Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 200557
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1257 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will pass later today, with some sprinkles or light
rain possible. This will also usher in milder temperatures for
the weekend. A strong cold front crosses late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1250 AM Saturday...

Tricky temperatures again early this morning, as some areas have
decoupled and cooled quickly, while others remain mixed. In
general, have temperatures bottoming out in next couple hours
before starting to warm with incoming clouds and continued SW
flow. In a somewhat odd synoptic setup, our SW flow is actually
producing some mid level cold advection with closed upper low
near the Gulf Coast. So did not start warming higher elevations
until after sunrise.

Clouds should be on the increase today. Initially, expecting a
layer of cirrus which is already spreading in from the west. But
with the SW flow, the low to mid levels begin to saturate, with
a stratus deck forming/moving in from the SW. As moisture
continues to pump in, eventually we will see some
drizzle/sprinkles/light rain as a warm front lifts through.
Blended in ECMWF MOS for highs, which bumped up highs a degree
or two across the south.

The warm front departs to the north overnight, so cut back on
POPs. However still lingered slight chance to chance across the
north with GFS/ECMWF a bit slower than the NAM lifting the front
through. Went with a non-diurnal temperature trend tonight,
especially across the south after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

A warm front moves towards the area late Saturday night with
overrunning. Forecast soundings are indicating a period of
possible drizzle and fog as the warm moist air starts to push
in. In the Northeast mountain valleys, some areas could be
below freezing and may have a period of freezing drizzle or fog
before we eventually warm early Sunday morning. Warm frontal
light rain will continue on Sunday, with very light amounts
expected. Temperatures Sunday will just up into the mid to
possibly upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

Strong cold front will push into the Ohio Valley Monday
afternoon. POPs increase quickly after 18Z Monday and widespread
rain will overspreads the region Monday night. Thinking amounts
should only be a half in or less in most places, but on the high
end, maybe three quarters of an inch could fall in some spots.
Cold air will push in behind the front on Tuesday and could see
a changeover to snow, especially in the mountains, but moisture
will be limited.  Flow aloft settles back into a zonal pattern
for the back end of the extended forecast. High pressure and
warmer air should work back in by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Saturday...

Some cirrus starting to move in from the west. But expect the
low levels to gradually saturate through today with MVFR stratus
developing across much of the forecast area. Could also see
some light drizzle or sprinkles late today into tonight as a
warm front lifts through. May get some IFR in this
stratus/drizzle tonight across the northern part of the forecast
area. Flow will continue out of the S to SW through the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing onset of MVFR cigs may vary. May
need to add IFR in stratus/drizzle tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 01/20/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible Monday/Monday night with rain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...MZ



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