Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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535
FXUS61 KRLX 221351
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
951 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure to end the work week but
more unsettled weather arrives in time for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Tuesday...

Updated POPs to better reflect current radar depiction and then
leaned heavily on the HRRR for the remainder of the day. It has
the current area gradually decreasing as it shifts east, with
additional showers and storms forming in the area getting
sunshine this morning across southern WV and VA. A bit more
uncertain on evolution of the storms that will pick up along and
ahead of the cold front as it moves into western Ohio. Have some
sunshine in this area, but uncertainty remains in if clouds will
be able to clear out across southeast Ohio in time to re build
much instability after this mornings showers. With sufficient
shear in place, any insolation will aid in keeping strong to
severe storms going as they cross into CWA this
afternoon/evening.

As of 315 AM Tuesday...

Most models showing a band of showers and thunderstorms working its
way across the forecast area today, although the HRRR goes for more
of a diurnal trend. Will generally go with the concept of the band
marching across the area but drop pops to chance during the late
morning since this is the normal climatological minimum for
convection.

A cold front this pushes through the area tonight. Deeper moisture
moves off to the east before the cold front pushes through, so will
keep only chance pops with the frontal boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...

Dry air advects in behind the front for Wednesday with dewpoints
dropping in the afternoon. High pressure noses in from the north
before sliding off to the east on Friday. This will keep a
comfortable airmass in place, relatively speaking, though remaining
warm. Expect dense river valley fog each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 329 AM Tuesday...

A tropical system meandering along the northern Gulf coast will
combine with return from from the upper ridge off the southeast
coast and an approaching upper level trof...for rounds of
showers/storms over the weekend. PWATS surge to near 2 inches on
Sunday with downpours potentially adding to a flooding concern. Kept
thunder on a diurnal trace in this pattern..

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, causing some
restrictions. Outside of the showers and thunderstorms, the only
restrictions expected are for some patchy fog early this
morning.

A cold front will move through Tuesday night, with additional
showers and thunderstorms possible. Some MVFR clouds are
possible along and behind the front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions in showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY



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