Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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751
FXUS04 KWBC 210900
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017


PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 21/1200 UTC THRU NOV 24/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE ON THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF DAY 1...THEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...MAINLY
OVER WESTERN WA. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.

THE MOST RECENT IR IMAGES SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
STRETCHING FROM NEAR 20N 140W TO A POSITION OFF WELL WEST OF THE
NORTHERN CA COAST. THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES IN THE HEART OF THE PLUME. AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALONG CA COAST DURING DAY 1...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS SHUNTED TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A 45 TO 65 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TRANSPORTS 1.25/1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (WHICH
IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) TO
THE WA COAST...MAINLY BETWEEN 21/18Z AND 22/00Z (DURING THE BEST
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK
APPROACHING THE WA COAST TOWARD 22/00Z).

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TARGETS THE OLYMPIC RANGE IN WA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...AND THERE IS A MULTI MODEL SIGNAL FOR 5.00+ INCH
AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN FACT...THE 00Z HREF MEAN AND
00Z NBM SHOWED LOCAL 6.00+ INCH AMOUNTS...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW...THESE AMOUNTS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OVER 0.50 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OLYMPIC
RANGE BETWEEN 21/18Z AND 22/03Z. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS PLACED
OVER THE OLYMPIC RANGE DURING DAY 1.

FURTHER EAST...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSES THE DEEPER MOISTURE ON
THE WA CASCADES...WITH LOCAL 2.50 TO 4.50 INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RANGE. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...00Z HREF
MEAN AND THE 00Z NBM) SHOWED LOCAL 6.00+ INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN WA CASCADES...BUT THESE AMOUNTS SEEM HIGH...BASED ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SNOW LEVELS RISE DURING THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO A MARGINAL RISK WAS PLACED OVER THE WA
CASCADES FOR DAY 1.

THE MOISTURE...WHILE NOT AS ROBUST AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
WESTERN WA...REMAINS AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1. UPSLOPE FLOW (AUGMENTED
BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER
WESTERN MT INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY) AND SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
MAKE THE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE LOCAL 1.25
TO 1.75 INCH QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BITTERROOTS IN ID AND
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE IN MT. SNOW LEVELS RISE IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO MOST OF THE QPF IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BITTERROOTS...SO A MARGINAL RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED HERE FOR DAY
1.


...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST....

A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST DURING DAY 1. MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT QPF WITH THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL QPF IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE LOWER LAKES. THERE WAS GENERALLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PLACEMENT OF THE
QPF MAXIMUM...SO THE WPC QPF WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE
00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM/NBM WERE USED OT AID IN BETTER
DELINEATING THE PLACEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT QPF.

AHEAD OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST US...A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 0.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR INTO THESE REGION. INSTABILITY IS NEARLY NON EXISTENT WITH THE
FRONT...SO MOST OF THE QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT AND LONG WAVE TROUGH...THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SETS UP CONDITIONS MORE CONDUCIVE TO
LAKE EFFECT CIRCULATIONS. THE BEST FETCH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
LOWER LAKES...WHERE LOCAL 0.25 TO 0.35 INCH QPF AMOUNTS WERE
PLACED DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.


...SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON A FRONT
BOUNDARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY
1. MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD
SUPPLY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT PRODUCES LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SPINNING UP LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF ARE CLOSER WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW...SO THESE MODELS COMPRISE
THE BASIS FOR THE WPC QPF.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE DEEP MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING
FROM FL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTERACTS WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY 1. AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.00+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF
NJ...NYC AND LONG ISLAND IN NY...AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 22/06Z AND 22/12Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...COINCIDING WITH MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 100-250
J/KG. THE RESULTING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TAPS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE... PRODUCING A SWATH OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NC/SOUTHERN DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN
NJ...CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND. THERE WAS A HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN AXIS OF
0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF QPF OVER FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND DURING
THIS PERIOD,


...GULF COAST...

INFLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING TX AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO DURING DAY 1 COULD SUPPLY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
PRODUCES CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THERE WAS SOME
SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE INFLOW...WHICH RESULT IN
DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DUE
TO THE SPREAD...THE WPC QPF WAS BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/12Z ECMWF...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WAS ALSO USED IN AN
ATTEMPT TO BETTER PLACE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX DURING DAY
1...A LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTS 1.25/1.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO UPPER TX COAST AND SOUTHWEST LA...WHERE 00Z
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LOCAL 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE NEAR THE
COAST. THE RESULTING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES OF QPF OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AND NEARBY SOUTHWEST
LA...BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER 22/00Z. WHILE THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONG 00Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THE AMOUNT OF INFLOW (AND ITS POSITION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT) VARIES BY A FAIR AMOUNT. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE 00Z NAM CONUS NEST...00Z NBM AND THE 00Z
WRF ARW) SHOWED AXES OF 2.00 INCHES OF QPF SPANNING FROM THE UPPER
TX COAST TO WEST OF NEW ORLEANS BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS.

THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE ARE
PLAUSIBLE...THOUGH IT NOT CLEAR WHERE THEY WOULD OCCUR. THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH (GENERALLY ABOVE 3.00
INCHES)...SO AT THIS POINT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER FLASH FLOODING
WOULD OCCUR IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WERE REALIZED.



DAYS 2/3...

WPC QPF IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.


...NORTHWEST...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF
TROPICALLY-SOURCED MOISTURE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THURSDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET NEAR 50 KNOTS...STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TOPOGRAPHY
MAKES FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER THE OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN
CASCADES THROUGH THIS TIME. SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 2 (12Z
WED-12Z THU). AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN WA
THURSDAY WHICH DIRECTS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FARTHER SOUTH TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A MAX IN PRECIP FOR DAY 3 (12Z THU-12Z FRI)
IS OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES...BUT COOLING ALOFT WILL LOWER SNOW
ELEVATIONS THERE...SO THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND NO
EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK AREAS WERE ADDED FOR DAY 3.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WESTERN WA HYDROLOGIC
FORECASTS/WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM THE FORECAST OFFICES.


...NORTHEAST...

A POSITIVELY TILTED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SWING INTO A NEUTRAL TILT AND PHASE
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ALLOW
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A COASTAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER OR JUST EAST OF EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND THUS HAS A SWATH OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER EASTERN MA AND
EASTERN ME WHILE THE QUICKER 00Z GFS HAS THE SWATH OFFSHORE. THE
00Z UKMET IS IN BETWEEN AND WAS LEANED ON AS A COMPROMISE. THE
BULK OF THIS RAIN WHICH COULD AVERAGE ONE INCH WILL NOT BE
CONVECTIVE...SO THERE IS NOT AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT AT THIS
TIME. THE RAIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM ME LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/END OF DAY 2.


...SOUTHEAST/FL...

LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL MERELY DRIFT EAST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST US AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. A NOTABLE SHIFT IN
00Z GUIDANCE PLACES THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER NORTHERN FL FOR DAY 2
(12Z WED-12Z THU) AND THEN MORE ONSHORE FOR DAY 3 (12Z THU-12Z
FRI) AS OPPOSED TO OFF THE GA/SC COAST. 1.5 INCH PWATS WHICH ARE
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL LINGER OFF OR NEAR THE
GA/SC COAST THURSDAY WITH THE COASTAL SFC LOW AIDING HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPMENT WEST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF SC. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
PLACEMENT OF THIS HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY WARRANT AN EXCESSIVE RAIN
RISK SHOULD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OCCUR.

