Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 172006
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
406 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend with daily
shower and thunderstorm chances in a warm and humid air mass. A
cold front may finally bring a reprieve toward mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Overall, no significant changes were made to the near term
forecast. Convection is starting to fire this afternoon,
particularly in a couple of locations. One area of interest is
across southeast Ohio, where a boundary is evident on satellite.
Increased pops across these zones for this afternoon. Other area
where convection is quickly increasing is across the higher
terrain, with moist upslope flow, and numerous embedded
disturbances continue to rotate through the area. Models
indicating less activity across parts of WV lowlands, but
continued to maintain a high chance, as breaks in cloud cover
may allow for more development than models indicate. Overall
flow still relatively light, but not as light as on Wednesday,
but storms will still be relatively slow to move. Will allow the
flood watch to continue as is.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Friday, as upper
low/trough continues to linger across the Mississippi Valley
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 PM Thursday...

Warm conveyor belt out ahead of negatively tilted southern
stream short wave trough shifts east of the area Friday night.
Showers and thunderstorms over eastern portions of the area,
particularly where then flood watch is, push northeast of the
area Friday night and the flood watch expiration time of 00Z
still looks good.

The short wave trough itself pushes through on Saturday. This
will provide some forcing, along with wind shear, for strong
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, SPC depicts this with a
north-south marginal severe risk axis through the middle and
upper Ohio Valley.

This system pushes pushes out quickly Saturday night, but pushes
a surface cold front southward toward the area. This keeps the
chance for showers and thunderstorms going overnight,
especially north.

The front lifts north on Sunday and Sunday night, leaving the
area in the very warm and humid air, and primarily diurnally
driven convection given weak upper level ridging.

Temperatures reflect warmer afternoons per increasing sunshine,
compared with the past couple of days, with nights remaining
warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 405 PM Thursday...

Upper level ridge pushes east of the area Monday, allowing weak
ripples in the upper level flow to traverse the area. This
gradually switches front zonal to northwest, especially as one
last, somewhat stronger short wave trough crosses Tuesday
night. The chance for showers and thunderstorms in the very
warm and humid air continues Monday through Tuesday, diurnally
highest in the afternoon and evening.

A surface cold front crosses Tuesday night, driven by the last
short wave and the upper level northwest flow. This brings
drying Tuesday night, and a midweek reprieve in the wet
weather.

Temperatures remain above normal next week, even after the cold
front passes, but with slightly cooler nights and lower dew
points during the midweek reprieve.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage
again this afternoon. Bulk of activity is expected to be across
the higher terrain, and across parts of southeast Ohio. Expect
brief MVFR and IFR conditions in showers/thunderstorms.

Expect ceilings and visibilities to drop again tonight to
widespread MVFR/IFR, especially if the convective/mid high
level clouds clear out, with gradual improvement expected after
14Z. However, showers and thunderstorms will ramp up in coverage
again towards the end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could
vary thru the whole period. Timing, location, and density of
fog/ceilings tonight could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the
weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ028-030>034-039-040-
     515>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL



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