Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 201535
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1135 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level impulse brings some showers, perhaps a
thunderstorm, this afternoon. Weak high pressure builds through
the weekend. Cold front approaches by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM Wednesday...

Made slight adjustments to PoPs this afternoon, and for
temperatures climbing a little fast out of the gate. Otherwise
forecast on track.

As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Tweaked POPs to better reflect the showers which have drifted a
bit farther NE than previously forecast. Also made some minor
changes to temperatures and sky based on current obs and trends.

As of 140 AM Wednesday...

An upper level disturbance is driving showers across the Ohio
River Valley early this morning. This feature will gradually
move east today, with isolated to scattered showers possible
across the entire forecast area. Also expecting some rumbles of
thunder, but with no surface help convection is fully reliant
on upper forcing. So other than brief downpours in a 1.5 inch
precipitable water environment, no impactful thunderstorms
expected. Any showers and storms should taper off after sunset
tonight.

Temperatures will continue to run a couple degrees above normal
for both highs and lows. Blended in ECMWF MOS with only minor
changes to previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Diurnal heating and orographic effects could produce isolated to
scattered showers or thunderstorms over the central and southern
mountains Thursday into Thursday evening. Drier conditions
expected Friday and Saturday as drier air moves in.

Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this time of
year, with foggy mornings continuing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

High pressure with very relaxed pressure gradient will prevail
this weekend into the beginning of the new week. A cold front
will approach the area from the west by mid week to bring
isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms.

With very light sfc winds, mostly clear skies and available low
level moisture will continue to produce foggy conditions in
river valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Any fog will dissipate 12Z-14Z with generally VFR expected
today. Will have some isolated to scattered showers around, so
could get brief restrictions if these pass over a TAF site.

Valley fog expected again tonight, however just where and how
dense will depend on how the cloud deck evolves late today and
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need amendments to add MVFR to IFR in
showers or storms this afternoon. Fog forecast for tonight may
need adjustments on timing and density.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning through the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



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