Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 220639
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
239 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front
approaches middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1042 PM Thursday...

No significant changes made this evening. Expect river valley
fog once again...perhaps with a bit later of an onset than last
night.

As of 225 PM Thursday...

A few pop-up showers dot the radar across southern portions of
the area this afternoon, where the cu field is a bit more stout
than farther north. One or two showers may stand up into a
thunderstorm.

The causative weak upper level low drifts southeastward tonight.
This, along with loss of heating, will eradicate the showers
and cumulus around sunset.

Stacked high pressure builds tonight and Friday. Deep layer
light flow will allow for widespread dense valley fog tonight,
which then gives way to a mainly sunny Friday by late morning.

Temperatures close to mostly well converged guidance in this
benign pattern. Lowered the valleys tonight per the MET. The
MET did seem high for Friday, but raised some spots a notch or
so. Temperatures continue above normal per continued upper level
ridging, and no air mass change.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Significant wx nil through the short term with deep upper trough
anchored over the Great Basin and downstream elongated ridge
oriented northeast to southwest. 850mb temps in the 18C vicinity
keep well above normal temperatures going through the weekend
and into early next week before heights start to gradually
lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Upper ridge begins to break down and we will lose the barotropic
atmosphere that has dominated for the better part of a week.
Expecting a cold front to work its way through the Mississippi
Valley into the Ohio Valley, driven by the digging upper trough
over the Great Lakes for the day 7 time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z Friday thru 06Z Saturday...
As of 125 AM Friday...

High pressure dominating through Friday spells VFR mostly
clear; outside of widespread dense valley fog 07Z to 13Z Friday
affecting all the major TAF sites. Afternoon SCT stratocu.

Winds will be near calm overnight and light northeast by later
Friday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary early Friday.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/22/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV


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