Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 181928
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
328 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm
afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse Tuesday
through Wednesday, with showers possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

Area remains in a col, virtually right up through the upper
levels, between Jose churning off the eastern seaboard, and
upper level troughiness over the western U.S. Dirty ridging
generally prevails over the eastern U.S.

Patchy cloud continues including afternoon cu, and mid and high
cloud associated with weak upper level disturbances. The clouds
have had little impact on valley fog, which will occur again
overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. It may be impacted from
clouds from the next upper level disturbance, however.

Micro upper level ridging right over the mountains Tuesday,
should break the afternoon shower routine there. However, a weak
upper level disturbance producing showers and thunderstorms up
and down the Mississippi River Valley today, may do the same
into the middle Ohio valley Tuesday afternoon.

Leaned on low side of guidance on lows tonight, especially in
the valleys. Previous forecast was in line with converged
guidance on highs Tuesday, another above normal day with a warm
afternoon on tap.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

A weak upper-level disturbance moves overhead during the period
with a boundary draped across the Ohio Valley. Although the
front struggles to actually move into the area, upper- level
support and extant low- level moisture indicates at least
diurnal shower activity. Thunderstorms are possible with models
indicating instability on the order of 1500 CAPE Wednesday
afternoon, though little shear exists to organize into a severe
threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

Deep ridging across the eastern US extends into the region for
the period upstream of a meandering Jose in the Atlantic. This
more robust area of high pressure greatly limits shower and
storm activity. Low-level moisture remains, however, so foggy
mornings are likely. Mountain showers/storms are also possible
though likelihood generally wanes through the period with high
pressure building and pushing any opportunistic frontal boundary
northward out of the area. Brought PoP`s up somewhat in the
mountains through the period given moisture availability in
spite of weak forcing.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

High confidence persistence fog forecast. Have IFR roughly 6-14Z
PKB and EKN, 7-14Z HTS and CKB, 9-14Z CRW and none at BKW. The
transition from VFR to IFR tonight will be quick, as will the
improvement from IFR to VFR Tuesday morning.

Otherwise any shower that pops up in the mountains this
afternoon is not likely to significantly impact a terminal. A
weak upper level disturbance will approach the Ohio Valley
Tuesday morning. Clouds associated with it could impact the fog
there late. A shower or thunderstorm from that system could get
near the Ohio River by early Tuesday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog could vary an hour or so,
possibly more at HTS if clouds increase from the west early
enough Tuesday morning, and at CRW, depending upon when the Elk
River fog gets deep enough to envelop the runway.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...TRM



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