Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 221808
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
208 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front
approaches middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM Friday...

Surface and upper level ridging to the north continues the
quite, but unseasonably warm weather, with dense valley fog once
again forming overnight, and then burning off around mid
morning.

Opened up diurnal spread with guidance suggesting slightly
lower lows tonight, and the MET higher for highs Saturday. Those
MET values seemed high, but opted to go just below 90 across
the lowlands. There should be less cumulus and cirrus around,
and the morning inversion is progged to be more shallow,
compared with this morning. This, with light downslope flow,
should favor strong heating for late September,

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Significant wx nil through the short term with deep upper trough
anchored over the Great Basin and downstream elongated ridge
oriented northeast to southwest. 850mb temps in the 18C vicinity
keep well above normal temperatures going through the weekend
and into early next week before heights start to gradually
lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Upper ridge begins to break down and we will lose the barotropic
atmosphere that has dominated for the better part of a week.
Expecting a cold front to work its way through the Mississippi
Valley into the Ohio Valley, driven by the digging upper trough
over the Great Lakes for the day 7 time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Friday...

High pressure spells VFR conditions outside of VLIFR river and
valley fog 08Z to 14Z tonight, starting an hour or two earlier
in the deeper valleys in and near the mountains. The fog
forecast is less certain at BKW, but fog there should be no
worse than this morning.

Surface flow will be light northeast by day and calm at night,
while northeast flow aloft this afternoon becomes light east
tonight, and remains light east on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary early
Saturday. Brief IFR forecast at BKW may not occur.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM



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