Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 181404
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1004 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather pattern continues through Saturday with daily
shower/thunderstorm chances in a warm and humid air mass. After
a brief lull on Sunday, chances increase Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Friday...

Went ahead and decided to extend the flood watch in time across
northeastern zones. Wave of enhanced precipitation progged to
arrive around previous expiration time of watch across
northeast, and although flooding risk is fairly low, felt an
extension was warranted considering very low FFG values.

As of 145 AM Friday...

Upper level low will continue to slowly approach the area thru
tonight. The associated southerly flow will continue to advect
moisture into the region, with pwats running 1.5 to 1.75
inches. It remains difficult to pinpoint areas for downpours,
though the western lowlands and especially northeast Kentucky
and southern Ohio are favorited today. This is where
instability is highest, though not overly impressive. With flow
remaining somewhat light, downpours could lead to localized
flooding. FFG though remains high, as this area has by and large
escaped activity over the past few days. The mountains into the
northern lowlands continue to be targeted today and especially
tonight for rounds of general showers, though with instability
lacking, QPF should be held in check. The flood watch will
continue as for now it will not take much to cause high water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Friday...

An upper level trough will push through on Saturday, continuing
the chances of showers and thunderstorms. Can`t rule out some
thunderstorms becoming severe.

As this system pulls out of the area, some low level dry air
will attempt to inhibit precipitation, providing a lull in the
action.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Friday...

Moisture returns to the area on Monday, remaining through at
least Tuesday. Models then diverge a bit for mid week with the
timing of a cold front pushing through the region. Therefore,
confidence for mid week drops, although all models push the
front through by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 638 AM Friday...

Upper level low slowly approaches the area with rounds of
showers and storms today. KHTS/KCRW are targeted for scattered
convection this afternoon, where best instability will reside.
VCTS were inserted at this distance. Elsewhere general showers
could lead to brief reductions in vsby though VFR conditions
should be prevalent. The exception being KBKW, where continued
southeast flow is expected to bring cigs down into MVFR and
potentially IFR this morning, gradually lifting today.
Confidence is low on this scenario at the time with a mixed
signal seen in the various models.

Convection across western terminals will wane after sunset,
while general showers continue across northern terminals...ie
KCKB/EKN where vsby and/or cigs may drop into MVFR tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BKW may be too pessimistic with cigs.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the
weekend and again for the beginning of the work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ028-030>032-039-040-
     521>526.
     Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for WVZ033-034-515>520.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



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