Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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296
FXUS61 KRLX 211008
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
608 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak front across the area moves northward today. New cold
front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure mid- late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

A frontal boundary across the region should push back northward
today, with some showers or thunderstorms possibly forming this
morning over central Ohio and northern WV. More numerous showers and
thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon in the warm sector
south of the front as moisture increases. Models showing sufficient
cape in OH, KY, and western WV that some damaging hail and/or winds
are a possibility.

As a cold front edges closer to the area Monday night, models
indicate that showers and thunderstorms could form in advance of the
front, especially over the western and northern portions of the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Monday...

Rounds of showers and storms Tuesday ahead of an approaching s/w
trof. SPC has much of southeast Ohio outlooked in marginal for late
Tuesday, tied closer to the upper trof axis where better deep layer
shear will exist along with better instability. The trof axis and
associated cold front will cross late Tuesday night and early
Wednesday, with drier air advecting in for the afternoon. High
pressure builds in from the north Wednesday night and Thursday with
a more comfortable airmass for folks to enjoy. There probably will
be some dense river valley fog around Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

High pressure moves east of the area Friday and Saturday, allowing a
return southerly flow of increasingly warm and humid air. This will
bring the threat for mainly diurnally driven showers/storms across
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia Friday, with everyone
else remaining dry. It appears our holiday weekend is shaping up to
be unsettled. A tropical system meandering along the northern Gulf
coast will combine with return from from the upper ridge off the
southeast coast and an approaching upper level trof for rounds of
showers/storms over the weekend. PWATS surge to near 2 inches on
Sunday with downpours potentially adding to a flooding concern.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM Monday...

Some showers and thunderstorms will move across central
Ohio and northern West Virginia this morning. After patchy fog
burns off this morning, expect a cumulus deck to form. Showers
and thunderstorms will become more numerous this afternoon,
creating brief IFR conditions. Some showers and thunderstorms
will continue to be possible Monday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions with convection
could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY



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