Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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463
FXUS61 KRLX 222317
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
717 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front
approaches middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 715 PM Friday...

Freshened up the grids, though no major changes resulted. Pretty
much a persistence forecast tonight with the fog...though it
may be delayed an hour or two, depending on how much cirrus
lingers this evening.

As of 205 PM Friday...

Surface and upper level ridging to the north continues the
quite, but unseasonably warm weather, with dense valley fog once
again forming overnight, and then burning off around mid
morning.

Opened up diurnal spread with guidance suggesting slightly
lower lows tonight, and the MET higher for highs Saturday. Those
MET values seemed high, but opted to go just below 90 across
the lowlands. There should be less cumulus and cirrus around,
and the morning inversion is progged to be more shallow,
compared with this morning. This, with light downslope flow,
should favor strong heating for late September,

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

High pressure surface and aloft will remain in control during
the short term period, with warm sunny days, above normal
temperatures, dry conditions, and foggy mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

High pressure will remain in control until Thursday, with an
upper shortwave trough and surface cold front move through the
area. At this time, precipitation coverage still looks to be
minimal, along with QPF. Cooler/more fall like weather to round
out the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 715 PM Friday...

High pressure spells VFR conditions outside of VLIFR river and
valley fog 07Z to 13Z tonight. Onset may be delayed an hour or
so, depending on how much cirrus lingers this evening. The fog
forecast is less certain at BKW, but fog there should be no
worse than this morning.

Surface flow will be light northeast by day and calm at night,
while northeast flow aloft this afternoon becomes light east
tonight, and remains light east on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cirrus may delay onset of dense fog longer
than currently forecast. Brief IFR forecast at BKW may not
occur.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM/30



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