Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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954
FXUS61 KRLX 201726
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
126 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front sags into the area today. Increasing chances of
storms Monday and Tuesday. Cold front crosses mid week,
followed by high pressure to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

Did elect to reduce pops quite a bit this afternoon. Not seeing
much in the way of development yet on radar or satellite, and
recent model runs seem to indicate conditions too stable for
much to form. Went ahead and elected to maintain a slight chance
during peak heating, but not overly confident in that.

The frontal boundary continues to linger across southeast Ohio
this afternoon, but should continue to slowly sag south a little
more today, before generally stalling out just south of or close
to the Ohio River. The front will return north on Monday, as low
pressure moves northeast into Ohio, with warm and humid
conditions on Monday. More convection expected on Monday in warm
sector, with most convection expected across southeast Ohio and
the mountains, with less expected across lowlands of WV. We are
still in a marginal risk for severe on Monday, but thinking
overall threat looks low, as lacking significant shear/dynamics.
Heavy downpours will accompany any convection.

As with last night, any areas that are able to clear, will see
fog development, particularly in favored river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Models showing moisture increasing on Monday, allowing for
showers and thunderstorms, more so during the afternoon and
evening hours. The moisture will remain through at least
Tuesday. A cold front will then push through Tuesday night or
Wednesday, with less model spread in the timing of the front as
compared to model runs on previous nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

A high pressure system will then provide a lull in the activity
for Thursday and Friday. Considerable differences then begin to
show up in the models in regards to when moisture will return to
the region. Therefore, confidence in the forecast deteriorates
for the beginning of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions for much of the area through 04Z, when LIFR/VLIFR
valley fog is expected to develop. Any fog will generally
dissipate after 13Z for a return of VFR conditions area wide.
However, convection will increase again particularly after 15Z,
especially across southeast Ohio and mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent fog overnight may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the
beginning of the work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL



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