Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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676
FXUS61 KRLX 181856
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
156 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow
will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front
passing Saturday. A cold front crosses late Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Broad sfc high pressure centered roughly over the lower MS River
will have a ridge, extending northeast across TN, KY and WV
through Friday. The high pressure center is expected to pass
well south of the area through the weekend.

Despite of clear skies expected, models show warm advection
under southwest to west winds. H850 temperatures will increase
just 2C by Friday from minus 2C this afternoon. Lows generally
in the teens, compared with the widepsread single digits of
early this morning, reflect the ongoing retreat of the arctic
air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

Warm and mostly dry during the short term period with high pressure
in control. A warm frontal boundary associated with low pressure
moving northeast out of the Plains will lift north across the area
late Saturday night into Sunday, with light showers forming as it
does so.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

Cold front associated with aforementioned low will sweep across the
forecast area on Monday, with rain developing area wide. Good
moisture fetch associated with system, with PW values progged to
rise to around an inch, will result in decent rain totals, with qpf
values around 0.75 inches or more area wide. Any lingering
precipitation will change over to light rain and snow showers Monday
night, continuing into Tuesday, with light accumulations possible.
Wednesday looks to be dry with more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...

CAVU through the period.

High pressure builds overhead to provide clear skies through the
period. The GFS and NAM show H850 west southwest winds around 40
knots around 2000 feet.  The NAM and RAP13 models suggest
Boundary layered winds of 20 to 30 knots overnight. Expecting
EKN site to decouple overnight to produce light to calm winds.
These conditions could produce low level wind shear at EKN
overnight and was included in TAFEKN starting at 05Z.

For the rest of the sites, light to gentle flow with occasional
gusty winds will reduce the threat for LLWS at other sites.

Light southwest surface flow, west to northwest on the ridges,
will strengthen and become a bit gusty this afternoon and
evening, before becoming light again tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of low level wind shear may vary.
Low level wind shear could materialize at other sites if the
lower atmosphere decouples.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
None.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ



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