HAYES/JACKSON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML



24HR QP VT 22/12Z
 0.01 533219 535205 536191 533175 535159 537127 539111 537101
      531082 525071 523066 521060 516050 515046 512044 507037
      504034 502034 494038 492040 490045 487051 486057 487072
      496089 499098 503106 506114 510123 514137 514143 514147
      512148 504143 499135 493129 487125 477122 467121 457123
      449126 441131 436135 433139 431144 429155 428158 430163
      432169 431176 427180 424185 424191 427194 432198 434201
      436206 436210 429206 424205 421206 415205 413207 408215
      402223 398235 398241 396245 391253 390259 386263 382267
      379270 377274 375281 376285 381288 386287 394286 402285
      405285 409287 426298 440309 450315 455318 459320 467319
      472314 479310 484305 495291 503289 511283 513280 516275
      520266 527244 533219
 0.01 539802 538785 537770 533741 531737 531733 530726 524718
      516710 512708 510710 508708 504709 501712 496714 494717
      494722 493725 493733 489736 486736 485733 484718 481705
      479703 476701 470698 456707 448714 445717 443722 439727
      432729 427731 426735 437732 442731 447731 447734 446735
      441737 430739 426742 421744 418747 415752 413756 412761
      411766 413769 414772 413776 411779 404784 399785 396788
      389793 378806 376810 373812 371806 364806 363804 364802
      377789 388775 394768 400760 405753 408749 411745 414739
      417731 422723 427716 433708 438701 440694 439685 436683
      431680 415677 405676 401676 397677 392676 386677 373680
      357688 339693 328696 323697 320700 301708 267730 262733
      259737 254743 249750 247759 246764 247767 251768 255766
      263763 271760 277760 281761 280765 277767 274771 268773
      262778 258782 255787 253792 251796 246803 247809 249813
      254815 259813 263812 267813 269818 269823 263832 257838
      251841 245846 241851 238860 240864 243865 248866 249869
      247871 241875 235886 234892 234898 235923 236933 237944
      239954 235956 233961 232967 233973 237974 242974 245973
      250973 253974 265975 275975 281974 285973 296973 301971
      306968 308967 309964 311959 312954 312947 312941 310935
      304916 302911 299907 296905 292901 291898 290891 291883
      291877 289873 289868 290864 299860 302857 304855 310852
      315852 318844 316838 315832 314830 317828 321826 327825
      330826 331829 335839 341848 350851 354846 357835 359830
      364829 369824 374817 380812 387807 392808 394812 394816
      393819 393824 394831 396836 402843 400848 400854 399857
      402863 407866 412866 415864 418865 419867 424867 427864
      430861 429854 429850 428850 424851 423838 425833 428830
      430825 432822 436821 440822 447827 450831 449837
 0.01 449837 440844 438856 440861 443863 448860 453857 458861
      460868 460877 459883 459892 461900 463903 467900 471895
      474890 476884 478880 481877 484877 486879 488883 489890
      490894 492894 500891 506883 517863 523852 527841 530835
      533828 534823 536816 539802
 0.01 499116 496107 490101 486093 482093 479097 478102 473102
      463101 460103 459108 461111 466114 476114 481115 484118
      492119 497118 499116
 0.01 454115 455106 454098 451093 447091 431090 427086 424089
      426095 427100 423102 419106 419112 414113 411112 410109
      411099 410095 407095 405100 405108 403111 400113 390116
      393117 399116 411118 418119 421126 421130 420134 416139
      418143 417151 421151 421147 423143 424137 424132 426129
      429124 434122 444119 448117 453116 454115
 0.01 427058 427050 425046 422041 417038 413038 411042 409048
      406053 399052 395054 392058 389061 388065 389070 390077
      393081 406082 413078 415075 417074 418071 421069 424066
      425060 427058
 0.01 373812 371810 369811 368813 370815 371815 373812
 0.25 523192 522188 522183 521173 517166 514163 510160 508164
      506163 498159 494156 497154 498149 495146 492140 487133
      480129 471127 469133 466137 468141 471143 474141 478141
      482142 482147 473148 468145 466142 461142 455145 454150
