Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 150545 CCA
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1245 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses late Wednesday. High pressure crosses
Thursday night. Strong cold front for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1020 PM Tuesday...

Lowered temperatures a dew points a bit per latest trends and
near term guidance. Forecast otherwise on track as the last of
the stratocu is gone, for now.

As of 700 PM Tuesday...

Forecast on track.

As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Low stratus has been tough to scatter east of the Ohio River
thus far as the low level flow gradually veers around to the
east amid negligible WAA thus far. As the flow turns more
southeasterly and WAA increases this evening, much of the
lingering stratus should erode. Of course this will lead to the
eastern slopes locking in low clouds overnight. Lows were
derived from a blend of a consensus approach.

Wednesday morning should start with sunshine, but quickly become
filtered by an advancing cirrus canopy ahead of an approaching
cold front. Despite this, temps in the southeast flow downslope
areas should reach upper 50s. Timing of the front looks to hold
off until Wednesday evening...though prefrontal band of showers
will work in from west to east late in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will push southeast across the area Wednesday night
resulting in a good chance of showers. Models suggest that the
airmass will be warm enough for much of the precipitation to
fall in the form of rain. However, there could be some snow
showers in the highest elevations late Wednesday night as colder
air filters in. However, any snow showers that form should
quickly switch back over to rain showers before ending Thursday.

High pressure builds in by late Thursday and remain in place
Thursday Night. Generally used a blend of guidance for the high
temps for Thursday and lows Wednesday night and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

High pressure should move east allowing a strong cold front to
push southeast. Models diverge with the timing of cold front.
GFS is faster with the front pushing southeast on Saturday while
the ECMWF brings it on Saturday. Have gone with a model blend
with the front pushing southeast by late Saturday.

There will be a good chance of precipitation with this feature
and have gone with likely PoPs. Would not be too surprised if
the PoPs ended up being even higher.

Combination of colder air, sufficient low-level moisture and
northwest flow should result in a decent shot of upslope snow in
the favored locations beginning Saturday night and continuing
into Sunday night.

We will have to continue to watch for a possible model solution
convergence.

Temperatures on Friday should be near normal with above normal
readings expected on Saturday ahead of the front. Behind the
front, below normal temperatures should prevail Sunday and
Monday with a warming trend Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

High pressure dominating the weather conditions with dry air in
place. Satellite images show river valley fog across central and
southern WV. The CRW obs shows valley fog as well.In addition,
RAP boundary layer winds are around 10 knots. However,
temperatures will continue to drop below freezing overnight.
This will produce freeze/frost instead of fog. The fog should
remain shallow.

Therefore, expect mainly VFR conditions at most sites except
nearby river basins.

Low level flow turning more southeasterly, and increasing to 10
to 15 kts Wednesday morning.

MVFR/IFR ceilings will return as a cold front approaches from
the west Wednesday afternoon, and rain is likely to reach the
Ohio River by 00Z Wednesday. Expect brief periods of IFR
conditions along the heaviest showers.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: An MVFR deck may reach BKW early Wednesday
morning. Fog may lower visibility to IFR at EKN, and may form
at CKB or CRW, overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 11/15/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/AB
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...JSH/AB
LONG TERM...JSH/AB
AVIATION...ARJ



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