Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 210535
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
135 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southward on
today. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold
front approaches by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

As upper level low heads east, may still get a pop up shower
across the mountains and southern coal fields this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise looking at a dry day with plenty of
sunshine. Afternoon highs will generally be 5-10 degrees above
normal. River valley fog expected again tonight under mostly
clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Mainly dry conditions, with above normal temperatures in the
short term period. There is a slight possibility of an isolated
shower across the higher terrain during peak heating during the
period, but due to overall stable and dry conditions, will
likely be just cu. River valley fog expected in mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Better chances for precipitation in the long term period, albeit
chances are not overly great. Maria will move north through the
Atlantic early next week, with clouds, and possibly enough moisture
spreading westward into the CWA for isold shower activity. Maria
will eventually be pushed farther to the east as the week
progresses, as a shortwave trough and surface cold front moves
through the midwest by Thursday, with showers possible. At this
point, any QPF in the long term period looks to remain minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

Fog gradually forming early this morning and expect all TAF
sites to get in on IFR fog. The fog should gradually break up
13Z-15Z with VFR expected for the remainder of the day. Some
pop up showers are possible across the mountains and southern
coal fields. Winds will generally be light, out of the north to
northeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary. Could get
a passing shower at BKW this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 09/21/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ


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