Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 170225
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
925 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Anafront east of the mountains, will produce snow accumulations
tonight. Arctic high pressure crosses Wednesday and Thursday.
Southwest flow of milder air this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 920 PM Tuesday...

Slowly losing the coverage and the intensity of the snow across
the region, and have cancelled a large portion of the headlines
for the area.

As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Radar images show two distinctive snow bands crossing the KY
and WV border near the tri state area. Sfc reports indicate 2 to
3 inches of snow have fallen during the last 12 hours.
Additional 3 inches of snow can be expected with these snow
bands across portions of southern WV through this evening.
Therefore, a Winter weather advisory for snow has been upgraded
to winter storm warning for heavy snow, and the rest of the area
remains under snow advisories.

Under strong cold advection, temperatures will fall into the
single digits everywhere overnight into early Wednesday
morning. Went with the blend of all models for temperatures
through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will continue to build overhead on Wednesday
night and another cold night is expected. Wind Chills could
reach advisory criteria in the mountain zones. Will continue to
highlight in the HWO. Good news is that ridging continues to
build overhead with warm air advection and temperatures should
climb above freezing by Thursday afternoon for a large portion
of the region. Friday will even be warmer yet as ridging remains
overhead and warm SW flow pushes into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...

A warm frontal boundary will lift north across the area over
the weekend, with light rain showers developing by Saturday
afternoon. We will be well within the warm sector on Sunday,
with temperatures possibly climbing into the upper 50s to low
60s. Cold front comes through on on Monday and will bring a shot
of moderate to heavy rain with it. As the system pulls out, we
may see a changeover to snow in the mountains Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 625 PM Tuesday...

Snow will slowly taper off west to east, with HTS and PKB nearly
out of the snow at this point, and expect less than an hour of
visibility restrictions from each of those two sites on the
front end of this forecast. Conditions improve through 06Z area
wide, and snow ends by 09Z tonight, with primarily only MVFR
ceilings an issue at that point. May break out from the OVC/BKN
into SCT conditions for a few hours here and there once the snow
exits. Wind gusts should remain under 12kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the exit of IFR snow may vary
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    L    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
None.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for
     WVZ520>526.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ027-028-030>032-039-040.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for
     WVZ024>026-033-034-515>519.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...26



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