Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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156
FXUS61 KRLX 221027
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
627 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front
approaches middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM Friday...

Thin high clouds drifting southwestward into WV will do little
to change the forecast.

As of 255 AM Friday...

Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates our
weather today and tonight. Stagnant low level moisture under
mostly clear skies and near calm winds will bring our early
morning dense valley fog. This will mix out with a bit drier air
aloft by mid morning as heating gets under way. The final result
will be a mostly sunny and warm day, with light winds and highs
well in the 80s. Does not look to be enough dry air aloft to
significantly lower relative humidities this afternoon with the
mixing, with minimum afternoon relative humidities in the 40s.
Tonight looks to be a repeat of last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Significant wx nil through the short term with deep upper trough
anchored over the Great Basin and downstream elongated ridge
oriented northeast to southwest. 850mb temps in the 18C vicinity
keep well above normal temperatures going through the weekend
and into early next week before heights start to gradually
lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Upper ridge begins to break down and we will lose the barotropic
atmosphere that has dominated for the better part of a week.
Expecting a cold front to work its way through the Mississippi
Valley into the Ohio Valley, driven by the digging upper trough
over the Great Lakes for the day 7 time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z Friday thru 12Z Saturday...
As of 625 AM Friday...

High pressure dominating through Friday night spells mostly VFR
conditions; outside of LIFR river and valley fog 08Z to 14Z
both early Friday and Saturday mornings, affecting all the major
TAF sites. Afternoon SCT stratocu.

Winds will be near calm overnight and light northeast by later
Friday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary early Friday.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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