Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 220813
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
413 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary in vicinity into the weekend with showers and
storms. Cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Friday...

Low pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will continue to
drift eastward today. Occluded front extending from it across
Ohio with a triple point with trailing cold front and warm front
will be centered over the Ohio river and then drift eastward
into WV. This will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
today through this evening across the CWA. With PWATs still
hovering in the 2 inch range any of these storms could produce
very heavy rain in a short period of time. The ground is nearly
saturated and it won`t take much to cause flooding again across
the area. Current FFA for the northern 2/3s of the CWA looks
good for now, but may have to be expanded depending on where
storms develop.

Tonight the low pressure area will lift towards the Great Lakes
and its associated frontal boundaries will continue to move
northeastward and exit the area during the early morning hours.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the boundaries will
also exit with it. Some lingering showers may persist over the
mountain zones into Saturday morning.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 231 PM Thursday...

A low pressure system will move from Indiana to the St Lawrence
Seaway and then into the Atlantic Ocean by the end of the period. As
it does, a warm front associated with the low will push northeast
Friday night with a cold front pushing southeast early Saturday.
Another cold front is then expected to push southeast across the
region Sunday into Sunday night.

This will keep plenty of moisture over the area allowing for showers
and thunderstorms. Much of the deeper moisture should exit the
region with the passage of the initial cold front with drier air
filtering into the area with the second front.

have kept mention of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast until
the second front pushes through.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 231 PM Thursday...

Dry high pressure system will build into the region on Monday with
this feature expected to remain in control through mid week.

A few storms are possible early Monday with dry weather anticipated
through much of Wednesday.  The high should push east allowing a
warm front to approach the region from the southwest Wednesday into
Thursday.  This feature should result in chances of showers and
storms overspreading the area from the west Wednesday into
Thursday.

After several days of warm and rather muggy mornings, lows
Tuesday morning should be quite pleasant with readings in the
mid 50s to0 low 60s across the lowlands with readings in the 50s
across the mountains. However, expect morning wills become
quite muggy again as low-level moisture returns.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Warm front now just north of the area will continue to move
northward. Rain associated with it will also exit the area as
well. Some breaks in the clouds will allow for MVFR/IFR fog to
develop quickly during the early morning hours. Another frontal
boundary will move into the region today. This will bring
another round of MVFR/IFR conditions in showers and
thunderstorms to the area from late morning through the
afternoon and evening hours.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to Low

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and level of restrictions may vary
in showers and thunderstorms through the period. Fog development may
may vary through the morning hours..

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 06/22/18
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR conditions expected in afternoon thunderstorms
through the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ007>011-014>020-
     027>032-039-040-519>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JS



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