Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 120706
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
206 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Two low pressure systems bring rain this evening through
Monday. A cold front passes mid week. Another cold front by the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 205 AM Sunday...

Weak overrunning today as a warm front pushes northeast into the
Ohio Valley this afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of
rainfall with warm front, and have kept PoP out of the forecast
until late this afternoon in the Eastern Mountains. Cold front
approaches from the west tonight and we will see a widespread
area of light rainfall push into the Ohio Valley this evening.
Very minimal moisture with this front and looking at less than a
quarter inch of rain just about everywhere.

Although mid and upper level cloud cover is expected for much of
today, it will be a bit warmer out there with highs climbing
into the 50s for much of the Lowlands. Tonight will also be much
warmer with the clouds and rain pushing through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

By Monday, the cold front should be along the eastern mountains.
Low level moisture and cool temperatures behind the front could
produce light rain showers mainly across the eastern mountains
under northwest flow. PoP quickly drops to low chance over the
mountains Monday night. Adjusted PoP to account for upslope
pcpn.

Cooler temperatures filtering in under NW flow has the
potential to transition rain into mixed and snow showers in the
higher elevations Monday evening before tapering off. There is a
potential for a warm nose at roughly 750mb to work its way in
before precip tapers entirely, however at this time it`s looking
more like a brief period of sleet as opposed to freezing rain
based on the depth of <0C layer beneath.

High pressure embedded within the progressive pattern moves
through Monday night through early Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

A frontal system, supported by a negatively tilted trough will
move across the Great Lakes region. A mid level short wave will
push another cold front Wednesday night. Expect a chance of
rain showers increasing to likely on Wednesday. The ECMWF looks
faster with the exodus of pcpn across the eastern mountains on
Thursday when compared with the GFS. The GFS continues to show a
much stronger, deeper low lending to greater rainfall totals
especially across the North.

Expect widespread rain along the trailing cold front. Timing of
actual FROPA will be Friday night through Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1235 AM Sunday...

Conditions will remain mostly VFR through through 00Z Monday,
however, a cold front arrives from the west tonight and will
likely bring restrictions through early Monday morning. Timing
at this time is still uncertain, so have only brought in some
MVFR conditions at HTS and PKB towards the end of the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Rain may move in early than currently
forecast tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 11/12/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in rain early Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK



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