Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 201854
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
154 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late
Monday. This will bring widespread rainfall to the region. Cooler
behind the front, becoming warm again next week under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

High pressure continues to provide mostly clear skies mainly
across the northern half of our cwa tonight. However, clouds
will be in the increase from south to north as a warm front
pushes north this evening.

Southwest flow will continue well ahead of an approaching cold
front. This southwest flow will bring moisture and warm
temperatures to the region.

A warm front is expected to lift north this afternoon and
evening to bring low chance for drizzle, sprinkles, or light
rain. This pcpn activity will move north overnight as well as
the warm up. Therefore, kept a non-diurnal temperature trend
tonight into Sunday morning.

Used the blend of all models for temperatures through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

Looking at well above average temperatures to start the period
as we sit well within the warm sector or low pressure tracking
northeast into the Great Lakes. This system will drag a cold
front through the region on Monday. Strong SW return flow will
send temperatures soaring and carry some decent moisture into
the area. Models agree that front moves through fairly quickly
late Monday night, and not expecting a ton of QPF out of it,
even with slightly anomalous PWATs for the area. Still looking
at a widespread half inch rainfall, with possibly some higher
amounts nearing an inch in the the mountains. Colder air rushes
in behind the front, but with only some lingering low level
moisture, not expecting much in the way of snow. Even in the
mountains, only about a half inch of snow accumulation is
expected. Orographic accent will be limited with flow generally
staying WSW to straight westerly behind the front, so this will
help keep accumulations light.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Saturday...

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement as we head later in
the week. May see a few snow showers in the mountains Wednesday
into Thursday in NW flow and upper trough swinging through.
However, after that, the trend has been for another warm up as
we close out the period. Large high pressure and upper ridge
build over the area at the end of the period and beyond with
return flow over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

Morning MVFR stratus have lifted leading to mostly sunny skies.
Satellite and sfc obs suggest there is broken thin cirrus across
the area. In addition, a mid level deck is evident in satellite
images to affect southern WV including BKW through this evening.

High pressure will continue in control with widespread VFR
conditions through the period.

A warm front will lift across the area overnight tonight.
Although light drizzle or sprinkles can occur with this feature,
confidence is low, and were not included in TAF.

Flow will continue out of the S to SW through the TAF period.

A cold front will approach Monday capable to produce IFR/MVFR
conditions and gusty winds along the heaviest rain showers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add IFR visibilities if
drizzle or rain materialize tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible Monday/Monday night under rain showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ


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