Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 241834
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 25/0000 UTC THRU SEP 26/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS---CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY

THERE IS SURPRISINGLY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN MANY OF THE
MODELS TODAY WITH THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
EVENT STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS---INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  MODEL ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN
EASTWARD PUSH OF AN INITIAL AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OUT OF THE MEAN
TROF POSITION STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHWEST---WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING INTO LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE NATION AND FAVORABLE LIFT IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS IN A WELL
DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET---CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
TOTALS.  HOWEVER---WITH THE POOR RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY---CONFIDENCE MUCH LOWER ON DETAILS OF HOW THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.  THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
CONTINUITY---AT LEAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD
WHEN SOME BIG CONTINUITY CHANGES ARE NOTED IN OTHER MODELS--WITH
THIS MODEL FOLLOWED OVERALL MORE FOR THE UPCOMING DAY 1 PERIOD.
THIS RESULTED IN A BROAD .50-1"+ AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP TOTALS
DEPICTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST TX/TX-OK PANHANDLE---THROUGH MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM SOUTHERN
TO NORTHEAST MN AND NW WI.  NO CHANGES MADE TO THE BROAD MARGINAL
TO SLIGHT RISK AREA ON THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK.

CENTRAL GULF COAST

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY DAY 1 ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PUSH
INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN LA---FAR SOUTHERN MS---AND FAR SOUTHERN AL---WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG APPROX 50N OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO COASTAL B.C. WILL STRENGTHEN
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF IT MONDAY FROM WESTERN B.C. INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.   MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS TO
REMAIN ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WESTERN B.C.---WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE TOTALS AFFECTING WASHINGTON STATE FROM THE CASCADES TO
THE COAST RANGE/OLYMPIC RANGE.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML


