Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 192259
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
559 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls
through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5h ridge strengthens across the eastern seaboard over the next
24 hours, leading to general height rises and gradual drying of
the atmospheric column. At the surface, a good fetch of south
to southwesterly flow continues with warm air advection. This
leads to well above normal temperatures from this afternoon into
Tuesday. For temps, used a blend of models hedging toward the
slightly cooler MET MOS guidance, although not entirely. Tuesday
should provide an early preview of late spring, early summer in
the heart of February.

Along the Ohio River...
Flood warnings continue along the Ohio River in our HSA below
Parkersburg. Parkersburg should be coming out of flood shortly.
As of 1 PM, the crest is just passing Huntington, and will pass
Ashland later this afternoon or evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Monday...

The period starts dry and solidly in the warm sector to start
the short term with Tuesday night/Wednesday morning temperatures
in the 50`s to around 60 across the area thanks to continued
southerly flow. Look for Wednesday highs in the 60`s to 70`s,
perhaps near 80 depending on the extent of western cloud cover.
Ridging aloft shifts off- shore of the East Coast with the
approach of a broad frontal zone from the West, increasing
precipitation chances during the day Wednesday. Showers continue
as the boundary moves into the region through Wednesday night
and stalls through the end of the period.

Thursday will be cooler as we`ll be placed on the cold side of
the frontal boundary. The best forcing in right entrance of
strong jet over eastern Canada at this time looks to provide
ample lift and in turn high rainfall rates near the Ohio River
Thursday. A relative lull in precipitation presents itself
Thursday night, though some models have the aforementioned
boundary again lifting to the north providing some light
showers. So, have chosen to keep PoP`s up in the chance
category to account for this. With PWAT exceeding 1.25" in the
Ohio Valley... high rainfall amounts are possible with around
0.75" forecast in the Ohio Valley with locally higher amounts
likely due to storm training, but will need to wait for higher
resolution data to pinpoint where.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

The all-too-familiar wet pattern continues through the weekend
with ridging off shore of the East Coast and troughing over the
western CONUS. This pattern will continue to pump in moisture
and warmth. Yet another wave moves across the stalled frontal
boundary Friday bringing higher precipitation chances
particularly in the Ohio Valley. Then, in a cautiously hopeful
turn of events, deep troughing to our West turns more zonal with
a progressive short wave pushing through one last wave of heavy
precipitation late Saturday through Sunday. Considering the
already saturated soils and rainfall leading up to this
prolonged weekend event, additional flooding on area creeks and
streams and perhaps main stem rivers remain a possibility and it
will continue to be highlighted in the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 555 PM Monday...

A southerly wind flow will provide VFR conditions for most of
the area through the TAF period. The exceptions are in the
southeast upslope counties where some MVFR clouds are possible,
and Tuesday morning in Ohio where some MVFR clouds are possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR clouds in Ohio and the southeast
upslope counties may or may not form.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MC
NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...RPY


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