Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 130808
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
308 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure brings rain across the area overnight into Monday.
High pressure crosses Tuesday. Cold front late Wednesday. High
pressure Thursday night. Strong cold front Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1025 PM Sunday...

Raised temperatures and dew points a bit farther overnight, in
the warm sector ahead of the approaching low pressure center
and cold front. Forecast otherwise on track.

As of 715 PM Sunday...

Adjusted PoPs to better account for the gap over the area early
on. Light rain associated with low pressure slings across the
area overnight. Measurable rain will not be as widespread across
southern portions of the area, compared with farther north,
closer to the low, so adjusted PoPs downward there.

Made minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points for
tonight, per current trends, and the latest guidance.

As of 110 PM Sunday...

Warm front over the area will continue to move northward as low
pressure to our west will move across the area tonight. Some
weak overrunning showers were noted near the front. These weak
showers will continue through the afternoon and into this
evening. As the low moves over the area tonight and exits on
Monday, rain chances increase as well. As the low exits Monday
morning its cold front will move through and exits Monday
afternoon and evening. Colder air on the back side of this
system will filter in and in the higher elevations of the
northern mountains may see a brief mix precip before it ends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Models are generally in good agreement through the middle of the
week.  High pressure is in control through a large portion of
the short term period, but slides eastward on Wednesday. Weak
return flow will push up temperatures for Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front that arrives in the Ohio Valley Wednesday
night. Very weak forcing with the front and the lack of moisture
will make for just a light rainfall across the region, with QPF
amounts topping out only around a tenth of an inch. By 12Z
Thursday the front has cleared the region with just some
lingering showers in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM Monday...

Model guidance really starts to diverge towards the end of the
week and into the weekend. Generally, there is good agreement
early on with high pressure pushing in behind the front on
Thursday, but this appears to be short-lived as a potent system
could impact the area late Friday or later in the weekend.
Models are consistent in the overall pattern, but there are
major timing differences at this time. Low pressure pushes out
of the Rockies and tracks northeastward into the Great Lakes.
All guidance indicates rapid development with this feature and
it eventually drags a strong cold front through. The GFS is now
much faster with this feature and has it coming through
overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Meanwhile the Euro takes
it through Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Forcing looks impressive with upper level divergence and a strong
anomalous low level jet out ahead of the front. GEFS indicates a
H850 wind of 60 to 65 knots which is about 2 to 3 standard
deviations above norms. Will have monitor how this unfolds the
next few days and although confidence is low at this time, it
does appear that the front progresses through quickly, so
flooding may not be much of a problem. However, winds may become
an issue, especially in the higher terrain.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

A sfc low pressure system will cross the area from west to east
overnight. VFR conditions expected to become MVFR at most sites.
An associated cold front will also cross the area from the west
to produce brief periods of light rain showers.

After the rain, conditions should remain MVFR through Monday
morning. However, low level ceilings could develop mainly across
the northern portions of WV, and in the mountains. Brief periods
of IFR ceilings are possible in post rain fog.

Surface flow will be light and variable, as the low pressure
center moves across overnight, but generally light southeast
becoming southwest, and then west to northwest behind the cold
front late tonight and Monday. Light southwest flow aloft will
become light west by dawn Monday, and then light north by Monday
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR to IFR conditions
may vary overnight into Monday. Timing and degree of what is
coded as slow improvement on Monday, may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 11/13/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    H    L    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR Rain/snow mix possible in the WV mountains Monday
evening. IFR stratus likely overnight Monday night into
Tuesday. IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ



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