ORAVEC



24HR QP VT 26/00Z
 0.01 514288 522264 526252 529240 531235 532228 537216 540203
      542194 542192 544179 538172 534173 531173 527177 523178
      509167 505163 500161 496163 495169 500176 503180 504183
      502186 494201 480207 462210 455213 451213 451217 458227
      459231 459234 457234 450237 449241 450244 454248 456252
      455256 457266 464284 466295 470305 473314 475319 478323
      482324 487324 493319 510300
 0.01 553903 553887 553870 552854 551838 550822 549805 548789
      546776 544763 541750 539737 538731 538726 518664 512649
      510644 508640 506639 498628 495625 493622 491622 487627
      488634 494651 495663 498672 501695 497710 495707 490704
      487703 485699 483695 476680 464654 460650 455648 451648
      449651 446653 445658 445661 446667 447670 449674 453686
      459697 464703 467707 475715 484724 491736 498750 499755
      498759 496767 496775 494781 491795 491800 490804 487811
      474834 467846 463853 460856 428892 424897 419904 410912
      394929 378945 374949 370954 362963 358970 353975 344982
      333986 321990 315992 310992 307990 306986 305981 305972
      303967 303958 301955 301950 300943 303937 308922 313892
      313885 311878 310870 307867 302853 298842 293836 286833
      280832 274829 271825 268820 264814 260811 254811 251815
      252822 254828 256835 257844 259846 259850 259857 260866
      262871 269884 272890 274897 276903 277912 278920 279927
      281934 281941 278949 274952 268955 263956 257957 253960
      249964 248968 251969 253970 253974 250978 242988 238993
      236999 230011 226048 229061 229065 231067 234071 248075
      256076 261075 267074 271069 279070 286068 297066 312066
      323063 330060 334056 339054 347055 359052 371050 375050
      377052 383056 393059 396058 400059 405061 414069 415072
      415075 414080 413082 410089 408092 408096 404104 400108
      395111 392114
 0.01 392114 408122 424120 430116 437112 443108 447097 451088
      452081 454077 455073 452068 452056 450045 452040 452033
      451029 448029 445026 437025 434025 432023 431019 435010
      439000 443993 450974 456965 461959 472945 476943 481942
      489947 493954 495966 497975 500982 502980 507975 514970
      525957 535942 544923 549914 553903
 0.01 267724 266730 266737 270752 280778 286788 291793 297792
      302790 306795 310797 315796 317794 325786 332776 339766
      344761 348757 362738 365733 369727 375717 378712 381704
      382699 381690 377687 374683 362677 359677 355676 350677
      345676
 0.25 535204 535198 533193 530191 526191 524195 522200 521205
      522212 525216 530216 532214 534206 535204
 0.25 541788 540765 537747 532728 531718 529710 527699 524692
      517674 515667 513663 511660 509660 508664 507669 508674
      516751 518763 519773 519784 519795 518835 516844 514851
      510864 506877 503886 500893 496899 492901 490901 486896
      484893 479892 475889 471889 468890 458895 448903 440911
      430919 421926 414930 409935 400945 384961 366977 355984
      346989 332995 319999 313001 304002 291003 284004 278006
      274009 270013 266019 261022 250026 244028 240033 236037
      234042 233052 234055 236058 243060 249063 256061 260057
      268051 274050 282049 287049 295047 308044 313041 319039
      326038 334036 340033 346032 355033 362033 374031 387031
      396030 402028 417002 431983 446963 462944 471934 477925
      483919 490915 494916 497918 502921 508923 515923 522921
      525918 529911 531904 535888 540872 541853 543833 543819
      542807 541788
 0.25 517267 518257 515248 511241 505236 504233 503235 502241
      503249 496245 490242 487241 484243 479247 477252 478257
      480275 482283 488290 493295 498296 501296 506292 511285
      514277 517267
 0.25 273720 271727 271735 273743 277751 286761 291765 296769
      302773 308775 315774 322769 326765 331759 334752 336745
      338736 338729 337719 334710 330703 325697 320693
 0.25 307892 307885 305876 303869 300863 296858 292853 288849
      285847 281848 280863 279870 279879 280887 282895 284900
      286904 290906 292911 294914 297915 303912 305905 307892
 0.50 538778 537767 536758 534749 529740 528725 526721 523724
      522732 522737 523742 524751 526772 526795 526806 525815
      522833 521843 520853 520862 518870 514887 513895 511905
      510913 512913 515910 522900 527886 530878 532870 532859
      533848 535840 536830 536808 537794 538778
 0.50 511273 512268 511263 509260 506261 502262 499261 493257
      489256 487259 486265 487269 489278 492284 495288 498290
      503288 508282 511273
 0.50 471925 471919 468918 464920 453918 447921 442925 433933
      426940 416947 411949 406949 402949 399951 395955 378970
      368979 359986 349991 338995 327999 313003 300005 287008
      282009 278013 273019 270025 271034 272040 274042 277044
      282045 289045 296042 302041 306037 314030 321029 326027
      336018 342016 349017 359021 367021 372020 384015 395009
      403002 412994 421987 429977 445959 454948 461940 467932
      471925
 0.50 276718 274723 273731 275740 277747 281752 285757 295763
      301766 307767 315766 320763 325759 328753 333741 333734
      332724 330715 327707 324703 319698 314696
 0.50 304897 305892 305886 303878 300870 295865 288863 284869
      283879 285888 289895 293901 295904 299904 303899 304897
 1.00 444949 443945 442944 435944 430947 426949 416956 407962
      402964 397963 387968 379974 369982 361988 353998 352004
      354010 359012 365010 374005 383998 403988 413982 423975
      429968 437959 444949
 1.00 348000 349997 347997 343998 335000 320005 313009 304011
      291016 284021 280023 279026 286036 294034 300029 307026
      314024 321020 327016 340007 348000
 1.00 282714 280719 277724 277732 277736 280744 282748 287753
      291756 301761 308760 315758 320755 323751 327747 329740
      330729 329720 327714 324708 320703 316701 310699 309699
 1.00 301888 301886 301884 300882 300881 299880 298878 297878
      296877 294877 292878 292879 292881 292883 292885 292887
      292889 293889 294891 295892 296893 297893 298892 300891
      300890 301888
 1.50 430959 429956 425957 418961 405969 399973 391976 377983
      364990 361993 360997 360002 364003 376997 384994 391990
      405982 417974 423969 428964 430959
 1.50 286712 281722 279727 280736 282742 285747 288751 294754
      298756 306757 312755 318752 323748 326743 328733 328725
      326716 321706 317703 311701 305702
 1.50 331008 331007 329007 328008 329009 331008 331008
 1.50 329010 327009 325009 324010 325011 327010 329010
 1.50 325012 324011 322011 321012 322012 324012 325012
 2.00 292709 287713 284718 282723 281729 282737 285743 288747
      292751 298754 303754 310753 316751 321748 324743 327736
      328729 326718 323713 320707 315704 309703 304704 298705
      297706
 3.00 326727 325721 322715 319709 314706 308706 301707 295710
      290713 286718 283723 283729 285737 287742 291746 295749
      301751 306750 312749 317746 322741 324736 326729 326727
 4.00 324730 324722 322717 319712 315708 311707 304708 298710
      294712 286720 285724 285731 286736 289741 292745 297748
      302748 308747 313745 318742 323734 324730
 5.00 323730 323724 321717 316710 312709 308709 299711 294713
      291716 288719 287724 286728 288734 292742 299746 304746
      310744 316740 320737 322732 323730
 6.00 322726 321721 319716 313710 309710 303711 294714 289722
      288726 289732 293740 296743 300744 306743 311741 318737
      321733 322728 322726
 7.00 321728 320723 319718 314712 312711 307712 301713 294716
      290722 289727 290732 294739 300742 306741 312738 319733
      321728
 8.00 319731 319725 318720 314713 307713 298715 293719 290726
      292734 297739 304741 311738 316733 319731
 9.00 318726 317720 314714 308713 302714 297717 293721 291727
      294733 298738 303739 310737 314733 318729 318726
10.00 317727 315721 313717 311715 305714 298717 294720 293727
      295733 299737 305738 310735 313731 317727

$$





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