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000
FXUS61 KRLX 151031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
631 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Ohio River remains in flood today. A cool front slowly works
south through this evening, before returning northward as a
warm front Tuesday. A cold front crosses Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

Adjusted temperatures up across northeastern portions of the area
where cloud cover is largely holding temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s.

As of 330 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* Conditional risk of severe storms late this afternoon into
  this evening - large hail and damaging winds the primary
  threats

A steep mid-level lapse rate plume or elevated mixed layer sourced
from the Desert Southwest and Inter Mountainous West will linger
over the region today. Beneath this feature, a convectively
reinforced cool front currently just south of I-70 will continue to
slowly drift south through this evening. Capping at the base of the
EML will likely suppress surface based convection through at least
early afternoon, but surface heating and moisture pooling along this
boundary should eventually support at least a broken line of
convection popping later into the afternoon or evening. Given the
aforementioned steep mid-level lapse rates, deep layer shear around
40KTs, pronounced mid-level drying, and decent surface dew point
depressions large, perhaps isolated damaging hail and locally
damaging winds will be the primary threats. With west to east storm
motions across the west to east oriented boundary, could also see
some training of storms which could yield some isolated water
issues. Overall confidence on convective coverage is rather low
given generally poor handling of the boundary, but if storms do
materialize confidence in at least some strong to severe storms is
high. This is reflected by the current marginal risk outlook from
SPC - if confidence in convective coverage increases, a category
upgrade would certainly be possible.

As the surface front progresses south this evening and with loss of
heating, any convective coverage will wane.

With the cool front making slowly southward progress than previously
depicted, will see another very warm day today for most of the
forecast area with highs in the 80s south, and mid to upper 70
across the north. Will not see nearly the level of dry air to mix
into aloft as was seen yesterday with surface dew point remaining
largely in the mid 50s, except perhaps for some locally drier air
immediately in the wake of the cool front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

A front stalled over the area will push northward as a warm
front on Tuesday, providing a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. This will also push afternoon temperatures well
above normal for this time of year, with readings in some
locations of the central and southern lowlands reaching into the
lower 80s. Some models are showing fairly decent surface based
CAPE (over 1600 at CRW on the meso NAM) with a freezing level in
the 10000 to 11000 range. Can`t rule out some afternoon hail
south of the front. The front will push north of the region
Tuesday evening, leaving the entire area in the warm sector.
This will create a very mild night, with most of the lowlands
remaining in the 60s.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase even more Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with a weak cold front pushing through
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Slightly cooler air can be expected on Thursday behind a weak
cold front. A reinforcing cold front will then push through
Friday or Friday night, depending on the model of choice. Either
way, even cooler temperatures can be expected for the weekend.
What remains uncertain is how quickly the cold air moves in,
whether frontal moisture remains over the area as an upper level
short wave moves through, and the timing of that short wave.
This leaves a low confidence in the weekend forecast, especially
in the precipitation department.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

A convectively reinforced cool front sinks slowly southward through
the day today and will be the primary focus for firing of additional
storms this afternoon and evening. Predominately VFR conditions are
expected with localized reductions possible in any heavier showers
and thunderstorms through late this afternoon. Confidence is rather
low in placement and coverage of storms this afternoon into this
evening with capping potentially holding a lot of activity at bay.
For now will largely address with VCTS. In the wake of the cold
front, more widespread MVFR ceilings are possible overnight tonight
into Tuesday morning with patchy fog possible in areas that receive
measurable rain.

Winds generally westerly around 10KTs shifting west-northwesterly
after frontal passage.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and placement of convection will
need fine tuning based on position of the effective boundary
this afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 250 AM Monday...

**Flooding Continues Along the Ohio River today Monday**

Water from the Thursday`s heavy rain event continues to work
into the mainstem rivers. While flood waters have receded from
much of the area, flooding continues along portions of the Ohio
River. Flooding is currently occurring from Marietta down to
near Point Pleasant. Additionally, backwater flooding from the
Ohio River on the connecting tributaries will continue to
produce water over some roadways, even miles away from the Ohio
River.

Please visit water.noaa.gov for specific river observations and
forecasts.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JP
HYDROLOGY...RPY