Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 140536
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1236 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds on Tuesday. Cold front crosses late
Wednesday. High pressure crosses Thursday night. Strong cold
front crosses Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 PM Monday...

Added drizzle into Tuesday morning. Forecast otherwise on
track.

As of 900 PM Monday...

Adjusted temperatures and dew points up slightly this cloudy
night, per latest trends and near term guidance. Guidance
including modeled low level temperature fields suggested lower
temperatures for the very high terrain of the northern WV
mountains late overnight into Tuesday morning. Also slowed
clearing a bit Tuesday afternoon, as the low level moisture
mixes into an afternoon cu field.

As of 700 PM Monday...

Forecast on track.

As of 1245 PM Monday...

A sfc low pressure system will continue to exit the area this
afternoon and tonight. Plenty of low level and northerly flow
will keep stratus, drizzle and patches of fog in the forecast
through tomorrow morning.

A slow improvement will continue over the area during the day
tomorrow as cooler high pressure and drier air starts to build
in over the region. Temperatures will remain on the cool side
with plenty of clouds around and with little diurnal range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

Models are generally in good agreement through the middle of the
week. High pressure is in control through the short term
period, but slides eastward on Wednesday. Weak return flow will
push up temperatures for Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold
front that arrives in the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Very weak
forcing with the front and the lack of moisture will make for
just a light rainfall across the region, with QPF amounts
topping out only around a tenth of an inch. By 12Z Thursday the
front has cleared the region with just some lingering showers in
the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

Model guidance really starts to diverge towards the end of the
week and into the weekend. Generally, there is good agreement
early on with high pressure pushing in behind the front on
Thursday, but this appears to be short-lived as a potent system
could impact the area late Friday or later in the weekend.
Models are consistent in the overall pattern, but there are
major timing differences at this time. Low pressure pushes out
of the Rockies and tracks northeastward into the Great Lakes.
All guidance indicates rapid development with this feature and
it eventually drags a strong cold front through.

Forcing looks impressive with upper level divergence and a strong
anomalous low level jet out ahead of the front. Guidance
indicates a H850 wind of 60 to 65 knots which is about 2 to 3
standard deviations above norms. Will have monitor how this
unfolds the next few days and although confidence is low at this
time, it does appear that the front progresses through quickly,
so flooding may not be much of a problem. However, winds may
become an issue, especially in the higher terrain. High pressure
and colder temperatures move in on Sunday and some leftover
upslope snow showers are possible in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM Tuesday...

Models and sfc obs continue to show abundant low level moisture
in the wake of a low pressure system lingering through the
overnight, and into the day Tuesday, bringing low MVFR to IFR
conditions, mainly on ceilings. Expect drizzle and low ceilings
at most sites except PKB.

Ceilings will improve to MVFR/VFR by mid morning Tuesday. As the
lower atmosphere gradually mix, ceilings will lift higher
through the early afternoon hours. Mostly clear skies will
prevail later Tuesday with diurnal cu developing in the
afternoon.

Light northerly surface flow overnight will veer to
light northeast Tuesday morning, and then light east by Tuesday
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR to LIFR
conditions may vary overnight, and timing of improvement on
Tuesday may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 11/14/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/99/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...ARJ



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