472
FXUS61 KRLX 060741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather prevails through the work week, with daily
chances for showers and storms. The frequency of storms will
pose concern for localized flooding each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Monday...

A disturbance encroaches the area starting this morning,
kicking off what looks to be an active weather week. A frontal
boundary will be draped along the northern extent of the
forecast area today amid shortwave energy gliding up from the
south. The stalled front, coupled with the approaching
shortwave trough, will help give rise to showers and isolated
thunderstorm development for the second half of the period.

Radar trends at the time of writing depicted storms pressing
into Kentucky, which will then be progged to lift north into
the forecast area through the day. Early morning CAM guidance
suggests precipitation moving into our southwestern zones some
time between 9-11 AM, then engulfing the forecast area under
POPs on the order of 50-80% for the afternoon and evening
timeframe.

PWATs will be on the rise amid the strong southerly pull of
moisture, leaping back up to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches by this
afternoon. Localized flooding concerns grow by the day as flash
flood guidance is chipped away by daily showers and storms. This
will especially be the case in the event of heavy downpours
and/or repetitive showers/storms not only today, but stretching
into the extended forecast period as well.

With excess cloud cover expected over the area today, afternoon
highs will fall a few degrees shy of readings that were
observed over the weekend. Instability will also be kept at bay
as a result, with severe weather being limited for today.
Precipitation diminishes to slight chances (20-30%) late tonight
as the shortwave trough departs off the Delmarva coast, but
looks to return in earnest heading into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Isolated to scattered severe storms and localized flash flooding
  possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and
  hail are the main concerns, though a tornado can`t be ruled out.
* Wednesday brings potential for another round of severe storms and
  localized flooding.

Tuesday begins with a warm front draped across northern WV and OH
and a shortwave tracking towards the Great Lakes region. This wave
and surface low are eventually expected to push a cold front into
the Ohio Valley. Warm, moist air flows into the area well in advance
of the front and helps to facilitate the development of showers and
thunderstorms during the day. Forecast soundings continue to show
potential for moderate to strong instability in concert with DCAPE
approaching 1000 J/kg and 30-40kts of effective shear Tuesday
afternoon and evening. During this time, isolated to scattered
storms could become severe with damaging winds and large hail as the
main concerns, though a tornado isn`t out of the question either.
PWATs hovering in the 1-2 inch range also indicate storms may be
accompanied by heavy downpours which could lead to localized flash
flooding.

The aforementioned cold front progresses across the CWA Tuesday
night, then is expected to be lifted back to the north as a warm
front Wednesday into Wednesday night as yet another low tracks out
of the Central Plains and towards the Great Lakes. Severe weather
will again be possible, with potential for damaging winds,
hail, and tornadoes on Wednesday. The new day 3 outlook from SPC
has highlighted the majority of the area in a slight risk of
severe weather, but clips part of northeast Kentucky with an
enhanced risk. Flooding concerns also persist on Wednesday as
storms bring more locally heavy rain to areas that are gradually
becoming saturated.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled pattern persists through the end of the work week.
* Low confidence on the timing and track of a potential system
  this weekend or early next week.

Unsettled weather continues as a low moves by to the north and
ushers a cold front into and then across the area Thursday into
Thursday night. Strong storms may once again develop ahead of and
along the front, while additional rounds of rain sustain flooding
concerns. Coverage of showers and storms should diminish once the
front exits to the east, though some activity could persist while a
shortwave trough passes overhead on Friday.

Models suggest at least a brief period of quieter weather late
Friday into Saturday before the next system arrives; however, models
do not agree on the timing or track of this next system. For the
time being, have elected to maintain a blended model solution
that maintains chances of precipitation and storms into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM Monday...

An assortment of patchy fog, low stratus, and a passing mid-
level cloud deck will impose a challenging aviation forecast
this morning. Some clearing is taking shape down in the southern
coalfields, where vsbys have tumbled down to IFR thresholds,
while northern half of the territory still resides under anvil
blow off from convection upstream that has prevented
development of fog. However, further clearing is in the realm of
possibility over the next few hours, that could give way to fog
before sunrise. Tempo groups were included to attempt bouncing
flight rules during the overnight period.

After daybreak, a warm front lifts up into the Tennessee
Valley, with showers attached to the boundary. This will drape
itself through our forecast area for the majority of the day,
allowing for showers and afternoon thunderstorms to sprout. The
front may also promote MVFR ceilings during its northern
progression through the Central Appalachians. Activity gradually
wanes this evening, however low ceilings will prevail overnight
tonight as the front remains parked nearby.

Light and variable winds overnight will aid in fog production
amid peaks of clear skies. Low level flow will shift out of the
southwest through the day as the warm front migrates over the
area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low for fog tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog tonight will
likely vary from the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/06/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms
into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Monday
night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...MEK