Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 190710
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
210 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow
will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front
passing Saturday. A strong cold front crosses late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM Friday...

Quiet near term period ahead. Not much in the way of clouds with
a dry column in place. This does create tricky low temperature
forecasts... with some snow on the ground and clear skies, spots
the decouple have the potential to really drop quickly. But,
with some WAA off the surface, and lingering flow the question
becomes if valleys can decouple or not. So far early this
morning, we have kept a surface puff going at most locations and
temperatures have not dropped overly fast -- in fact here at
the office we have been warming slightly over the last couple
hours. Models have quite a spread tomorrow night as well, opted
to go colder than the previous forecast by several degrees for
most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Friday...

Upper low moving west to east over the deep south will have
lower level moisture caught in the southwest flow and will
advect into the central Appalachians. Meanwhile, deepening
cyclone over the central plains coming off the Rockies brings a
warm front towards the area with overrunning producing
scattered rain across the region. Frontal system will eject into
the Mississippi valley with strengthening flows that will push
the warm frontal precipitation to the north. Warm air advection,
slowed slightly by the upper level low to the south, will get
in gear in the long term prior to frontal passage. ALl in all,
QPF with the overrunning will be very light, and temperatures by
Sunday should still reach lowland 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 AM Thursday...

Breezy conditions likely, sub advisory, as mild air continues to
pump northward ahead of the cold front that should be a
relatively quick mover through the area. Despite the strength of
the cold front and the Pacific origin and strong 850mb moisture
advection, no thunder is expected. POPs increase quickly after
18Z Monday, and the system quickly exits to the northeast. Flow
aloft settles back into a zonal pattern for the back end of the
extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Friday...

VFR expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be S
to SW, with some gusts of 15-20 kts possible during the
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 01/19/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ



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