774
FXUS61 KRLX 041042
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
642 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times through
much of the weekend. Active weather continues into next week,
with daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM Saturday...

Current forecast is generally on track as precipitation
continues to journey across the area this morning. No
significant changes have been made to the near term forecast at
this time.

As of 315 AM Saturday...

Scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, will
continue to traverse the area early this morning, then activity
is expected to continue throughout the day as a shortwave
passes over the area. Coverage of showers and storms should peak
during the afternoon and evening hours when instability will be
the greatest. While storm activity may lessen again overnight,
chances for showers are expected to linger through the end of
the near term period.

Precipitation amounts for today and tonight should be under an
inch for much of the area, though pockets of higher amounts
will be possible due to locally heavy rain in showers and storms
today. Widespread flooding is not expected; however, some
localized issues aren`t out of the question in poor drainage
areas or if higher amounts fall over locations that experienced
heavy rain yesterday.

Between cloud cover and precipitation, daytime temperatures are
expected to max out in the 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to
low 70s along the mountains. Lows for tonight should then be in
the 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Isolated to scattered storms forming ahead of a cold front
   may grow to be strong to severe Sunday afternoon.

 * Heavy downpours remain a good possibility within showers and
   storms, leading to local flooding concerns.

Episodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain entrenched
within the short term period. For Sunday, continuing warm and
humid conditions will receive support from an approaching cold
front to sprout convection during the afternoon and evening
timeframe. Storms are progged to form out ahead of the boundary,
primarily in southeast Ohio, but as it outruns the front and
enters a less unstable airmass east of the Ohio River, activity
is expected to weaken. Might see a few instances of strong wind
gusts where convection has the best chance of organization.
Otherwise, will continue to monitor diminishing flash flood
guidance as showers and storms glide over areas that have
already received measurable rainfall the past few days.

The cold front takes residency along the lower Ohio Valley late
in the weekend into the start of the new work week. Up aloft,
weak ridging becomes nudged off the Mid-Atlantic coast during
the period as an upper level trough propagates through the
Intermountain West. Previous model runs hinting at a brief
reprieve in activity late Sunday night may still be onto
something for early Monday morning as mainly diurnally driven
activity wanes, but should return in earnest on Monday.
Additional support from a southern stream system riding up along
the stalled front will yield a south to north gradient of POPs,
with the theme of afternoon convection prevailing once more.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Remaining active through the work week in response to waves
   of disturbances migrating in from the west.

 * Daily chances of showers and storms remain each day this
   week, with possibility of stronger storms arriving around
   midweek.

 * Increased chances of localized flooding as areas receive
   multiple rounds of rainfall.

Unsettled weather continues to rule the roost through the work
week as shortwave energy rides up along the stalled frontal
boundary. Enough instability each day will support afternoon
thunderstorm development, and initially remaining fairly
diurnally driven that activity wanes during the overnight
period.

However, heading into midweek, a strong disturbance cycling over
the Upper Midwest will drag in greater support under the guise
of low level southwesterly flow inflicting increased moisture
and temperatures. This would help to sustain convection further
into the overnight period and may also assist in stronger
convective trends during peak heating hours. QPF values through
the course of the week will be heavily dependent on radar
trends each day, with growing potential for localized flooding
as soil conditions are tested with multi-day shower and storm
chances.

A cold front by the second half of the work week will attempt to
cut off the daily warm and muggy weather. However, showers and
perhaps thunderstorm develop remains intact for the weekend in
response to additional shortwave support crossing over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Saturday...

Showers continue to move across the area this morning, with
periodic VIS restrictions occurring in rain and fog. A
disturbance passing over the area during the day will sustain
shower and scattered thunderstorm activity into tonight, while
visibilities continue to be impaired within any heavier showers
or storms. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to MVFR at most
sites today, though some improvement may be possible this
afternoon. Flight conditions worsen again overnight as fog or
low stratus develop and scattered showers continue.

Light flow remains under 12kts out of the south to southeast
today, with 15-20kt gusts possible along the mountains this
afternoon and evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated
restrictions may vary from the forecast. Extent/duration of
restrictions due to fog or low stratus may vary tonight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 05/04/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers, stratus, and/or fog early Sunday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB