Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 201940
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
240 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today yields to southwest flow tonight and
Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again
through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 202 PM Monday...

Main forecast concern through the near term will be
temperatures and winds as southwest flow engages behind a
departing high pressure system and in advance of an approaching
cold front.

With light winds anticipated early tonight, prime radiational
cooling conditions will result in a quick temp drop toward
dewpoints which currently reside in the low 20s. Temps will
level off later in the night across the lowlands as winds begin
to stir. However, sheltered mountain valleys will stay decoupled
through much of the night allowing them to fall deep into the
20s.

Winds will ramp up quickly after dawn on Tuesday as we mix up
into stronger winds aloft. Gusts 20 to 25 mph are expected out
of the southwest. The strong mixing and partial sunshine will
help boost temps into the 50s to near 60 for most locations
outside of the higher mountains. Clouds will be on the increase
through the day, but expect any precip with the approaching
front to hold off until Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

This period begins with a cold front approaching from the
northwest. Although we are expecting precipitation, amounts
still remain on the light side as the WPC QPF is only around
one tenth of an inch. Models indicate the northern quarter of
our area and the mountains will be the only locations that will
see the precipitation change over to a snow or rain/snow mix as
this system moves out early Wednesday.

Prefrontal temperatures will be near normal Tuesday night, but
will drop quickly as cold air moves. Temperatures Wednesday and
Wednesday night will be around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

High pressure, with below normal temperatures and light winds,
will be present Thanksgiving Day until early Saturday morning.

Although models still disagree somewhat another rain or
rain/snow event, especially for the northern part of our area,
is possible as yet another cold front moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1248 PM Monday...

Surface high pressure will slide by to our south over the next
24 hours as a cold front drops across the Great Lakes and into
the Ohio Valley. This will yield increasing southwesterly flow
which should preclude any fog formation tonight. While surface
winds will stay generally light through tonight, they will
increase and become gusty after dawn on Tuesday as the front
approaches. The southwest flow may transport just enough
moisture northward west of the mountains to produce a stratocu
field for a few hours Tuesday morning for HTS but am not
expecting any ceilings at this time.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A brief period of MVFR ceilings may occur
Tuesday morning at HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...ABE


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