Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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725
FXUS61 KRLX 231732
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front approaches
middle to end of next week. Cooler airmass to follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...
No significant changes were necessary to the forecast in the
near term period. High pressure surface and aloft remains in
control, with above normal temperatures, and dry conditions.
Expecting another cool, clear night on tap again, with areas of
fog developing, burning off by mid morning Sunday, with another
sunny and hot day on tap.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

Very few changes to the forecast for the short term as upper
level ridging remains in control over the Ohio Valley through
early next week. Temperatures remain well above normal and dry
conditions will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

Operational long range models remain consistent in a significant
pattern change upcoming for the end of the week. Strong cold
front to pass late Wednesday/Wednesday night, providing the next
chances for showers, and a cooler airmass to follow with 850mb
temperatures 10-15C cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z Saturday thru 18Z Sunday...

As of 130 PM Saturday...

Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through 06Z.
LIFR/VLIFR fog is expected to develop again after 06Z in favored
river valleys. Any fog will burn off between 13-14Z Sunday for a
return of VFR conditions with light surface winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and restrictions may vary from
forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/MAC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL



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