433
FXUS61 KRLX 031732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this
afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next
week with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 129 PM Friday...

As a cold front approaches from the west, several H700 shortwaves
will cross the area providing forcing to sustain showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into Saturday. There could be a
reduction in coverage and intensity of precipitation at night, but
thunderstorms should fire up once again Saturday afternoon with
better instability present.

Convection is anticipated to be rather disorganized and non-severe.
However, PWATs values around 1.5 inches under weak deep layered
shear may produce localized heavy downpours conducive to minor
water issues on Saturday. However, widespread flooding is not
anticipated given the fairly dry soil conditions.

Warm and humid air in place will keep lows tonight generally in the
mid to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s
higher elevations. For Saturday, abundant clouds and cooling showers
will keep highs in the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into
the mid 50s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1128 AM Friday...

More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled
front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow
aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of
severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in
areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few
days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands
and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid
across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1129 AM Friday...

The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with
chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and
Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather
Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of
MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be
something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be
positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and
PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a
concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for
the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure
strengthening over the Great Lakes.

Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still
looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a
warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler
weather returning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions, ahead of an approaching cold front, will
continue across all sites through at least 00Z. Meanwhile, showers
and storms will develop and produce MVFR conditions along their
path, starting across the Middle Ohio valley, and spreading east
into WV through tonight.

Unlimited ceilings will gradually descend to 5,000 feet by late
afternoon or evening across PKB, HTS ans CRW, and then spread east
across the rest of sites through tonight. Increasing moisture
will saturate the column allowing for MVFR/IFR ceilings mainly
across the higher elevations of our eastern mountains overnight
into early Saturday morning.

Light winds 5 to 10 knots will prevail through this evening,
becoming light and variable, or even calm over protected river
valleys overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation may vary from the
forecast. Periods of IFR visibility may be possible with the heavier
shower or storm.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times Saturday into
Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB