Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 140958
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
558 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits this morning with a much less humid airmass
to end the work week. Heat and humidity then build back over the
weekend and into Monday under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 555 AM Thursday...

Updated temperatures and dew points into this morning based on
current obs and trends. Still have some isolated showers
working their way through the southern coal fields and
souther/central mountains of WV.

As of 130 AM Thursday...

Cold front currently moving through HTS-CRW-CKB line, and will
continue moving south and east through the early morning hours.
Kept some isolated to scattered showers going in the vicinity of
the front, lingering into mid morning across southwestern VA.
Drier air is lagging a bit behind the front...with a pretty big
drop off in dew points back into central Ohio. It`ll take some
time to scour out the moisture along the mountains, so expecting
some low clouds and fog this morning. This should erode through
about mid morning, with plenty of sunshine and drier air to
finish off the day. Expect a more refreshing night than we have
seen previously this week, with just some high clouds drifting
by and lows a few degrees below normal overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

No major changes to the short term forecast. Have kept the POPs
out of the CWA given the time needed to resaturate the column,
however there is a small model discrepancy issue for the early
Saturday time frame. An upper level wave/warm front tandem
could get enough moisture into the far northern zones to warrant
POPs, with which the NAM is a on the aggressive side while the
long term models are less so. The blend comes in with slights
just barely infiltrating the north. Have taken those out in a
bit of a risk, so this could be a forecast change in the future,
that is, reinserting low POPs for Saturday before 18Z.
Otherwise, will be getting into a truly hot airmass for the
weekend as 850mb temperatures could eclipse 20C, translating to
mid 90s for the warmest ares of the lowlands. To escape the
heat, head to Snowshoe, where the forecast keeps the temperature
just shy of 80F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Mississippi Valley upper ridge will drift to the east and build
over the southern Appalachians, so the hot air remains in place
for Monday. Rain chances will be on the slow increase with the
return of the moisture, and the ridge aloft will retreat to the
south through mid week, with a cold front late Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Right now, this looks like another dry airmass that will
bring drier weather again beyond day 7.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 555 AM Thursday...

Some uncertainty with fog early this morning, have some flow and
drier air moving in from the north, but also getting some obs
hinting at denser fog out there. Also have IFR stratus across
the southern mountains. At any rate, any fog/clouds should
break up and lift after sunrise with VFR expected for the
remainder of the forecast. Winds will turn northerly behind the
front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvements this morning may
vary. Could get some sheltered valley fog late tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.