Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141908
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
208 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses late Wednesday. High pressure crosses
Thursday night. Strong cold front for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Low stratus has been tough to scatter east of the Ohio River
thus far as the low level flow gradually veers around to the
east amid negligible WAA thus far. As the flow turns more
southeasterly and WAA increases this evening, much of the
lingering stratus should erode. Of course this will lead to the
eastern slopes locking in low clouds overnight. Lows were
derived from a blend of a consensus approach.

Wednesday morning should start with sunshine, but quickly become
filtered by an advancing cirrus canopy ahead of an approaching
cold front. Despite this, temps in the southeast flow downslope
areas should reach upper 50s. Timing of the front looks to hold
off until Wednesday evening...though prefrontal band of showers
will work in from west to east late in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will push southeast across the area Wednesday night
resulting in a good chance of showers. Models suggest that the
airmass will be warm enough for much of the precipitation to
fall in the form of rain. However, there could be some snow
showers in the highest elevations late Wednesday night as colder
air filters in. However, any snow showers that form should
quickly switch back over to rain showers before ending Thursday.

High pressure builds in by late Thursday and remain in place
Thursday Night. Generally used a blend of guidance for the high
temps for Thursday and lows Wednesday night and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

High pressure should move east allowing a strong cold front to
push southeast. Models diverge with the timing of cold front.
GFS is faster with the front pushing southeast on Saturday while
the ECMWF brings it on Saturday. Have gone with a model blend
with the front pushing southeast by late Saturday.

There will be a good chance of precipitation with this feature
and have gone with likely PoPs. Would not be too surprised if
the PoPs ended up being even higher.

Combination of colder air, sufficient low-level moisture and
northwest flow should result in a decent shot of upslope snow in
the favored locations beginning Saturday night and continuing
into Sunday night.

We will have to continue to watch for a possible model solution
convergence.

Temperatures on Friday should be near normal with above normal
readings expected on Saturday ahead of the front. Behind the
front, below normal temperatures should prevail Sunday and
Monday with a warming trend Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Lingering low stratus and stratocu will keep general MVFR for
HTS/CKB/EKN/BKW thru 20Z, after which bases should rise into low
end VFR before scattering out this evening.

Low level flow turns more southeasterly and increases 10 to 15
kts. This should prevent dense fog formation at the terminals,
save for some MVFR vsby at EKN. Low stratus on the eastern
slopes may sneak into BKW during the predawn, but confidence not
high enough to include in TAF at this distance.

VFR conditions dominate Wednesday 12 to 18Z as cirrus advances
into the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement this afternoon may
vary an hour or so. MVFR cigs may develop into BKW overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/AB
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JSH/AB
LONG TERM...JSH/AB
AVIATION...30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.