Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 191921
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow
will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front
passing Saturday. A strong cold front crosses late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

A ridge of high pressure remains in place with the center of
high pressure over the north central Gulf coast providing dry
weather to start the near-term. Brilliant sunshine and modest
low- level warm air advection warms us nicely into the 40`s
across lowland locations this afternoon. Decoupling tonight a
little tougher than last night with SW flow picking up aloft,
but still a decent bet in the most deeply incised, sheltered
valleys. Models are still struggling to latch onto any one
solution at this point. So have chose a middle-of-the-road
approach favoring cooler temperatures in low spots.

Tomorrow, moisture starts streaming in from the west/southwest
providing some low-level clouds/stratus to start. Low-levels and
eventually mid-levels saturate through the day, particularly
across the northern zones. So, have decided to introduce drizzle
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Friday...

Upper low moving west to east over the deep south will have
lower level moisture caught in the southwest flow and will
advect into the central Appalachians. Meanwhile, deepening
cyclone over the central plains coming off the Rockies brings a
warm front towards the area with overrunning producing
scattered rain across the region. Frontal system will eject into
the Mississippi valley with strengthening flows that will push
the warm frontal precipitation to the north. Warm air advection,
slowed slightly by the upper level low to the south, will get
in gear in the long term prior to frontal passage. ALl in all,
QPF with the overrunning will be very light, and temperatures by
Sunday should still reach lowland 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

Breezy conditions likely, sub advisory, as mild air continues to
pump northward ahead of the cold front that should be a
relatively quick mover through the area. Despite the strength of
the cold front and the Pacific origin and strong 850mb moisture
advection, no thunder is expected. POPs increase quickly after
18Z Monday, and the system quickly exits to the northeast. Flow
aloft settles back into a zonal pattern for the back end of the
extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

VFR conditions through today and tonight. Winds generally out
of the SW at 5-10 kts with gusts in the teens possible this
afternoon. Saturday morning, LLWS a distinct possibility across
sheltered site of EKN and perhaps elsewhere with 2kft winds
around 40kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low ceilings possible in southern, western
TAF sites Saturday near the end of this TAF period. Currently
few/sct clouds however there may be instances of bkn/ovc MVFR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible Saturday night with fog and drizzle...and again
Monday/Monday night with rain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/MC
NEAR TERM...MC
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ



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