Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 191310
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
910 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper system crosses today. Weak disturbances cross early next
week. Cold front crosses mid week, followed by high pressure to
end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM Saturday...
No significant changes necessary.

As of 622 AM Saturday...

Forecast on track this morning. Some peaks of sun look to greet
the early risers and yard sale patrons across southern counties
this morning.

As of 145 AM Saturday...

Pesky upper low finally gets the kick today as it opens up and
lifts northeast through the area. Expect showers and storms to
increase in coverage as the day progresses from west to east.
I`m not overly impressed with severe potential for this
afternoon. Mixed layer CAPE is meager and while mid level lapse
rates increase and wbz heights decrease with the arrival of the
upper trof, deep layer shear values are marginal at best to
sustain updrafts capable of large hail. Having said that HRRR
ensembles paint do paint a risk across portions of southeast OH
northern WV lowlands this afternoon, and SPC maintains a
marginal risk today across most of the area. DCAPE values
suggest a low damaging wind threat with any bowing segments as
some drier air below 5kft could intensify any downdrafts. Storm
motion should mitigate flooding concerns, though localized
flooding in poor drainage areas is possible across the north.

The upper trof axis pushes east this evening, taking the bulk of
the showers and storms with it. Some showers will be noted
across the northern lowlands and northern mountains tonight along
a weak frontal boundary. Boundary layer flow may result in low
stratus formation versus fog, with quite a bit of stratus
envisioned across northern counties and most of the mountain
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Some low level dry air will attempt to inhibit precipitation on
Sunday, providing a lull in the action.

Moisture returns to the area on Monday, providing a good chance
for showers and thunderstorms. The moisture will remain through
at least Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Models diverge a bit for mid week with the timing of a cold
front pushing through the region, with the Canadian actually
waiting until Thursday. With such a wide spread in guidance,
confidence for mid week is fairly low. By Thursday night, models
all have the front south of the region, providing dry weather
and an increase in confidence for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 625 AM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage midday
onward as an upper level trof crosses. PROB30 IFR groups were
inserted at this distance based on the most probably times to
affect the various terminals late this afternoon and early
evening. Winds will become gusty out of the southwest today, on
the order of 15 to 20 kts.

The upper level trof pushes east tonight, taking most of the
showers and storms with it. However, a weak front will cross
overnight with some light showers possible at CKB/EKN. Boundary
layer flow and lingering low level moisture will result in an
increase in low stratus at CKB/EKN/BKW late tonight, possibly
affecting KCRW as well.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of convection this
afternoon may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the
weekend and again for the beginning of the work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



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