Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 221858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 23/0000 UTC THRU SEP 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM POST TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE UPCOMING DAY 1 TIME PERIOD AS THE
NEARLY STATIONARY STORM BEGINS TO DRIFT AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND---INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF
MA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER SATURDAY AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
 ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN .50" LIKELY FOR
SOUTHEAST MA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS.

WESTERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS---EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR THE UPCOMING DAY 1 TIME PERIOD
FOR POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW.  A BROAD
REGION OF ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL STRETCH FROM
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS---EASTERN NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN A REGION OF STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND THE
DOWNSTREAM CLOSED HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  EARLY IN THE DAY 1 FORECAST PERIOD
THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN MN AHEAD OF AN INITIAL SURFACE WAVE MOVING
FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE ND-SD-MN BORDER AREA INTO NORTHWEST MN
AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT
HEAVY RAINS IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THE HI RES RUNS ARE CONCENTRATING PRECIP
FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO THE NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS WERE FAVORED.  WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ATTAINING AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH TIME IN THE 0000
TO 1200 UTC TIME FRAME--THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF TRAINING OR SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CELLS ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND POTENTIAL RUNOFF ISSUES.

LATER SATURDAY THE EMPHASIS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF
THE GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW ACCENTUATES LIFT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
HIGH PW AXIS.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT LONGITUDE
OF THE MAX AXIS WITH RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL VARIABILITY
SEEN.  HOWEVER---ALL AGREE ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY---WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR THE HEAVIEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TO WEST TX
WHERE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY BE
ENTRAINED AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW.  WITH DEEP LAYERED
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THESE REGIONS---THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION POSSIBLE---WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF RUNOFF ISSUES IN
AREAS OF TRAINING.

FLORIDA---WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN GULF COAST

EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH
SETTLING OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION  WILL PERSIST DAY 1 FROM
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN GULF COAST.  THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE MID TO LOWER TX COASTAL REGION.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 552917 546866 545841 544836 541836 539832 538827 536812
      534800 532790 528780 517761 513756 506753 503751 499752
      496753 496759 492762 487763 484765 480766 468794 467809
      466814 466822 464834 464845 463895 462902 461906 458914
      455922 450932 443943 434954 422967 408980 402986 396990
      385999 360014 334024 327027 319030 310033 307035 302035
      284039 266041 263043 260041 252037 246034 241033 237035
      231038 228040 228044 227054 226056 227058 232064 237070
      241075 245077 248077 259077 269077 278075 289073 297072
      304070 312068 322069 329071 336069 348065 351063 355063
      357065 360073 361079 362085 371089 375094 383097 389091
      394088 399088 402086 407081 412076 416075 418079 420082
      421089 417094 413099 415101 418102 421102 426102 428104
      433104 438108 439117 440125 437131 436137 435143 435147
      438153 442159 445162 449164 451164 452161 451157 451146
      452135 454130 456128 458125 462125 465126 468128 476129
      479130 481126 486116 487110 487103 485098 482094 472083
      469079 467073 467067 468063 476048 483030 484025 485021
      483017 483012 477997 476992 477986 479978 480974 482977
      484984 486996 490016 492026 495036 495041 497046 500053
      505058 511051 515046 520041 522038 522033 525026 528012
      529006 532003 534003 540998 544997 545991 546964 549936
      552917
 0.01 506285 507278 506274 503265 499258 495254 494251 490250
      487251 483252 482247 480238 478233 474232 473242 469245
      464244 457244 453250 449259 447268 449272 453273 462276
      478276 481276 485277 492282 499287 502287 505286 506285
 0.01 432701 431687 430679 427674 422665 416657 410650 407647
      402645 393647 385654 377659 373667 370672 370677 367689
      368700 369708 372713 378719 385725 390726 393724 397721
      402719 408717 413717 422719 428713 431708 432702 432701
 0.01 415118 412108 411103 407102 406105 403108 400108 398110
      394110 389113 379116 376118 373123 373129 378131 384124
      394119 397117 399116 401118 405117 411118 415118
 0.01 325797 324792 322791 317791 314790 310790 302791 296789
      293786 281782 275780 268781 257787 252791 248794 243798
      241805 244817 246823 250827 258834 264837 268835 288844
      293848 296853 299858 302859 304857 305850 305844 307837
      307831 309829 314818 320806 323801 325797
 0.01 301998 300989 299983 297980 289966 281952 270943 267941
      263941 259947 255954 249960 244965 244969 246972 251978
      261978 266983 270985 275985 285997 291002 298002 301998
 0.01 288024 289016 287012 282009 276007 271004 266002 262002
      261004 261008 263011 265015 270019 274022 279024 285027
      288024
 0.25 537888 537879 536872 531859 525837 506786 503781 501782
      501792 501798 500805 500814 501823 502829 497829 490830
      486834 481841 475852 472855 471862 471880 470894 468904
      463917 459930 453941 447949 435966 424980 417988 409995
      402001 392008 383012 374015 365018 357021 338028 326032
      316037 301049 298053 300057 304061 307063 313064 318064
      331063 352058 361056 371052 386045 406034 410032 416032
      422033 428036 430040 431046 426056 436071 445075 450073
      452070 455062 456051 455042 453037 449025 453010 461992
      467979 471967 474962 479959 487957 493955 497959 500963
      504967 512971 515970 518966 521960 522953 523943 523937
      525933 527927 528919 528912 533902 536895 537888
 0.25 422682 421676 418669 410659 406658 399658 392660 387664
      383668 380674 385676 392676 395677 398676 403672 407674
      407681 407688 408695 411701 414703 418700 422689 422682
 0.25 381083 382081 382078 382076 381074 380071 378069 376068
      375067 373066 372068 372071 372073 372074 372075 373077
      374079 374080 375082 376082 377084 379084 381083 381083
 0.25 293807 293802 291799 290796 286795 279794 269795 260796
      253799 253802 256804 260803 265804 272806 278808 286809
      290809 293807
 0.25 273065 273061 270059 268057 263056 256054 250050 247048
      243048 237049 235053 235056 238063 244068 251070 260070
      266067 270067 273065 273065
 0.25 278974 278972 277970 276968 275968 274966 272966 270967
      268967 267968 267970 268971 269972 270973 271974 272974
      274975 275976 277975 278974
 0.50 512911 513904 513898 512884 511872 510864 508860 505857
      499851 494845 488847 480860 478868 476875 473888 472897
      469907 467916 462934 459941 456947 447961 438973 428985
      420994 415000 410007 406013 397016 390017 382018 368019
      339030 324035 319037 314041 309047 307051 307055 309058
      313060 319061 328060 336058 348055 364050 370048 377044
      389037 394034 399030 406025 413022 426022 433019 438014
      446004 455989 459983 463974 469957 473953 479951 482949
      486945 490939 498937 504933 512911
 1.00 500896 501890 500885 497878 494871 492869 488871 484875
      481882 476897 472913 470920 469932 468940 469945 471943
      480934 484930 489925 492920 495914 500898 500896
 1.00 379028 375025 371024 366024 354028 341032 330036 318043
      314047 313050 315054 322056 330055 341052 354047 365042
      371039 375035 379028
 1.50 490904 490896 485892 481897 478902 476910 475917 477924
      481927 484923 487917 489912 490904
 1.50 372032 372028 370027 364027 352031 341034 331038 322045
      318048 318050 321052 326053 332052 343048 353044 363038
      367036 372032
 2.00 369032 367030 364030 356031 350033 342036 335038 331042
      328045 331048 335048 340047 345045 352042 358039 364036
      369032

$$





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