Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 130015
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
715 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure brings rain across the area tonight into Monday.
High pressure crosses Tuesday. Cold front late Wednesday. High
pressure Thursday night. Strong cold front Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM Sunday...

Adjusted PoPs to better account for the gap over the area early
on. Light rain associated with low pressure slings across the
area overnight. Measurable rain will not be as widespread across
southern portions of the area, compared with farther north,
closer to the low, so adjusted PoPs downward there.

Made minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points for
tonight, per current trends, and the latest guidance.

As of 110 PM Sunday...

Warm front over the area will continue to move northward as low
pressure to our west will move across the area tonight. Some
weak overrunning showers were noted near the front. These weak
showers will continue through the afternoon and into this
evening. As the low moves over the area tonight and exits on
Monday, rain chances increase as well. As the low exits Monday
morning its cold front will move through and exits Monday
afternoon and evening. Colder air on the back side of this
system will filter in and in the higher elevations of the
northern mountains may see a brief mix precip before it ends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Largely a period of high pressure for the beginning of the work
week, although the flow aloft will be progressive as the next
frontal system deepens in response to a digging trough into the
upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Return flow brings the temperatures
back up ahead of the front, with showers entering the middle
Ohio Valley after 18Z Wednesday. No thunder for now in the
forecast with the showers along the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

More high pressure in the wake of the Wednesday night cold front
with quick ensuing thickness recovery and 850mb temperature
warming. Next low pressure system originates as a Colorado low,
with a forecast track northeastward into the Great Lakes and
Saturday cold front arrival. Operational long term models have
this as a rapidly deepening surface cyclone/closed low aloft
tandem, and will expect sharper cold air advection in the wake
just ahead of deer season.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail early on, ahead of a low pressure system
approaching from the west. The exception to this was that the
stratocu deck over the area was low enough so that ceilings were
MVFR over the higher elevations, including BKW, but even that
location may improve to VFR for a time tonight.

The low will drag a cold front across the area overnight, behind
which conditions will drop to MVFR on ceilings, and at times in
visibility in rain.

Post-rain nocturnal mist is not forecast to be any worse than
MVFR through dawn Monday, but ceilings are likely to go IFR
across northern WV, and in the mountains. These IFR ceilings may
briefly improve to MVFR in these areas Monday afternoon, but
not by much, while MVFR ceilings persist across the southern
lowland areas, to include the HTS to CRW corridor.

Surface flow will be light and variable, as the low pressure
center moves across overnight, but generally light southeast
becoming southwest, and then west to northwest behind the cold
front late tonight and Monday. Light southwest flow aloft will
become light west by dawn Monday, and then light north by Monday
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR to IFR conditions
may vary overnight into Monday. Timing and degree of what is
coded as slow improvement on Monday, may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR Rain/snow mix possible in the WV mountains Monday
evening. IFR stratus likely overnight Monday night into
Tuesday. IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/26
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM



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