Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 171640
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1235 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure through the weekend and most of next week,
providing warm afternoons and cool nights.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

A high pressure system will remain over the area. Low level moisture
is trapped under the high however, possible allowing for some
afternoon showers in the WV mountains. Expect dense river valley fog
to form again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Weak high pressure at the surface will provide fairly seasonable
weather for mid September. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees
above normal.

Diurnally driven showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder, will be
possible across the mountainous counties on Monday. A weak upper
level shortwave trough will bring the potential for some
thundershowers in the middle Ohio River Valley on Tuesday.

High temperatures will be about 4 degrees above normal

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Weak high pressure will linger through much of the week. Aloft,
several weak impulses will be drifting through Wednesday and
Thursday with the potential for some showers or storms. High
temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal,
with near to just above normal lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

VFR cumulus can be expected this afternoon. Some showers could form
this afternoon in the northern and central mountains of WV,
providing a brief restriction.

Expect VFR conditions early this evening, but dense river valley fog
will quickly form tonight. The fog will burn off by mid morning
Monday, with a VFR cumulus deck once again forming.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Scattered showers in the northern and central
WV mountains this afternoon are not included in the TAFs due to
their limited coverage. Timing of fog formation tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

No widespread IFR conditions at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...RPY



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