Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 121828
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring rain into the area tonight into Monday.
A cold front passes mid week. Another cold front by the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

Warm front over the area will continue to move northward as low
pressure to our west will move across the area tonight. Some
weak overrunning showers were noted near the front. These weak
showers will continue through the afternoon and into this
evening. As the low moves over the area tonight and exits on
Monday, rain chances increase as well. As the low exits Monday
morning its cold front will move through and exits Monday
afternoon and evening. Colder air on the back side of this
system will filter in and in the higher elevations of the
northern mountains may see a brief mix precip before it ends.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

By Monday, the cold front should be along the eastern mountains.
Low level moisture and cool temperatures behind the front could
produce light rain showers mainly across the eastern mountains
under northwest flow. PoP quickly drops to low chance over the
mountains Monday night. Adjusted PoP to account for upslope
pcpn.

Cooler temperatures filtering in under NW flow has the
potential to transition rain into mixed and snow showers in the
higher elevations Monday evening before tapering off. There is a
potential for a warm nose at roughly 750mb to work its way in
before precip tapers entirely, however at this time it`s looking
more like a brief period of sleet as opposed to freezing rain
based on the depth of <0C layer beneath.

High pressure embedded within the progressive pattern moves
through Monday night through early Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

A frontal system, supported by a negatively tilted trough will
move across the Great Lakes region. A mid level short wave will
push another cold front Wednesday night. Expect a chance of
rain showers increasing to likely on Wednesday. The ECMWF looks
faster with the exodus of pcpn across the eastern mountains on
Thursday when compared with the GFS. The GFS continues to show a
much stronger, deeper low lending to greater rainfall totals
especially across the North.

Expect widespread rain along the trailing cold front. Timing of
actual FROPA will be Friday night through Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the afternoon with brief
MVFR cigs with sct showers around lifting warm front over the
area. MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in rain overnight tonight as a low
pressure system moves across the region. This low lifts
northeast and exits Monday afternoon and evening. MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys will start to improve towards 18z Monday from west to
east. MVFR/IFR will linger into Monday evening in the WV
Mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Rain may move in earlier than currently
forecast this afternoon and tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in rain early Monday. MVFR/IFR Rain/snow mix
possible in the WV mountains into Monday evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JS



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