Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 190322
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1022 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow
will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front
passing Saturday. A cold front crosses late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1020 PM Thursday...

Tweaked hourly temps based on trends of holding onto some wind
thus far.

As of 612 PM Thursday...

Another frigid night on tap, though not quite as cold as last
night. Despite the snow cover and starry skies, low level winds
will help to keep temps from getting too out of hand overnight.
Still, expect a quick fall this evening, especially in the
hollers and outlying locations. It is here, along with the high
mountain valleys, where middle single digits were coded up. The
hilltops and ridgetops will stay a bit warmer, relatively
speaking.

As of 130 PM Thursday...

Broad sfc high pressure centered roughly over the lower MS River
will have a ridge, extending northeast across TN, KY and WV
through Friday. The high pressure center is expected to pass
well south of the area through the weekend.

Despite of clear skies expected, models show warm advection
under southwest to west winds. H850 temperatures will increase
just 2C by Friday from minus 2C this afternoon. Lows generally
in the teens, compared with the widepsread single digits of
early this morning, reflect the ongoing retreat of the arctic
air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

Warm air advection continues with surface ridging into the area
to start the weekend. Gradual warming is expected through the
weekend ahead of the next storm system. High clouds start
streaming in later Saturday, with enough sunshine during the
day, especially toward the east, to warm us nicely into th 40`s
and 50`s.

A warm frontal boundary lifts across the region Sunday with some
modest over-riding flow. Overall not expecting a heavy rain
threat with this - expect mostly cloudy temperatures and a
continuation of the warming trend light rain showers. Depending
on timing, i.e. if the warm front lifts before diurnal heating
takes over, there could be a wintry mix in the mountains upon
precip onset.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM Thursday...

The cold front associated with the aforementioned system
skirting across the region moves through Monday into Monday
night according to latest model guidance. Expect good moisture
with PW around an inch or so, far above the climatological norm.
Luckily, this is a progressive system so not expected widespread
water issues at this time in spite of heavy rain potential. Will
have to keep an eye on rivers for ice jams, however.

Expect a Tuesday morning changeover to a wintry mix and snow,
especially across higher terrain. Models at this time don`t
show great potential for cold air advection/upslope showers for
very long behind the front, but long range models are
notoriously poor in modeling these things - so have added in low
PoPs Tuesday especially across the north.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 PM Thursday...

CAVU through the period.

Moderate westerly boundary layer winds may result in a marginal
LLWS threat, but threat is too marginal and uncertain for
inclusion in the TAFs attm.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level wind shear could materialize if
boundary layer winds are a little stronger than expected.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 01/19/18
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
None.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...SL/MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...30


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