      450151 447149 439147 436149 434152 435156 437159 443166
      443192 448194 453189 455187 458188 462191 464193 464198
      457203 455208 452211 447215 441215 435218 426220 425227
      423230 420231 417230 415227 415222 413221 410226 412235
      413244 410250 407253 402258 397264 396268 397271 399274
      404275 411278 419280 425283 435288 442292 449296 456299
      463300 468298 473294 479291 485286 491284 498282 503279
      505276 507273 509264 513257 514248 514242 512237 509228
      506220 505210 503204 503198 506196 523192
 0.25 521734 520729 519726 517724 515724 514728 514730 514736
      515741 515746 517745 518742 519740 520737 521734
 0.25 517801 517790 515781 512775 509779 507785 506792 504800
      502807 502816 505821 511821 515817 516809 517801
 0.25 485228 486225 484225 482224 481224 480224 481225 481226
      482227 484228 485228 485228
 0.25 463171 462169 461168 460167 459166 457166 457167 456169
      457171 458172 460173 462172 463171 463171
 0.25 442757 440757 439759 439760 441760 442757 442757
 0.25 444111 443106 440105 436105 434102 430103 427104 423106
      424110 428113 431114 435114 439112 443112 444111
 0.25 434097 433096 432094 431094 429093 429094 429095 430097
      431098 432099 434098 434097
 0.25 417714 415711 411713 406717 393729 383739 380741 380739
      383733 392722 397714 398709 397705 394706 391709 387713
      382718 378721 374721 370722 367720 364717 365715 363710
      360706 357704 353704 346708 339713 333717 329722 325727
      321734 315740 311746 307753 303758 293767 288772 284778
      280780 277780 273781 271784 268798 270804 278807 283810
      285813 286818 288828 286831 282833 274834 266839 261843
      257848 256851 256856 259860 262860 270857 274855 279856
      287854 292851 294843 291836 290832 291828 298824 302818
      304814 308812 333798 338793 342786 347779 350772 354764
      361763 366757 368756 370761 375764 381763 389758 394752
      397745 401739 410728 415720 417714
 0.25 424798 424796 423795 421795 420796 419797 418799 417802
      416802 417802 419803 420802 421801 422801 423799 424798
 0.25 405070 406068 405067 403066 401066 400067 399067 399069
      401070 403070 405070 405070
 0.25 395064 396062 395060 393061 392064 392066 393066 394065
      395064
 0.25 374749 374748 372748 370750 369752 371753 373753 373751
      374749 374749
 0.25 298943 299937 296931 294928 292922 287914 286910 286904
      285897 284891 282886 280883 277882 274883 270886 264892
      255897 249901 246905 245911 245923 246935 249945 253955
      251959 253964 264966 274967 282963 290958 292955 295950
      298943
 0.50 508248 510242 509237 506225 504216 500209 495204 490201
      485200 471203 469208 465208 460207 457210 453215 449217
      445216 441216 440218 440222 442224 445227 450228 452230
      447233 441236 435242 430242 427240 421239 420247 414254
      404264 404267 409268 413267 416268 420269 423269 429267
      444264 449264 453267 457269 460271 460281 463291 466292
      469291 474288 487280 500274 503270 504260 506253 508248
 0.50 511186 511181 511178 510173 509170 508167 506166 503165
      500164 498167 501169 502171 503176 503179 504182 506185
      509187 511186
 0.50 487231 488228 487227 487226 486224 484223 483222 481222
      479222 478223 478225 479226 480228 481229 482230 483231
      485232 486231 487231
 0.50 491173 489162 487157 484156 481151 476152 472151 469148
      466146 461146 459149 458154 463161 464168 467172 470174
      475175 478178 482178 488174 491173
 0.50 487139 486134 482133 481132 478131 474131 472131 470135
      469137 472140 475140 478139 480140 482140 485141 487139
 0.50 463178 462175 459176 456178 454174 452166 454158 446156
      443154 441155 442162 445165 446169 450175 454181 458182
      460181 463178
 0.50 442108 440107 439107 438107 438108 440108 442108
 0.50 410723 410719 408719 403722 400726 395731 392734 387739
      385741 385745 390744 394739 399735 402731 407727 410723
 0.50 361740 354726 354722 356720 357716 357712 353708 345711
