Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 151423
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
923 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses late tonight. High pressure crosses Thursday
night. Strong cold front for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 920 AM Wednesday...

Just some minor tweaks to the package this morning.


As of 130 AM Wednesday...

High pressure will provide dry conditions this morning. As this
high pressure shifts east, flow becomes southwest, pumping
moisture and warmer temperatures to the area this afternoon and
evening as a cold front approaches from the west.

Models have similar timing of the arrival of the convection
ahead of the cold front. General consensus is that scattered
showers will reach southeast OH by 21-00Z, and then spread east
to cover most of the area. The actual cold front will reach the
OH River by 06Z Thursday.

Used the bias corrected SREF for temperatures through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Wednesday...

High pressure dominates much of the short term period. There may
be a brief instance of upslope snow showers in the mountains on
Thursday in NW flow. However, conditions will improve through
the day and skies will clear out for a cold night, with lows
Friday morning dropping below freezing everywhere.

Temperatures will recover nicely on Friday as the surface high
slides east and weak return flow enters the region. We should
stay dry most of the day on Friday, but warm front pushes in
Friday night and will likely kick off some showers, especially
across Northern Zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...

Models are starting to come in better agreement with the 00Z
model suite. GFS has slowly been trending toward the Euro, but
although it has delayed the arrival of the cold front from
previous runs, it still pushes things through a bit faster than
the Euro. Either way, due to the differences in timing still,
PoP has been spread out more over the period using a blend of
ensemble and operational guidance.

Saturday afternoon through Saturday night is starting look like
the time frame we will see the front come through. Still
looking at strong forcing and an impressive LLJ out ahead of the
front. Still though, the front will be quite progressive, so
think we will likely see a quick hit of heavy rain and gusty
winds, but shouldn`t be enough to cause too many issues. More
concerned with strong gusty winds right now more than any water
issues. With 50 to 60 knots at 850 mb, any convective line that
may form could transfer some of those winds down to the surface.

After the front passes we will see strong CAA on NW flow. This
will likely kick off some upslope snow showers across the
mountains. We may even get a few flakes across the Lowlands
depending on how fast the cold air filters in.

By the start of next week, ridging starts to build in again
bringing warmer air back to the area. The models have also eased
back on the cold arriving towards the middle of next week, so
maybe Thanksgiving will not be too cold after all.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

High pressure dominating the weather conditions with dry air in
place. Satellite images show river valley fog across central and
southern WV. The CRW obs shows valley fog as well.In addition,
RAP boundary layer winds are around 10 knots. However,
temperatures will continue to drop below freezing overnight.
This will produce freeze/frost instead of fog. The fog should
remain shallow.

Therefore, expect mainly VFR conditions at most sites except
nearby river basins.

Low level flow turning more southeasterly, and increasing to 10
to 15 kts Wednesday morning.

MVFR/IFR ceilings will return as a cold front approaches from
the west Wednesday afternoon, and rain is likely to reach the
Ohio River by 00Z Wednesday. Expect brief periods of IFR
conditions along the heaviest showers.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: An MVFR deck may reach BKW early Wednesday
morning. Fog may lower visibility to IFR at EKN, and may form
at CKB or CRW, overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ



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