Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 152020
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers this evening, with cold front crossing tonight. High
pressure crosses Thursday night. Strong cold front for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

A band of showers will move across the area late this afternoon and
this evening, followed by a cold front. Some of the meso models are
showing that the band does not remain solid as it moves across the
area, especially in the southern counties. Therefore, will run the
highest pops in the northern counties.

Due to only shallow moisture behind the front, will just run some
drizzle. Can`t rule out some freezing drizzle in the highest
elevations late tonight into Thursday, but don`t expect much in the
way of accumulation and only on elevated surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

The period starts with surface high pressure and below average
temperatures in place. Some lingering freezing drizzle/drizzle
up in the mountains is possible, with just cold enough
temperatures aloft suggesting actual snow flake formation before
precipitation tapers entirely by midnight as LL moisture wanes.

A ridge builds into the region with southerly flow turning more
southwesterly by Friday night, ushering in the next system.
Model disagreements are quite extensive on the location, timing,
and coverage of this system... including the leading warm front
late in this period. Shower activity will favor the northern
counties along the warm front Friday night. Moisture
availability is climatologically high with PWATS exceeding 1"
near the warm front in model estimates, so may need to keep an
eye on any sort of heavy rain should it train over our area.
But, heaviest rain at this point is forecast to stay north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

As mentioned previously, agreement between long-term
operational models is still poor, especially with timing (though
improving). Still, should have modest clearing in the warm
sector at some point Saturday as the warm front lifts northward.
The GFS continues to be on the early side, bringing an
organized convective line along the cold front Saturday
afternoon and evening while the Euro lags the system from the
upper level trough down with moderate stratiform rain and
frontal passage Saturday night. Strong upper-level flow
exceeding 100 kts, low/mid level flow exceeding 50 kts, and the
possibility of heavy rain suggests widespread lowland gusts in
the 20-30 kt and 30-40 kt gusts in the mountains are probable.

Models agree on cold northwesterly flow after system exit, with
CAA peaking Sunday afternoon into Monday. Upslope/CAA showers
and widespread cloud cover are expected and favored in the
higher elevations and toward the North where better LL moisture
exists thanks to the warm Great Lakes/upslope influence. Ridging
cuts off CAA/upslope by Monday with temperatures warming through
Tuesday. The next system, again with extensive dynamic
differences amongst models, comes through by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

A band of showers will move across the area late this afternoon and
this evening, producing MVFR conditions, with some brief IFR
possible. This will be followed by a cold front with some IFR or low
MVFR conditions and some drizzle. Conditions will improve some
behind the front later tonight into Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of and intensity of restrictions with
showers and the cold front could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible Saturday and Saturday night in precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK/MC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...ARJ



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