      334719 331724 328731 324737 320741 311753 307758 305765
      301770 301776 298782 293786 290788 286787 280784 275786
      274789 275793 277799 283803 290804 294805 296807 297810
      300812 304810 307808 314805 319802 324798 330793 336781
      340775 342768 349756 354753 357748 361740
 0.50 296939 289927 285920 281916 279913 278908 277900 274896
      271896 266899 255907 253911 252916 251923 252932 255939
      257946 261953 265960 267961 272961 285955 290949 292943
      296939
 0.50 280848 280846 279845 277845 276844 274844 272844 270844
      269845 268846 268847 267849 269851 271852 272851 274851
      276851 278850 280849 280848
 1.00 505242 505236 505231 502221 500213 495208 491208 487205
      482204 478205 468213 465212 461213 455217 453220 455223
      460225 461228 457231 451234 445237 442239 441242 447244
      455242 459242 463245 465247 466251 468260 469265 471266
      475271 479269 486267 494267 497267 499265 499260 498256
      496249 492240 487234 484236 482234 477228 469228 468227
      470222 472219 475218 483221 489226 495240 497242 501245
      505242
 1.00 485161 483159 482158 482161 483162 485161
 1.00 477164 478162 477159 476159 475158 473157 472156 470154
      470153 469151 467152 465154 465157 466159 468162 469165
      471165 473165 474165 476165 477164
 1.00 480137 479136 477135 476135 474136 473136 474138 475138
      477138 479137 480137
 1.00 450225 450222 448220 447219 445219 443219 443220 443221
      445222 445223 446224 448225 449225 450225
 1.00 433249 432247 430247 429248 428248 426249 424250 424251
      422252 422253 424254 424253 426253 428252 429252 431251
      433249
 1.00 354744 353736 351731 348718 344720 340724 333731 329740
      328742 325743 322747 327754 327761 328764 330766 335765
      338762 337758 341755 350749 354744
 1.00 315794 313792 310793 306795 303795 301797 301800 301804
      303804 305803 309802 310800 312798 314795 315794
 1.00 287941 286935 283929 279926 274923 270920 266924 265931
      264937 266943 270947 274949 278950 280949 284945 287941
 1.50 503236 502228 499219 498214 496212 490211 487208 485207
      478207 474211 474216 476217 484221 489223 491225 494233
      498239 501240 503237 503236
 1.50 497263 497254 494249 490242 489239 486237 484240 482239
      479232 478230 475229 469232 465231 460232 449237 448239
      449240 452240 458239 466240 471244 475250 480251 486255
      490260 495265 497263
 1.50 470220 471218 470215 468214 465213 463214 460215 458216
      456218 455221 457223 460224 463225 467225 468222 470220
 1.50 473161 471160 471158 470157 469155 469154 468155 467157
      468159 469160 470161 471161 473161 473161
 1.50 348738 348732 346725 341729 337731 336734 334739 333744
      334750 336752 340750 343746 345743 347739 348738
 2.00 501235 500227 498219 496215 493215 490214 488211 485208
      481208 476210 475215 478217 485220 490221 492225 494229
      495233 497237 499238 501235
 2.00 496262 497256 495253 491246 489243 487240 485244 482242
      479234 477231 474232 471234 470236 472241 474244 479246
      484246 486249 490256 494263 496262
 2.00 470218 468215 467214 466214 465215 463215 462215 461216
      459217 457218 456219 457221 457222 459222 460222 462223
      464223 465223 467222 468220 469218 470218
 2.00 466234 465234 464233 463233 463236 464236 465234 466234
 3.00 496260 496259 496257 495255 494254 494252 493251 492250
      491249 489249 490252 490253 492255 492256 493258 493259
      494260 496260 496260
 3.00 497231 497229 497228 497226 497223 496222 495220 494223
      494224 495225 495228 496231 497231 497231
 3.00 488218 488216 488213 487212 486211 484210 482210 481210
      479211 477212 477214 477215 478216 480216 482217 483218
      485218 486219 488218
 3.00 479241 479239 479236 478233 477233 476232 474233 473234
      472236 473239 475241 476242 478242 479241
 4.00 484214 482213 480213 479212 478213 479213 480214 482215
      484215 484214
 4.00 478238 478236 477234 476234 474234 474237 475239 477239
      478238
 5.00 476238 476235 475237 475238 476238

