Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 211441
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1041 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southward
this afternoon. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend.
Cold front approaches by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As Of 1040 AM Thursday...

Forecast on track.

As of 630 AM Thursday...

As upper level low heads east, may still get a pop up shower
across the mountains and southern coal fields this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise looking at a dry day with plenty of
sunshine. Afternoon highs will generally be 5-10 degrees above
normal. River valley fog expected again tonight under mostly
clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

High pressure remains in control with mainly dry conditions,
and above normal temperatures through the weekend. An isolated
shower or storm could develop along the eastern mountains due to
diurnal heating and orographic effect. River valley fog
expected in mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will remain in control at least through mid week with
dry conditions. On Thursday, a cold front reaches southeast Ohio
to spread showers and thunderstorms east across the CWA. At
this point, any QPF in the long term period looks to remain
minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

The fog should gradually break up 13Z-15Z with VFR expected for
the remainder of the day. Some pop up showers are possible
across the mountains and southern coal fields. Winds will
generally be light, out of the north to northeast. Another round
of river valley fog expected tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary. Could get
a passing shower at BKW this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ


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