Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 180135
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
935 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure through the weekend and most of next week,
providing warm afternoons and cool nights.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 9 PM Sunday...

Other than clouds hanging on a while longer over northeastern
WV early tonight, little change to forecast.

As of 1230 PM Sunday...

A high pressure system will remain over the area. Low level moisture
is trapped under the high however, possible allowing for some
afternoon showers in the WV mountains. Expect dense river valley fog
to form again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

Weak surface reflection of a front across central Ohio finishes
its dying process this period with little to account for in the
sensible weather by Tuesday. Meanwhile, Irma should remain well
to our east, brushing the eastern seaboard per the latest NHC
guidance. We remain under 5h ridge with weak gradient flow and
some trapped boundary layer moisture. Thus, a continuation of
fair forecast with unseasonably warm temperatures and a few
diurnal showers still in the offing through mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

Large scale anticyclonic circulation at the mid and upper
levels becomes entrenched over the northeastern United States.
Kept current long term trends in place. It is a weak easterly
flow pattern with some low level moisture in place. Just enough
there to kick off a few mountains showers each day. Also relied
on blend for temperature forecast. Temperatures will run
unseasonably warm for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
020Z Monday thru 00Z Tuesday...
As of 930 PM Sunday...

VFR ceilings lingering over northeastern WV including CKB and
EKN til 04Z, but fog will develop quickly after dissipation of
the clouds.

As of 7 PM Sunday...

Diurnal high based cu dissipating rapidly this evening, leaving
good radiational cooling under high pressure tonight. Thus,
basically a repeat of dense river and valley fog tonight, but
pushed it back 1-2 hours given a bit of warming and drying
today. Nevertheless, dense river valley fog will form at all
major TAF sites by 07Z, except at BKW with VFR expected to hold.
The fog will burn off by 14Z Monday, with a VFR cumulus deck
once again forming.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog formation tonight could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/18/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

No widespread IFR conditions at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV



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