24HR QP VT 23/12Z
 0.01 494333 486337 479334 476333 475330 471325 471322 470318
      466313 460311 458306 452302 445295 443287 443283 439281
      434278 431273 428272 424274 414279 408278 401276 394274
      390276 387280 381280 376279 373274 368263 367259 372257
      374248 381238 390231 399225 414212 419208 422208 423211
      427213 433215 435211 436207 435201 434194 435189 436187
      438181 438174 435160 439149 445138 466131 469127 473125
      478127 484129 489133 493138 503145 508154 512159 518160
      521165 525167 526170 529175 533179 538185 542186 544189
 0.01 520670 515677 512681 508684 502687 499689 498692 497698
      496705 494712 490721 487727 482729 478732 472734 469737
      467739 467742 469746 465747 461746 454747 451748 449751
      446754 438763 436765 432764 428761 425758 423756 422753
      421744 418741 414739 411737 408739 400745 396748 389750
      385752 378754 372755 366756 363756 361758 358763 355766
      352766 352764 348761 343761 337764 334767 331770 328775
      327777 328780 331785 333789 334796 335804 334811 334818
      333823 330833 328840 326842 319848 312855 303860 299861
      294865 288872 282879 272886 269888 265889 260889 256887
      246869 245864 244856 242851 239848 235846 231841 229836
      228831 231827 234825 237822 237817 236812 237807 237802
      239796 239793 238790 234794 227799 222802 217804 214794
      213785 215780 215774 215771 217768 220766 223763 230761
      238757 247759 253759 255760 254762 251766 249772 239785
      238788 240791 247790 251790 253795 255797 256795 259792
      265791 271789 272786 270783 266780 265773 271772 275770
      280769 281765 280762 280757 282754 286756 290761 295758
      298755 301750 300747 297746 293742 289741 286736 284729
      286724 293716 300704
 0.01 399643 398645 397646 397647 395649 394651 392651 391651
      390651 388650 387651 385650 385649 383650
 0.01 551841 551828 550820 549816 548811 546805 542796 539789
      535784 526785 521786 519789 513792 508797 504805 502810
      499813 492815 490823 489830 487833 483841 477843 472837
      467833 463835 462839 463844 465848 468854 472858 472865
      474869 474875 474881 476883 481877 486871 491863 498850
      500847 501844 504844 511841 517844 520846 519850 520858
      522861 525870 528875 537875 540874 543871 546863 549851
      551841
 0.01 515033 516022 516017 515011 510993 507987 505980 502972
      498965 501957 500949 491939 482929 476925 470922 467920
      469917 470907 468905 464905 458908 459915 461923 459930
      459940 460945 460950 462957 471969 474971 474974 475982
      475994 478002 480009 483015 488021 492028 494033 499039
      503044 508047 512045 513042 514035 515033
 0.01 460795 459793 458793 456793 454794 453796 453799 453801
      455803 456801 458798 459795 460795
 0.01 455828 451818 445809 441805 436806 432803 429800 421792
      419790 418795 422806 430810 437818 440821 444824 452828
      455828
 0.01 451107 449102 446096 440094 433094 427094 426098 423100
      424105 428109 433113 437117 442120 444121 445118 449112
      451107
 0.01 450078 449078 448075 448073 446072 445070 443070 441072
      443074 444075 446077 448078 449078 450078
 0.01 452860 451857 450855 448858 448860 450860 452860 452860
 0.01 414066 414064 412061 412064 414066 414066
 0.01 412068 410068 408068 407067 406068 407068 408068 410068
      412068 412068
 0.01 396791 394791 391792 389794 386795 384797 383798 381800
      379803 378805 380805 383804 385802 387802 390799 390797
      391794 395791 396791
 0.01 285954 285943 283933 281926 277923 274923 269927 266931
      265935 263942 262948 259951 255951 251953 248954 246958
      245962 242965 240968 241972 245978 244982 245986 248992
      253993 257991 261991 263988 262978 274970 279964 283958
      285954
 0.01 265815 265812 264811 263811 262809 261809 260808 258808
      257807 257805 256804 255806 255808 255810 255812 257813
      259814 260815 262815 264816 265815
 0.25 505311 500309 498310 496309 492312 489315 486313 482305
      479297 476288 473278 467270 436256 430259 422262 406264
      391265 385260 383256 386251 396240 402235 410231 418234
      424235 427235 432235 436232 442227 448224 452218 458210
      466207 472206 479200 484196 492200 499204 505211 511217
      516225 519230 521237 524243 528248
 0.25 501620 491624 481629 476631 471630 461628 452629 447630
      442632 431638 423644 415650 411654 407656 395663 390663
      387661 381661 376664 367670 350683 334695 326701 322706
