Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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398
FXUS61 KRLX 241953
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
253 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather through tonight. A cold
front crosses Saturday with limited moisture. Cooler Sunday.
Milder through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

A broad high pressure will continue to build east into the OH
Valley and WV through early Saturday. Then, clouds and showers
will increase ahead of an approaching front. Moisture
associated with this front is limited. Therefore, expect light
rain showers mainly across the northern portions of southeast OH
and northern portions of WV on Saturday. Otherwise, especially
the southern sections will remain dry with plenty of clouds.

Models show different solutions with the limited moisture. Only
the NAM brings light QPF while the rest of high resolution
models are dry with this front.

Southerly winds should keep hilltops and ridges a bit warmer,
but low spots may decouple before the clouds arrive. Went with
the blend of models for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

A mainly-dry cold front passes through the region during the day
Saturday, with deep northwesterly flow providing strong cold
air advection Saturday night. Moisture near the front itself is
scarce, however low-level moisture from the Great Lakes, cold
air advection processes, and upsloping will continue precip
chances. Expect scattered rain showers in the northern WV
mountains with a brief switch to mixed precip and possible light
snow during the pre- dawn hours of Sunday, tapering entirely by
mid-morning. High pressure quickly builds from the southwest
Sunday, shifting to the Piedmont region by late Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday

Southwesterly flow gradually creeps mild, above-average
temperatures back into the region through mid-week. Models agree
at this point on a short-wave trough moving through late in the
week with rain showers, however timing discrepancies are abound
so went with a general blend of PoPs with cooler temperatures on
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions expected through the period. High
pressure will remain in control through tonight. Clouds will be
on the increase and a low chance for rain showers is possible
across the northern sites as a weak system approaches from the
west.

Southwesterly flow becomes more southerly tonight. Winds will be
calm where the atmosphere decouples.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...ARJ



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