Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 150004
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
704 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses late Wednesday. High pressure crosses
Thursday night. Strong cold front for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM Tuesday...

Forecast on track.

As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Low stratus has been tough to scatter east of the Ohio River
thus far as the low level flow gradually veers around to the
east amid negligible WAA thus far. As the flow turns more
southeasterly and WAA increases this evening, much of the
lingering stratus should erode. Of course this will lead to the
eastern slopes locking in low clouds overnight. Lows were
derived from a blend of a consensus approach.

Wednesday morning should start with sunshine, but quickly become
filtered by an advancing cirrus canopy ahead of an approaching
cold front. Despite this, temps in the southeast flow downslope
areas should reach upper 50s. Timing of the front looks to hold
off until Wednesday evening...though prefrontal band of showers
will work in from west to east late in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will push southeast across the area Wednesday night
resulting in a good chance of showers. Models suggest that the
airmass will be warm enough for much of the precipitation to
fall in the form of rain. However, there could be some snow
showers in the highest elevations late Wednesday night as colder
air filters in. However, any snow showers that form should
quickly switch back over to rain showers before ending Thursday.

High pressure builds in by late Thursday and remain in place
Thursday Night. Generally used a blend of guidance for the high
temps for Thursday and lows Wednesday night and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

High pressure should move east allowing a strong cold front to
push southeast. Models diverge with the timing of cold front.
GFS is faster with the front pushing southeast on Saturday while
the ECMWF brings it on Saturday. Have gone with a model blend
with the front pushing southeast by late Saturday.

There will be a good chance of precipitation with this feature
and have gone with likely PoPs. Would not be too surprised if
the PoPs ended up being even higher.

Combination of colder air, sufficient low-level moisture and
northwest flow should result in a decent shot of upslope snow in
the favored locations beginning Saturday night and continuing
into Sunday night.

We will have to continue to watch for a possible model solution
convergence.

Temperatures on Friday should be near normal with above normal
readings expected on Saturday ahead of the front. Behind the
front, below normal temperatures should prevail Sunday and
Monday with a warming trend Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM Tuesday...

MVFR stratocu deck lingering in the CKB to EKN area, may break
up at times this evening, before dissipating altogether by 04Z.

Despite a mainly clear and calm night, and moist boundary
layer, guidance is strongly suggesting fog will not form
tonight, except perhaps in the Tygart Valley, where MVFR is
coded up 08-14Z. Otherwise low level flow turning more
southeasterly, and increasing to 10 to 15 kts, should prevent
dense fog formation at the terminals. This southeast flow may
bring an MVFR deck close to BKW 08-17Z.

A cold front approaching from the west will bring lowering
ceilings from that direction Wednesday afternoon, and rain is
likely to reach the Ohio River by 00Z Wednesday.

Light east to northeast surface flow will become light southeast
early Wednesday morning, and then increase a bit from the south
to southwest Wednesday afternoon. Light east flow aloft will
gradually veer to the south by dawn Wednesday, and the become
moderate southwest by Wednesday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of breakup of MVFR deck at EKN may
vary tonight. MVFR deck may or may not reappear at ckb tonight.
An MVFR deck may reach BKW early Wednesday morning. Fog may
lower visibility to IFR at EKN, and may form at CKB or CRW,
overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/AB
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...JSH/AB
LONG TERM...JSH/AB
AVIATION...TRM



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