Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 202345
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
645 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late
Monday. This will bring widespread rainfall to the region. Cooler
behind the front, becoming warm again next week under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...

Forecast largely on track. Clouds will lower tonight as weak
isentropic lift develops across the region in broad WAA. It`s
tough to decipher whether drizzle or light rain will dominate
overnight and Sunday morning. Given the lack of a well defined
warm frontal boundary...this may just take the form of light
rain or showers. Pops were kept in the chance range with this
update. It will be much warmer tonight, more reminiscent of our
typical daytime highs for late January.

As of 145 PM Saturday...

High pressure continues to provide mostly clear skies mainly
across the northern half of our cwa tonight. However, clouds
will be in the increase from south to north as a warm front
pushes north this evening.

Southwest flow will continue well ahead of an approaching cold
front. This southwest flow will bring moisture and warm
temperatures to the region.

A warm front is expected to lift north this afternoon and
evening to bring low chance for drizzle, sprinkles, or light
rain. This pcpn activity will move north overnight as well as
the warm up. Therefore, kept a non-diurnal temperature trend
tonight into Sunday morning.

Used the blend of all models for temperatures through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

Looking at well above average temperatures to start the period
as we sit well within the warm sector or low pressure tracking
northeast into the Great Lakes. This system will drag a cold
front through the region on Monday. Strong SW return flow will
send temperatures soaring and carry some decent moisture into
the area. Models agree that front moves through fairly quickly
late Monday night, and not expecting a ton of QPF out of it,
even with slightly anomalous PWATs for the area. Still looking
at a widespread half inch rainfall, with possibly some higher
amounts nearing an inch in the the mountains. Colder air rushes
in behind the front, but with only some lingering low level
moisture, not expecting much in the way of snow. Even in the
mountains, only about a half inch of snow accumulation is
expected. Orographic accent will be limited with flow generally
staying WSW to straight westerly behind the front, so this will
help keep accumulations light.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Saturday...

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement as we head later in
the week. May see a few snow showers in the mountains Wednesday
into Thursday in NW flow and upper trough swinging through.
However, after that, the trend has been for another warm up as
we close out the period. Large high pressure and upper ridge
build over the area at the end of the period and beyond with
return flow over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...

Isentropic lift in low level WAA will allow areas of light
rain...drizzle...and showers to develop overnight into Sunday
morning. MVFR stratus will develop this evening...lowering into
IFR across northern terminals and KBKW overnight. It appears
the best chance for vsby reducing light rain would be in the 12
to 15Z time frame. Conditions improve Sunday afternoon, with
low stratus lifting from south to north.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add IFR visibilities if
drizzle or rain materialize late tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible Monday/Monday night under rain showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...30


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