Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 131053
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
553 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits northeast of the area today. High pressure
crosses Tuesday. Cold front late Wednesday. High pressure
Thursday night. Strong cold front Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 550 AM Monday...

A sfc low pressure system will cross northeast of the area
today. Light rain showers along and ahead of its cold front are
moving over the eastern mountains this morning. Despite this
feature moves away from the area, plenty of low level clouds
will continue to affect the area.

As the low exits Monday morning its cold front will move
through and exits this afternoon and evening. Colder air on the
back side of this system will filter in and in the higher
elevations of the northern mountains may see a brief mix precip
before it ends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Models are generally in good agreement through the middle of the
week.  High pressure is in control through a large portion of
the short term period, but slides eastward on Wednesday. Weak
return flow will push up temperatures for Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front that arrives in the Ohio Valley Wednesday
night. Very weak forcing with the front and the lack of moisture
will make for just a light rainfall across the region, with QPF
amounts topping out only around a tenth of an inch. By 12Z
Thursday the front has cleared the region with just some
lingering showers in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM Monday...

Model guidance really starts to diverge towards the end of the
week and into the weekend. Generally, there is good agreement
early on with high pressure pushing in behind the front on
Thursday, but this appears to be short-lived as a potent system
could impact the area late Friday or later in the weekend.
Models are consistent in the overall pattern, but there are
major timing differences at this time. Low pressure pushes out
of the Rockies and tracks northeastward into the Great Lakes.
All guidance indicates rapid development with this feature and
it eventually drags a strong cold front through. The GFS is now
much faster with this feature and has it coming through
overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Meanwhile the Euro takes
it through Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Forcing looks impressive with upper level divergence and a strong
anomalous low level jet out ahead of the front. GEFS indicates a
H850 wind of 60 to 65 knots which is about 2 to 3 standard
deviations above norms. Will have monitor how this unfolds the
next few days and although confidence is low at this time, it
does appear that the front progresses through quickly, so
flooding may not be much of a problem. However, winds may become
an issue, especially in the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 550 AM Monday...

As a sfc low pressure system exit the area this morning, IFR
ceilings will continue across most of sites through at least
noon. Ceilings could lift to MVFR at times. Brief periods of
IFR ceilings are possible in post rain fog.

Light southwest flow aloft will become light west by dawn
Monday, and then light north by Monday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR to IFR conditions
may vary. Timing and degree of what is coded as slow improvement
today, may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 11/13/17
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR stratus likely overnight tonight into Tuesday. IFR possible
behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, mainly in stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ



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