Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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850
FXUS61 KRLX 210542
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1242 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late
Monday with widespread rainfall. Cooler behind the front, but
becoming turning warmer again mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Sunday...

Weak lift and overrunning moisture leading to widespread stratus
clouds early this morning. Radar showing echos developing -- but
no observations showing any precipitation reaching the ground
yet. Eventually we will see some areas of drizzle or light rain
making it to the ground, mainly across the northern half of the
forecast area as a warm front lifts through. The precipitation
and lower clouds should gradually drift north of the forecast
area late today into tonight.

Temperatures will hold fairly steady through the pre-dawn,
before another mild day today. Bumped up highs across the coal
fields, where we should get some breaks in the clouds this
afternoon, otherwise no major changes made. Southerly flow will
provide another mild night tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

Looking at well above average temperatures to start the period
as we sit well within the warm sector or low pressure tracking
northeast into the Great Lakes. This system will drag a cold
front through the region on Monday. Strong SW return flow will
send temperatures soaring and carry some decent moisture into
the area. Models agree that front moves through fairly quickly
late Monday night, and not expecting a ton of QPF out of it,
even with slightly anomalous PWATs for the area. Still looking
at a widespread half inch rainfall, with possibly some higher
amounts nearing an inch in the the mountains. Colder air rushes
in behind the front, but with only some lingering low level
moisture, not expecting much in the way of snow. Even in the
mountains, only about a half inch of snow accumulation is
expected. Orographic accent will be limited with flow generally
staying WSW to straight westerly behind the front, so this will
help keep accumulations light.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Saturday...

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement as we head later in
the week. May see a few snow showers in the mountains Wednesday
into Thursday in NW flow and upper trough swinging through.
However, after that, the trend has been for another warm up as
we close out the period. Large high pressure and upper ridge
build over the area at the end of the period and beyond with
return flow over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Sunday...

MVFR stratus in place across much of the forecast area as an
area of weak lift and overrunning moisture lingers. Expect this
to gradually drift northward out of the forecast area today into
tonight. Radar showing some echos developing, not hitting the
ground yet but do expect areas of drizzle or light rain across
the northern half of the forecast area. Winds will remain out of
the south through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add IFR visibilities across the
north if drizzle or rain materialize late tonight. Timing of
category changes may vary today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SUN 01/21/18
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    L    M    L    M    L    L    L    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible Monday/Monday night under rain showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...MZ



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