Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 190707
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
307 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will drift south into the region today, providing
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Cold front will sag into the central parts of the CWA today,
before retreating off to north later this evening and becoming
diffuse. I have pops ramping up into likely across the central
and northern parts of the CWA by early afternoon, with the best
chances looking to be along and just north of the I64
corridor...to around the route 33 corridor.

While the potential certainly exists for some localized
downbursts given the decent sfc-h7 theta spread and DCAPE
values, torrential downpours with the potential for training
cells may be the bigger hazard. PWATs around 2 inches further
exacerbates this threat. 1 and 3 hour FFG in the corridor where
the highest confidence of storms hovers around 2 inches. I
contemplated a somewhat narrow flash flood watch, but given the
lack of shear for organized storm development, I think the
threat will localized as it stands now. It should be worth
mentioning that FFG is much lower across the northern WV
lowlands, and if the axis of greatest storm coverage ends up
being north than currently thinking, then the flash flood threat
would be greater. I will probably revisit this decision with the
early morning update.

Highs today will be around 5 degrees lower than yesterday and
despited the uptick in dewpoints, I think a heat advisory is not
warranted. This is especially true given timing of convection
onset.

Activity will gradually diminish late this evening as the front
retreats off to the north. If cloud cover is less than
expected, then dense fog will likely be prevalent across much of
the river valleys tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

A frontal boundary will slowly sag southward across the area Wednesday
and Wednesday night, providing showers and thunderstorms. Concerned
with a flood threat since the front will provide a focusing mechanism
and models showing 1.9 inches of precipitable water. Meso Nam is
showing some locations receiving over 4 inches of rain between
now and Wednesday evening. Will need to monitor this situation
closely. The front is expected to stall near or just south of the area
for Wednesday night or Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

The front will push back northward on Friday as a warm front.
This will put the area back into warm sector for the weekend,
with chances of showers and thunderstorms, more numerous in the
afternoon and evening hours.

Another weak cold front is expected to push through the region
late Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...

Dense river valley fog should be mitigated given the muggy
atmosphere and increase in low level flow. The exception being
EKN, where a period of IFR vsby was coded up during the predawn
hours. A period of MVFR stratus is possible at CKB/EKN 12-15Z
ahead of an approaching cold front. Thereafter VFR conditions
take hold amid a healthy cu field. This will lead to convection
as the front sags into the area, with chances ramping up quite a
bit by 18Z. Brief IFR conditions can be expected in convection,
which will carry though early evening. This was handled with
predominate thunder in some of the TAFs centered on most
probable time of occurrence.

The front should retreat to the north later this evening, with
convection diminishing. Depending on extent of cloud cover,
dense river valley fog is possible at any terminal that receives
rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of convection today may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/19/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions expected in thunderstorms throughout the
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



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