399205 389199 383194 378192
      376190 374193 379201 386209 392214 402220 406223 405229
      394227 390229 388234 391238 395242 403247 415249 424248
      431246 435242
 0.50 446111 446109 445109 444106 443106 442105 442106 441108
      442109 443111 445112 446111
 0.50 429211 429210 428209 427207 427206 426205 424203 423202
      421201 419201 417203 417204 419205 420206 421207 422208
      423210 424210 425211 427212 428212 429211
 0.50 263968 263966 261967 259968 261968 263968 263968
 0.50 247966 246965 244965 243966 244966 246966 247966
 1.00 513260 512252 510242 507235 504228 500219 497217 495218
      493224 494228 497236 502243 504250 508258 510261 513260
 1.00 505279 505271 504265 500258 497253 494248 490242 487241
      485246 486249 488257 490262 493267 497273 500277 503280
      505279
 1.00 480241 480239 479236 478233 476233 474234 473237 474237
      474239 475241 476242 478243 480241
 1.00 467150 468148 466148 465149 465151 465154 467152 467150
 1.00 428243 428240 425237 421236 419235 416234 414235 412236
      412240 413242 415243 417244 420245 423245 427244 428243
 1.00 413219 408215 402210 397206 390201 384198 380197 381199
      385205 391211 396215 400217 404218 407221 409225 410225
      413221 413219
 1.50 509254 509248 508242 506237 504234 502229 500225 498221
      496220 495223 495231 496234 499238 502242 504247 506251
      508254 509254
 1.50 504276 504268 501262 498258 494251 491246 487244 487249
      488252 490258 494264 496269 500274 502277 504276
 1.50 402216 402213 400211 398208 395206 393205 390204 388203
      390206 391208 393210 395212 398214 399216 402216
 2.00 503275 503269 501264 499261 496257 494252 491248 488247
      489252 491257 494261 495265 498269 501274 503275
 2.00 507248 507243 505240 504238 503235 501233 500230 499226
      498223 496223 495228 496231 497234 499237 501239 502241
      504244 506247 507248
 2.00 400213 400212 399211 398210 397209 396210 396211 397212
      398213 400214 400213

$$





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