Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 171027
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
627 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend with daily
shower and thunderstorm chances in a warm and humid air mass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM Thursday...

No major changes to the forecast this morning. Shower activity
continues over the mountains while the lowlands are primarily
quiet.

As of 250 AM Thursday...

Upper level low anchored over the mid Mississippi/lower Ohio
Valleys will continue the south to north push of upper level
disturbances with a tropical moisture feed. Meanwhile, a weak
stationary boundary over the mountains will slowly drift
southward just south of the CWA tonight. The mountains will once
again be the target for more persistent showers and a few storms
through the near term period, and will continue the flood watch
for this area with no changes. Keeping thunder at a minimum
overall again, but should not be ruled out. The construction of
the POP grids is largely based on trying to chase small low/mid
level deformation zones. Again, this mimics more of a mid/late
summer pattern than mid spring, especially given the lack of any
appreciable flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

An upper level low and multiple waves moving around it will
bring widespread showers and storms Friday. GFS and NAM hinting
at the dry slot moving through Friday night, so have lower POPs,
but not a completely dry forecast. During this time the upper
low is gradually filling and by Saturday passes as a weakening
trough. This should still bring a resurgence in POPs Saturday
with activity tapering off Saturday night as the trough moves
away. Still have a lingering surface boundary in the vicinity,
so again did not go completely dry across the forecast area
Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
as of 300 AM Thursday...

Expect a surface boundary to start out just south and east of
the forecast area Sunday night. This will push north as a warm
front in response to a surface low crossing the mid to upper
Mississippi River Valley. GFS and ECMWF differ in the path of
this so kept POPs just under likely levels for now. Lower
confidence remains through the end of the period as the GFS
keeps us in a more active zone with a surface boundary across
the forecast area while the ECMWF is more progressive driving
the front south. Used a consensus blend to amount for this
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 615 AM Thursday...

Expect shower activity to increase once again this afternoon
through tonight. Restrictions are possible in the heavier
showers where IFR is possible. Expect observations to bounce as
a result, coming in and out of the activity thru the entire
period. Thunder risks are minimal, and are not represented in
any prevailing or TEMPO conditions in this issuance.

Expect ceilings and visibilities to drop tonight, especially if
the convective/mid high level clouds clear out, and do represent
this late in the forecast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could
vary thru the whole period. Timing, location, and density of
fog/ceilings tonight could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 05/17/18
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the
weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ028-030>034-039-040-
     515>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26



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