Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
976
FXUS61 KRLX 162330
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
630 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will build in tonight providing gradual
clearing. The high remains on Friday. Strong cold front for
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 PM Thursday...

A bit of a tough call on the clouds tonight, they have been
rooted in place all afternoon/evening. Went a bit more
pessimistic on them breaking up overnight, lingering cloud cover
longer than previous forecast... especially across the north.
Generally used a blend toward the NAMNest to achieve this. With
this in mind, also adjusted low temperatures a few degrees
warmer under the clouds, and a touch colder across the south
were skies are already mostly clear.

As of 1230 PM Thursday...

Some cold air advection will continue this evening, allowing for a
stratus deck in some locations. Moisture depth is limited, so any
upslope precipitation should be very light and limited to
northeastern WV. Therefore will only mention sprinkles or flurries.
As warm air advection sets in later tonight, expect clearing skies.

A high pressure system will provide dry weather and plenty of
sunshine for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

The area of high pressure pushes quickly east allowing a strong
system to approach from the west by late Friday night. Models
suggest a warm front will push northeast across the area on
Saturday with a strong cold front pushing east Saturday night.

As a result, expect a decent chance of showers across our
southeast Ohio counties as well as the northern counties of West
Virginia by Friday night and across much of the region Saturday
into Saturday night. Ahead of the front, there could even be a
few rumbles of thunder. Some of these storms could produce
strong wind gusts as southwest winds in excess of 50 kts are
anticipated just above the surface.

The rainshowers should begin to mix with snow around midnight
with snow or a rain/snow mixture across our northern counties
and much of the West Virginia mountains by morning. Air aloft
will be quite cold and this should allow the precipitation to
be in the form of snow even with surface temperatures several
degrees above freezing across the lowland counties.

By Sunday, precipitation chances should end from the west as
high pressure tries to build in. Much of the area should be dry
with precipitation chances in the form of snow continuing in
the mountains late Sunday afternoon and evening. Snow chances
should even end in the mountains Sunday night as drier high
pressure builds in.

Current thinking is that portions of the higher elevations of
the northern mountain counties could see snowfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches.

Southerly winds will develop Friday night which should act to
keep temperatures up across the west where overnight lows should
be in the 40s. However, lighter winds across the northeast as
well as the mountain counties should allow the temperatures to
fall into the 30s with temperatures rising before daybreak.

Gusty southwest winds Saturday will result in above normal daytime
temperatures. However, much colder air will filter in Saturday
night with daytime readings Sunday and lows Sunday night well
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

High pressure should be in charge on Monday. Models suggest a
cold front will approach from the northwest by mid-week. However,
models really diverge on the timing of the front.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 PM Thursday...

Main change was to linger MVFR stratus through most of the night
at TAF sites. BKW currently has clear skies, but satellite shows
clouds encroaching on the area, so bring them back down to MVFR
late this evening. Some possibility of a period of IFR at BKW
as well, but did not include that at this time.

Clouds will gradually break up from south to north late tonight
and Friday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR restrictions could vary,
especially the erosion of clouds overnight/Friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible Saturday and Saturday night in precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/AB
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH/AB
LONG TERM...JSH/AB
AVIATION...MZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.