Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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285
FXUS61 KRLX 211746
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak warm front moves northward today. Cold front crosses
Tuesday night. High pressure to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Front which was stalled near I-64 is starting to drift back
north early this afternoon... a trend which should continue
through the remaining of the afternoon. Starting to get showers
popping up near and south of the front which will also
gradually expand in the instability of the warm sector this
afternoon and drift northward into this evening. Also currently have
a cluster of showers and storms approaching the far NW forecast
area which. Models had been struggling a bit with activity
north of the front, but HRRR seems to have latched on to this
and carries it across the NW corner of the CWA over the next
couple hours. Shear is not all that great today -- 0-6km bulk
shear maxes out around 25kts across the west and north, but with
plenty of instability some storms may become strong to severe
with gusty outflow and hail the main threat. With slower storm
motion and precipitable water around 1.5 inches, any repetitive
cells could lead to isolated water concerns.

In a rather juicy atmosphere think at least some isolated to
scattered showers and storms will linger through the night so
kept POPs going.

A cold front will approach from the west late Tuesday. Ahead of
this front we should see areas of showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. Did go with an area of likely POPs
crossing from west to east through the day associated with an
upper level shortwave trough running out ahead of the surface
cold front. With lots of clouds around all day, instability is
pretty sparse, but with the upper level support and some
surface convergence an isolated stronger storm or two is
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Monday...

A trof axis and associated cold front will cross late Tuesday
night and early Wednesday, with drier air advecting in for the
afternoon. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday
night and Thursday with a more comfortable airmass for folks to
enjoy. There probably will be some dense river valley fog around
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

High pressure moves east of the area Friday and Saturday, allowing a
return southerly flow of increasingly warm and humid air. This will
bring the threat for mainly diurnally driven showers/storms across
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia Friday, with everyone
else remaining dry. It appears our holiday weekend is shaping up to
be unsettled. A tropical system meandering along the northern Gulf
coast will combine with return from from the upper ridge off the
southeast coast and an approaching upper level trof for rounds of
showers/storms over the weekend. PWATS surge to near 2 inches on
Sunday with downpours potentially adding to a flooding concern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

A warm front will lift through today with showers and
thunderstorms. Very tough to time these out to any specific
terminal so went with general vicinity mention right now and
expect amendments will be needed as cells approach different
sites. Coverage low enough to let this fall off overnight, but
still expect some echos on radar overnight. Ahead of a cold
front, expect more showers and storms on Tuesday.

Any storms will be capable of brief restrictions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions with convection
could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into Tuesday
night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ



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