Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 220713
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
313 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front
approaches middle to end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Friday...

Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates our
weather today and tonight. Stagnant low level moisture under
mostly clear skies and near calm winds will bring our early
morning dense valley fog. This will mix out with a bit drier air
aloft by mid morning as heating gets under way. The final result
will be a mostly sunny and warm day, with light winds and highs
well in the 80s. Does not look to be enough dry air aloft to
significantly lower relative humidities this afternoon with the
mixing, with minimum afternoon relative humidities in the 40s.
Tonight looks to be a repeat of last night.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Significant wx nil through the short term with deep upper trough
anchored over the Great Basin and downstream elongated ridge
oriented northeast to southwest. 850mb temps in the 18C vicinity
keep well above normal temperatures going through the weekend
and into early next week before heights start to gradually
lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Upper ridge begins to break down and we will lose the barotropic
atmosphere that has dominated for the better part of a week.
Expecting a cold front to work its way through the Mississippi
Valley into the Ohio Valley, driven by the digging upper trough
over the Great Lakes for the day 7 time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z Friday thru 06Z Saturday...
As of 125 AM Friday...

High pressure dominating through Friday spells VFR mostly
clear; outside of widespread dense valley fog 07Z to 13Z Friday
affecting all the major TAF sites. Afternoon SCT stratocu.

Winds will be near calm overnight and light northeast by later
Friday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary early Friday.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/22/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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