      320711 319716 321721 329727 338732 347734 351736 357736
      366738 379738 384736 388733 408724 416719 422716 426712
      441699 462689 470685 474680 478677 483674 486668 488663
      492661 495660 501655 508651 512646
 0.25 528199 525175 523171 519168 514171 508164 503162 498161
      495159 492155 491150 490143 485136 481134 477137 477140
      479144 477149 474151 471153 467156 468162 470168 475175
      481182 485184 489183 493181 498181 502182 506185 515189
      520196 522200 524202 527201 528199
 0.25 459180 460178 459177 458176 456176 455176 454178 454179
      453181 453183 453185 455186 457185 457184 458182 459180
      459180
 0.25 325816 325808 322803 319798 318789 317781 313777 308775
      302777 295786 291789 286793 281802 278807 278815 278819
      276821 271823 259828 250834 247838 248846 255854 260857
      262862 273865 280866 286864 290860 294857 300854 307852
      314845 317840 320834 325816
 0.25 260968 259966 259965 259966 258968 259968 260968
 0.50 525253 520245 516235 512225 506216 499209 488205 483205
      479206 471211 467210 463212 459214 457219 455226 453231
      446238 444242 444246 446248 453248 456248 467252 472253
      476256 480266 485276 487280 491284 493287 496293 510290
      513292
 0.50 504633 502628 498627 493628 488632 483636 479636 470635
      462634 457635 451636 440642 431647 424653 416660 412663
      407667 395671 388669 384666 378667 363682 349696 342704
      336712 335717 336723 340726 345727 368727 373726 377723
      385716 390712 395710 398712 401716 404717 410718 415715
      418711 428703 435697 451684 468669 472662 477658 480653
      484649 489646 493646 496644 502639 504633
 0.50 487233 488231 487228 487227 486225 484223 483222 481222
      479222 478223 477224 476225 477225 479227 479228 480229
      481231 482232 483233 484233 486233 487233
 0.50 490167 488164 486162 485159 484157 482154 479155 477157
      475159 473160 473162 474164 478165 481167 483168 485169
      487169 490167
 0.50 434249 432246 430241 426239 422238 414239 406242 398245
      395247 393251 395255 398257 401257 407259 412259 416258
      423256 430253 434249
 0.50 318806 314799 309792 305792 299793 292797 289807 288816
      285825 284831 280832 277831 271832 264836 257841 257845
      259848 267853 275856 278857 283858 288856 292853 298849
      305848 311842 315833 317824 319819 318813 318806
 1.00 525260 520252 515241 512231 506222 500214 491210 486208
      481208 478211 476213 477216 480219 485221 488224 490232
      487236 483237 478230 474229 470231 467234 466240 469243
      474247 482252 487262 493271 497279 500284 503286 506284
      509281 512278 516279
 1.00 469218 468215 466215 465216 466218 468218 469218
 1.00 464650 460645 454645 448648 443653 436665 429676 426684
      423689 419695 417698 419698 431691 436687 442682 449670
      454666 458661 462655 464650
 1.00 387684 385678 381673 372681 362687 353695 346704 340714
      339720 343722 350721 357719 368714 373711 377706 385697
      387692 387684
 1.00 309824 307823 304823 298823 297826 298830 298834 296836
      294838 291837 288837 287839 287843 289846 290848 294847
      297843 301838 303833 307829 309824
 1.50 522265 514241 509230 503220 499216 493215 487211 482212
      482216 485218 490221 492230 493235 496241 500245 502249
      504255 500253 493243 488239 483241 480236 476231 472233
      470238 473243 478246 481247 484251 490263 496273 498277
      503281 506280 510275 514272 519272
 1.50 377689 375687 371687 366688 359692 354697 350704 348712
      350714 354715 360713 367708 372703 375696 377689
 2.00 517265 518260 516254 513245 510235 504227 499219 496218
      493220 493225 493232 494236 497240 503247 507256 509267
      513270 516267 517265
 2.00 506276 506269 504262 500256 497251 493246 488242 485243
      486248 488254 491260 493266 496270 500277 504278 506276
 2.00 480241 480239 479236 478233 477233 476232 475232 474232
      473234 472235 472236 472239 473241 475242 476243 478243
      480241
 2.00 371695 370691 367689 364691 361694 358697 355701 353704
      354709 358710 361708 366705 369702 371697 371695
 3.00 509246 508242 507239 506236 504234 502230 500227 499225
      498223 496224 494228 495231 496234 498237 501239 502241
      505244 506245 509246
 3.00 503273 502267 501263 498258 497254 494250 489247 489252
      491258 493261 495265 498269 501273 503273
 3.00 477238 477237 477235 476234 475235 474237 475239 477238
      477238
 4.00 496260 496258 496257 495254 494253 492252 491253 492254
      492256 493257 494259 496260 496260

