Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 170600
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
100 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
With anafront east of the mountains, snow will diminish
overnight and early Wednesday. Arctic high crosses Wednesday
and Thursday. Southwest flow of milder air this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

Winter weather advisory for snow continued until 4 AM for the
southern mountains, as snow gradually winds down, but roads
remain treacherous. Forecast otherwise on track.

As of 920 PM Tuesday...

Slowly losing the coverage and the intensity of the snow across
the region, and have cancelled a large portion of the headlines
for the area.

As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Radar images show two distinctive snow bands crossing the KY
and WV border near the tri state area. Sfc reports indicate 2 to
3 inches of snow have fallen during the last 12 hours.
Additional 3 inches of snow can be expected with these snow
bands across portions of southern WV through this evening.
Therefore, a Winter weather advisory for snow has been upgraded
to winter storm warning for heavy snow, and the rest of the area
remains under snow advisories.

Under strong cold advection, temperatures will fall into the
single digits everywhere overnight into early Wednesday
morning. Went with the blend of all models for temperatures
through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will continue to build overhead on Wednesday
night and another cold night is expected. Wind Chills could
reach advisory criteria in the mountain zones. Will continue to
highlight in the HWO. Good news is that ridging continues to
build overhead with warm air advection and temperatures should
climb above freezing by Thursday afternoon for a large portion
of the region. Friday will even be warmer yet as ridging remains
overhead and warm SW flow pushes into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...

A warm frontal boundary will lift north across the area over
the weekend, with light rain showers developing by Saturday
afternoon. We will be well within the warm sector on Sunday,
with temperatures possibly climbing into the upper 50s to low
60s. Cold front comes through on on Monday and will bring a shot
of moderate to heavy rain with it. As the system pulls out, we
may see a changeover to snow in the mountains Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 AM Wednesday...

Snow will bring IFR conditions at times in the mountains
overnight before diminishing. MVFR ceilings will prevail much of
the time into Wednesday morning, before breaking up and, over
the lowlands, lifting.

Wrap around moisture may result in the return of MVFR stratocu
late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Surface flow will be light west to northwest beneath light
northwest flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the exit of IFR snow may vary
overnight. Timing of MVFR stratocu may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 01/17/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    L    M    L    L    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
None.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     WVZ520>526.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     WVZ033-034-515>519.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/26
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...TRM



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