Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 131752
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1252 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits northeast of the area tonight. High pressure
builds on Tuesday. Cold front late Wednesday. High pressure
Thursday night. Strong cold front Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

A sfc low pressure system will continue to exit the area this
afternoon and tonight. Plenty of low level and northerly flow
will keep stratus, drizzle and patches of fog in the forecast
through tomorrow morning.

A slow improvement will continue over the area during the day
tomorrow as cooler high pressure and drier air starts to build
in over the region. Temperatures will remain on the cool side
with plenty of clouds around and with little diurnal range.


Temperatures

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Models are generally in good agreement through the middle of the
week.  High pressure is in control through a large portion of
the short term period, but slides eastward on Wednesday. Weak
return flow will push up temperatures for Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front that arrives in the Ohio Valley Wednesday
night. Very weak forcing with the front and the lack of moisture
will make for just a light rainfall across the region, with QPF
amounts topping out only around a tenth of an inch. By 12Z
Thursday the front has cleared the region with just some
lingering showers in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM Monday...

Model guidance really starts to diverge towards the end of the
week and into the weekend. Generally, there is good agreement
early on with high pressure pushing in behind the front on
Thursday, but this appears to be short-lived as a potent system
could impact the area late Friday or later in the weekend.
Models are consistent in the overall pattern, but there are
major timing differences at this time. Low pressure pushes out
of the Rockies and tracks northeastward into the Great Lakes.
All guidance indicates rapid development with this feature and
it eventually drags a strong cold front through. The GFS is now
much faster with this feature and has it coming through
overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Meanwhile the Euro takes
it through Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Forcing looks impressive with upper level divergence and a strong
anomalous low level jet out ahead of the front. GEFS indicates a
H850 wind of 60 to 65 knots which is about 2 to 3 standard
deviations above norms. Will have monitor how this unfolds the
next few days and although confidence is low at this time, it
does appear that the front progresses through quickly, so
flooding may not be much of a problem. However, winds may become
an issue, especially in the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Monday...

As a sfc low pressure system exit the area this this afternoon,
northerly winds and plenty of low level moisture will keep
LIFR/IFR/MVFR cigs and vsbys over the area. This will continue
across the area through tomorrow morning, before gradually
improving through out the day on Tuesday, as high pressure
starts to build over the area.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR to LIFR
conditions may vary tonight and Tuesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/99
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS



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