Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190531
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm
afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse today into
Wednesday, with showers possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Generally quiet weather continues with weak high pressure at the
surface. We do have an upper level shortwave trough and very
weak cold front approaching from the west. This is already
pushing some mid to high clouds in from the west. The cold front
looks to wash out as it reaches CWA, but with some moisture
pooled along it and the help of the upper level forcing, have
isolated to scattered showers and storms in the middle Ohio
River Valley today.

Models are showing potential for showers tonight as well as the
axis of the upper shortwave trough drifts through. This feature
currently has showers and storms with it across IL/IN, however
concerned the washed out cold front will no longer have the umph
to keep things going after the sun set. Still...maintained some
isolated showers overnight for now...at least until higher res
models add their input.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

A weak upper-level disturbance moves overhead during the period
with a boundary draped across the Ohio Valley. Although the
front struggles to actually move into the area, upper- level
support and extant low- level moisture indicates at least
diurnal shower activity. Thunderstorms are possible with models
indicating instability on the order of 1500 CAPE Wednesday
afternoon, though little shear exists to organize into a severe
threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

Deep ridging across the eastern US extends into the region for
the period upstream of a meandering Jose in the Atlantic. This
more robust area of high pressure greatly limits shower and
storm activity. Low-level moisture remains, however, so foggy
mornings are likely. Mountain showers/storms are also possible
though likelihood generally wanes through the period with high
pressure building and pushing any opportunistic frontal boundary
northward out of the area. Brought PoP`s up somewhat in the
mountains through the period given moisture availability in
spite of weak forcing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Starting to see signs of fog formation early this morning, so
going with a near carbon copy of yesterdays fog forecast.
Delayed a bit across the west due to some initial clouds. Fog
will dissipate 13Z-14Z with VFR expected today. Expecting some
isolated to scattered showers across Ohio River Valley but not
enough confidence to include even a VCSH mention at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary. May
need to add a shower mention along and west of I-77.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 09/19/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...MZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.