Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 210730
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
230 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late
Monday with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the
front, but turning warmer again late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Sunday...

Weak lift and overrunning moisture leading to widespread stratus
clouds early this morning. Radar showing echos developing -- but
no observations showing any precipitation reaching the ground
yet. Eventually we will see some areas of drizzle or light rain
making it to the ground, mainly across the northern half of the
forecast area as a warm front lifts through. The precipitation
and lower clouds should gradually drift north of the forecast
area late today into tonight.

Temperatures will hold fairly steady through the pre-dawn,
before another mild day today. Bumped up highs across the coal
fields, where we should get some breaks in the clouds this
afternoon, otherwise no major changes made. Southerly flow will
provide another mild night tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

Main change to the overall forecast for the short term is the
increase in the sustained winds and gusts, mainly in the post
frontal environment. May end up in advisory criteria for wind in
the highest elevations Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, no
major changes to the forecast timing and QPF amounts. Still not
getting any thunder to come out of the weather grids as
instability is low, but wind profile certainly details a strong
speed and directional shear environment. Will not discount the
possibility of thunder completely, however, given the SPC
general thunder risk over our area in the Day 2 Convective
Outlook.

Still very warm Monday ahead of the cold front with guidance in
the mid to upper 60s for the lowlands. Drop off in temperature
will be sharp behind the front, but the Pacific nature of the
system keeps temperatures near normal mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

Have already the lingering wind, especially in the mountains,
carrying over from the short term period. Have some post frontal
low level moisture to deal with Tuesday night, a brief lull, and
then again late Wednesday and Wednesday night with a quick
moving open wave in the flow aloft. There is snow potential, but
really playing down any accumulations in the mountains at this
point for Tuesday night.

Another warm up is expected as high pressure passes to the east
of the mountains and puts the region in warm advection/return
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Sunday...

MVFR stratus in place across much of the forecast area as an
area of weak lift and overrunning moisture lingers. Expect this
to gradually drift northward out of the forecast area today into
tonight. Radar showing some echos developing, not hitting the
ground yet but do expect areas of drizzle or light rain across
the northern half of the forecast area. Winds will remain out of
the south through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add IFR visibilities across the
north if drizzle or rain materialize late tonight. Timing of
category changes may vary today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 01/21/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    L    M    M    H    M    L    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible Monday/Monday night under rain showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.