Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 180520
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
120 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure through most of this week, providing warm
afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse mid week
with some showers possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

Mainly quiet weather is expected today and tonight with weak
high pressure remaining in the region. Highs this afternoon
should be a degree or two warmer than Sunday. Have isolated to
scattered showers across the mountainous counties of WV this
afternoon and evening. Moisture is on the thin side, but we had
some showers POP up Sunday afternoon/evening so do not see a
reason why today will be much different. Fairly strong cap in
place just above the layer of best moisture, so did not include
any thunder mention.

For tonight, expect similar conditions to the past few nights
with cool temperatures and dense valley fog. As an upper level
ripple approaches from the west, do have a bit more cloud cover
across the Tri-state area, so fog may not be quite as widespread
of dense there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

Weak surface reflection of a front across central Ohio finishes
its dying process this period with little to account for in the
sensible weather by Tuesday. Meanwhile, Irma should remain well
to our east, brushing the eastern seaboard per the latest NHC
guidance. We remain under 5h ridge with weak gradient flow and
some trapped boundary layer moisture. Thus, a continuation of
fair forecast with unseasonably warm temperatures and a few
diurnal showers still in the offing through mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

Large scale anticyclonic circulation at the mid and upper
levels becomes entrenched over the northeastern United States.
Kept current long term trends in place. It is a weak easterly
flow pattern with some low level moisture in place. Just enough
there to kick off a few mountains showers each day. Also relied
on blend for temperature forecast. Temperatures will run
unseasonably warm for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

Persistence forecast looks like a good bet tonight, with dense
valley fog forming over the next couple hours. Have IFR at
typical valley sites, improving 13Z-14Z. Isolated showers
possible across the mountainous counties this afternoon and
evening with another dose of dense river valley fog expected
tonight. Winds will be light and generally out of the north
today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog formation tonight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             MON 09/18/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MZ



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