Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191751
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
151 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper system crosses today. Weak disturbances cross early next
week. Cold front crosses mid week, followed by high pressure to
end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...

Upper trough will swing through the CWA this evening, with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as it does so.
Still overall expecting a low chance for anything to become
severe, with overall lack of significant wind shear and strong
dynamics, but will continue to highlight the potential in the
HWO with SPC placing much of the CWA in a marginal risk for
today. There are some breaks in the clouds noted on satellite,
which of course will aid in thunderstorm development. Any
storms that do develop will be capable of brief heavy downpours,
with the anomalously high PW air mass in place. However, storms
should overall move well, so widespread flooding risk is not
expected, but could see issues in low lying spots/poor drainage
areas.

Trough pushes to the east of the CWA late tonight. Much of the
area will start out quite cloudy on Sunday, particularly across
northern/eastern zones where low stratus is expected to develop.
Some clearing possible towards morning across extreme western
zones. Otherwise, weather on Sunday looks to be drier, with a
more stable pattern setting up, but can`t completely rule out a
pop up shower or storm, so maintained the slight chance during
the afternoon hours. Models hinting at the possibility of
increasingly unsettled weather late Sunday night, into the short
term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Some low level dry air will attempt to inhibit precipitation on
Sunday, providing a lull in the action.

Moisture returns to the area on Monday, providing a good chance
for showers and thunderstorms. The moisture will remain through
at least Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Models diverge a bit for mid week with the timing of a cold
front pushing through the region, with the Canadian actually
waiting until Thursday. With such a wide spread in guidance,
confidence for mid week is fairly low. By Thursday night, models
all have the front south of the region, providing dry weather
and an increase in confidence for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the
area this afternoon and evening. Expect heavy downpours, and
strong gusty winds in vicinity of storms, along with temporary
MVFR/IFR restrictions. Convection will decrease in coverage
after 03Z, however, widespread MVFR cigs are expected to
develop, particularly across the mountains and across north
central WV. Southwesterly winds, with occasional gusts 15-20kts
through 03Z. Gradual improvement to VFR after 15Z Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of convection this
afternoon may vary. Development and extent of stratus tonight
may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the
beginning of the work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.