Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 161811
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
211 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through Monday. Unsettled weather returns next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

Seeing convective initiation over north central OH which looks
like it will skirt the northwest periphery of our CWA later this
afternoon and into this evening. Environment over southeast OH
and central and southern WV quite stable and current thinking is
any convection will have a really tough time making this far
south. So will keep slight to chance pops to our far northern
zones, with a chance for some mountain showers on Sunday
afternoon.

For max temps on Sunday, used blended approach which takes us a
little above MOS guidance. It looks like most areas will remain
just below heat adv criteria with lowland indices running in
the mid to upper 90s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...

Upper level ridge remains largely in control of the weather
across our area Sunday and Monday. There are some hints that
northern and northeastern WV could see a few showers/storms
Sunday with a weakness in the ridge. The NAM model seems
overdone with its depiction of showers and storms across much of
the area Sunday. I will stay close to consensus with a slight
chance pop across northeastern zones Sunday and dry elsewhere.
Monday the ridge expands northward, though enough low level
moisture may lead to a few showers/storms across southern zones
if the cap can be broken.

An upper level shortwave will pass by to our north on Tuesday
and this will serve to flatten the ridge a bit. A weak cold
front will sag into the region late Tuesday, As a result,
shower/storm chances will be on the increase across southeast
Ohio Tuesday afternoon/night.

Heat advisories may be needed by Monday, though Sunday is
looking like me be able to escape any headlines. We remain hot
and humid thereafter, but clouds and precip chances should keep
the area void of 100 degree heat indices.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM Saturday...

The front takes until late Wednesday night/early Thursday to
clear the area, with shower/storm chances in the forecast until
it does so.

Temperatures should remain quite warm through the period with
afternoon readings cooling only slightly behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM Saturday...

Some early morning river valley fog, especially invof KEKN,
clearing by about 13Z Sunday. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
through the period with light surface flow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of river
valley fog could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KMC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.