Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 161745
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1232 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will build in tonight providing clearing. The
high remains on Friday. Strong cold front for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

Some cold air advection will continue this evening, allowing for a
stratus deck in some locations. Moisture depth is limited, so any
upslope precipitation should be very light and limited to
northeastern WV. Therefore will only mention sprinkles or flurries.
As warm air advection sets in later tonight, expect clearing skies.

A high pressure system will provide dry weather and plenty of
sunshine for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Although we start with high pressure overhead the dominant
feature this period is a strong cold front that will rip through
the region on Saturday.

Warm air advection kicks in on Friday night out ahead of the
front with deep southwesterly return flow. Warm front generally
passes to our north and the region will be well entrenched in
the warm sector by noon Saturday. This will send temperatures
soaring into the 60s before showers break out with the front in
the Ohio Valley by late Saturday afternoon. Yes it is November,
but there may be enough forcing and instability with the front
for some embedded thunder, but not enough confidence to put in
the forecast at this time. Will have to watch for any convective
line that develops, with forecast soundings showing 55 to 60
knots at only 2K feet the heavier showers could bring some
strong wind gusts down to the surface.

The front clears the mountains late Saturday night and strong
CAA expected behind it. With the colder air and strong NW flow,
upslope snow appears likely across western facing slopes.
Depending when the changeover occurs, we may not see much in
the way of accumulation until during the day on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

Depending how much Great Lake moisture comes down behind the
front, snowfall amounts will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch
range in the favorable upslope areas. By early Monday morning,
weak ridging and WAA will cut off the snow. Models really
diverge as we head into Thanksgiving week, so overall details
are fuzzy at this time. At this time, no significant systems
are expected, but a blend of ensemble and operational guidance
does bring cool temperatures back in by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

An MVFR cloud deck can be expected at many location this afternoon
and evening due to cold air advection. The deck is expected to erode
overnight as a high pressure system builds in. Clouds will remain
the longest in the northern WV mountains.

VFR conditions can be expected on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR restrictions could vary,
especially the erosion of clouds overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible Saturday and Saturday night in precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...RPY


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