24HR QP VT 24/12Z
 0.01 496329 488316 484310 478302 470299 464292 461285 458272
      457268 453266 445263 436260 429260 412260 408261 403259
      397255 389249 383246 382242 382236 382232 384229 391222
      394213 397210 399213 401217 403216 410213 416212 422207
      428206 431208 434208 437203 439197 438193 436192 431190
      429182 431180 433183 437184 440183 442180 443174 441169
      439166 422156 420154 421149 425150 427153 432153 433147
      437141 441134 445126 447122 446117 438118 429116 422117
      419116 419111 423105 427097 431092 440092 444091 446088
      447079 446074 448063 449057 448052 448047 450044 452043
      455039 460033 467031 470032 471037 472042 472050 473061
      475083 475094 479097 482097 480097 477101 476107 478111
      480115 483119 490123 501134 514140 518143 522147 527153
      533160 536163 537167 536176 536182 541186 544190 536221
      536220 535219 533218 531217 530218 530221 529224 529226
      529229 528231 528234 528236 527239 526241 526244 525246
      525249 526251 527252
 0.01 550158 547153 546146 547129 547111 546105 544098 539094
      536087 534072 534062 530058 521052 517049 516042 519039
      521034 523028 522024 520023 516022 517014 513002 512996
      519995 510968 506956 502947 501943 498943 497952 494965
      492967 489967 486967 483965 481961 483957 496937 490924
      484919 477910 475904 474897 471890 471884 464873 462866
      458859 457856 455855 453850 445805 444795 445787 446784
      448781 452776 456771 457765 457756 456753 454752 445760
      443764 438766 436759 435755 436748 437743 442737 447736
      450735 453730 454727 453726 449726 448720 448716 449714
      453708 463702 466699 469701 470705 471709 474709 479706
      481703 484700 487699 491700 501706 505709 509712 514722
      517728 518736 517741 514746 507752 498759 488768 484771
      481773 481777 487788 492799 494805 496813 497818 498826
      497833 494837 489840 486844 491848 495852 500855 505859
      512866 515869 519873 522876 526881 531888 537899 539904
      542909 548923 550929 552936 554943 556949 559955 561960
      566974 568991
 0.01 522688 520679 517669 510653 507645 503637 500632 499643
      498648 496651 494655 491656 486662 483671 480678 480686
      483687 485685 493682 501697 506702 509703 512702 518698
      521695 522691 522688
 0.01 472193 473191 472189 470189 468188 467189 466190 464190
      464191 463192 462193 462195 464196 465198 467197 469196
      470195 471194 472193
 0.01 485005 485002 485000 485997 484995 484994 482992 482994
      480997 480999 482002 482004 483007 485007 485005
 0.01 427172 425170 425169 424169 422167 422166 420166 419164
      419163 418166 419166 420168 420169 421171 422171 423172
      425172 427173 427172
 0.01 428793 428791 428790 426790 426791 425793 425794 425796
      425798 425799 427798 427796 428793 428793
 0.01 394669 393666 388668 383671 372679 346694 340699 335701
      323709 320711 318713 314719 309725 304731 289750 284756
      279762 271771 263781 253789 240797 237812 234818 231822
      228828 226834 225841 226846 228849 233854 239857 249863
      251871 255875 258876 262878 268878 278877 283873 289861
      293856 298852 308845 314840 317838 322836 339818 343812
      347803 350798 352791 359763 363756 367748 369741 371734
      372725 375720 378714 380711 380709 375710 373707 377701
      381695 386688 387683 388677 394669
 0.25 522264 513236 510218 508210 505204 504201 504196 507192
      512189 517190 521190 525184 525177 524174 520167 504149
      493138 489133 485129 479125 473124 463129 455137 452146
      450149 447150 439150 438154 439157 447166 449173 450183
      453186 457185 462181 465175 469171 475170 480173 489183
      491185 491191 486195 467206 454210 443213 433216 428218
      425219 424223 423228 422231 414230 411232 410235 410240
      412242 415248 420250 426248 430245 434242 442243 450245
      457244 463244 469247 474250 479254 487265 495278 503283
      509286 513289
 0.25 561082 562073 562065 562059 560054 558048 556045 554050
      554056 553064 553071 554078 555083 557087 560084 561082
 0.25 557029 558021 555015 553004 550995 547991 544989 538981
      535981 534987 533002 533010 534016 535021 538027 546024
      550024 554027 557029
 0.25 349736 348732 344731 336735 328738 319743 314748 309754
      296767 284775 270787 247807 244810 242813 240817 240821
      241825 245826 245829 243830 243835 244841 245844 252848
      257852 265857 269859 273858 278852 283846 286843 291841
      297840 303836 316825 322821 328814 334808 337799 340792
      343785 347765 349758 349751 349736
 0.50 516272 515266 513260 510246 507231 506223 504215 499204
      495199 491198 481202 471207 463212 451214 442217 432224
      434227 439231 447232 452232 457231 460232 461234 465238
      471242 480249 485254 487260 495269 501273 506273 511272
      516272
 0.50 500172 501168 500164 496162 495161 492159 489158 485157
      484161 485164 486167 488169 490173 492174 495176 498175
      500172
 0.50 487231 487228 485227 484225 482224 481223 479223 478223
      477224 477225 477227 477228 478229 480230 481231 482232
      483232 484232 485232 487231 487231
 0.50 491142 489136 486133 478130 473131 470135 468140 463143
      459144 457152 456158 456160 459162 464164 468164 472162
      474160 475156 473150 472143 476140 479140 483143 488145
      491142
 0.50 424246 425244 424242 424241 422240 421239 419238 417238
      416239 415241 416244 418246 420247 421247 423246 424246
 0.50 338753 337746 335745 332746 326750 319747 314751 311756
      303768 299773 293776 287781 281785 277789 272793 266797
      263803 260809 256814 250818 249821 250825 254830 258836
      261837 265838 270837 274837 277836 282833 288835 292835
      295833 299828 305826 313823 318819 326810 329807 331803
      332796 334788 337782 339774 337767 337760 338753
 0.50 278805 278803 278802 276802 274802 273803 273805 274807
      276806 278805 278805
 0.50 274847 274845 274842 272842 270842 268842 267843 266844
      266845 266847 267849 269850 271851 272850 273849 274847
      274847
 1.00 499229 501220 499213 495208 490204 480206 475209 470212
      461218 450219 460224 465222 471222 476220 481220 491227
      496231 499229
 1.00 481242 481239 480237 480236 479235 478234 476234 474234
      473236 473239 475241 476242 478242 480242 481242
 1.00 328790 327782 326775 323769 318765 318762 318757 315757
      312760 309766 304777 301789 298802 299810 301814 304814
      310814 315812 323803 326799 327792 328790
 1.00 264817 263815 262813 262815 261817 262818 264817
 1.50 498221 498216 496212 493209 488207 485207 481209 477210
      475211 475214 478215 483218 486221 491223 494226 498224
      498221
 1.50 321791 321786 318787 316787 313790 311791 310793 308796
      308798 310801 311801 314798 316798 319795 319793 321791
 1.50 313783 312781 311779 310779 310780 308781 308782 308784
      309786 309787 311787 312786 312785 313783
 2.00 497221 497217 495215 492212 491211 488209 484209 484212
      484214 486217 488219 491220 494223 495223 497221

$$





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