Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 211827
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
227 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips
southeastward this evening. Weak high pressure builds through
the weekend. Cold front approaches by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

A few pop-up showers dot the radar across southern portions of
the area this afternoon, where the cu field is a bit more stout
than farther north. One or two showers may stand up into a
thunderstorm.

The causative weak upper level low drifts southeastward tonight.
This, along with loss of heating, will eradicate the showers
and cumulus around sunset.

Stacked high pressure builds tonight and Friday. Deep layer
light flow will allow for widespread dense valley fog tonight,
which then gives way to a mainly sunny Friday by late morning.

Temperatures close to mostly well converged guidance in this
benign pattern. Lowered the valleys tonight per the MET. The
MET did seem high for Friday, but raised some spots a notch or
so. Temperatures continue above normal per continued upper level
ridging, and no air mass change.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

High pressure remains in control with mainly dry conditions,
and above normal temperatures through the weekend. An isolated
shower or storm could develop along the eastern mountains due to
diurnal heating and orographic effect. River valley fog
expected in mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

High pressure will remain in control at least through mid week with
dry conditions. On Thursday, a cold front reaches southeast Ohio
to spread showers and thunderstorms east across the CWA. At
this point, any QPF in the long term period looks to remain
minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

Satellite imagery early this afternoon showed the cu field most
prevalent across southern WV, eastern KY and southwest VA, where
there were isolated showers. These showers may increase in
coverage a bit, and one or two may stand up into a thunderstorm,
but impacts right at terminals is unlikely. Have VCTS at BKW
19-21Z, where and when the chance is a little greater.

The showers and clouds will dissipate at sunset on loss of
heating, and as the causative upper level disturbance slips
southeast of the area.

High pressure building surface and aloft tonight and Friday
spells widespread dense valley fog overnight into Friday
morning, followed by VFR conditions after 14Z Friday.

Flow surface and aloft weill be light northeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could get a passing shower at BKW this
afternoon. Fog timing and density may vary. However, since the
forecast is very aggressive with the fog, less fog is a bit
more likely alternative than more fog. This is especially the
case at BKW, where fog formation is more uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM


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