Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 161158
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
655 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering clouds today, with some drizzle possible in the northern
WV mountains. High pressure builds in tonight. Strong cold front for
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...

Removed pops for this morning and early this afternoon due to
shallow moisture and lack of cold enough air for overturning. Did
leave some drizzle in northeastern WV with the cold air advection.

As of 600 AM Thursday...

No changes needed.

As of 320 AM Thursday...

A cold front exit the eastern mountains producing light rain or
drizzle. However, plenty of low level moisture will keep clouds
and drizzle across the western slopes and eastern mountains
through this afternoon.

Northwest flow will shift from the north this evening as a sfc
high pressure builds from the north and west.

Went with the blend of models for highs this afternoon, and the
SREF temperatures for lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Although we start with high pressure overhead the dominant
feature this period is a strong cold front that will rip through
the region on Saturday.

Warm air advection kicks in on Friday night out ahead of the
front with deep southwesterly return flow. Warm front generally
passes to our north and the region will be well entrenched in
the warm sector by noon Saturday. This will send temperatures
soaring into the 60s before showers break out with the front in
the Ohio Valley by late Saturday afternoon. Yes it is November,
but there may be enough forcing and instability with the front
for some embedded thunder, but not enough confidence to put in
the forecast at this time. Will have to watch for any convective
line that develops, with forecast soundings showing 55 to 60
knots at only 2K feet the heavier showers could bring some
strong wind gusts down to the surface.

The front clears the mountains late Saturday night and strong
CAA expected behind it. With the colder air and strong NW flow,
upslope snow appears likely across western facing slopes.
Depending when the changeover occurs, we may not see much in
the way of accumulation until during the day on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

Depending how much Great Lake moisture comes down behind the
front, snowfall amounts will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch
range in the favorable upslope areas. By early Monday morning,
weak ridging and WAA will cut off the snow. Models really
diverge as we head into Thanksgiving week, so overall details
are fuzzy at this time. At this time, no significant systems
are expected, but a blend of ensemble and operational guidance
does bring cool temperatures back in by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...

Abundant low level moisture will keep low to mid level clouds
over the area for most part of the day. Satellite images show
widespread low level stratus this morning. MVFR ceilings will be
possible at EKN at the beginning of the period. MVFR ceilings
could spread to affect other sites this morning.

Brief periods of drizzle possible in low clouds. A gradual
improvements can be expected this afternoon as clouds break up
and lift.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of and height of LIFR ceilings could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible Saturday and Saturday night in precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ



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