Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 211730
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1230 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest flow today brings milder afternoon. Cold front
crosses tonight. High pressure Wednesday through Thanksgiving
and Friday. Cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 AM Tuesday...Forecast remains mostly on track, but had
to up the sky cover over the next few hours as bands of
cirrostratus push through. Although this will bring a period of
overcast skies, it should be more of a filtered sunshine as the
deck shouldn`t be too thick.

As of 630 AM Tuesday...

The atmosphere has become mixed, with increasing winds and
rising temperatures over the middle Ohio valley, while the
valleys in and near the central Appalachians remained decoupled.

As of 300 AM Tuesday...

After a chilly start, a south to southwest flow around the back
side of high pressure moving off the east coast, brings about a
milder afternoon today. It also brings low level moisture
northward into the central appalachians, resulting in an
increase in cloud cover there late this afternoon and evening.

A northern stream short wave trough drives a surface cold front
through the area late tonight. This brings an increase in
clouds throughout the area tonight, along with the chance for
rain showers across northern portions of the area, where mid
level forcing associated with the front is strongest. Southern
portions of the area are left on the anticyclonic shear side of
the jet stream, and remain mainly dry.

The rain showers will transition to snow showers in the northern
WV mountains early Wednesday morning, as the colder air moves in
behind the front, although the -8 to -9 C at the top of the
moist layer near h85 is marginal for the presence of ice
crystals in cloud. Either way, little if any accumulation is
expected through 12Z Wednesday, as temperatures will be just
getting below freezing over the very highest ridges by then.

Stayed away from the high MAV on highs today, the previous
forecast close to the latest MET and short term consensus
guidance, which was also used for hourly temperatures tonight,
with the crossing cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Light rain and snow showers will taper off as the morning
progresses on Wednesday, with no additional accumulations
expected. High pressure, with cooler, but dry weather will take
hold for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with temperatures topping
out in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Another progressive system will affect the region late Friday night
into the weekend. Rain and snow showers are expected to develop,
particularly across the north, as a cold front sweeps across the
region. After a brief lull in the precipitation later in the day
Saturday, outside of upslope rain and snow showers across the
mountains, a reinforcing short wave will bring another round of
precipitation for Sunday, along with an additional shot of cooler
air. Light accumulations are expected across the mountainous
counties.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions through today and then MVFR ceilings will be
possible overnight as a cold front pushes through. This front
will bring a chance for rain and snow showers across the north
and mountains, with only brief restrictions possible due to the
lack of moisture with the front. High pressure builds back into
the area tomorrow and conditions should improve again late in
the TAF period.

Gusty winds everywhere will persist into this evening and then
only stronger gusts in the higher elevations after 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR stratocu could
vary late today and tonight. BKW and EKN ceilings could drop to
near IFR overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK



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