Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 230633
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front
approaches middle to end of next week. Cooler airmass to follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1020 PM Friday...

Cirrus still lingering across the area, but expect this to shift
south as the night progresses.

As of 715 PM Friday...

Freshened up the grids, though no major changes resulted. Pretty
much a persistence forecast tonight with the fog...though it
may be delayed an hour or two, depending on how much cirrus
lingers this evening.

As of 205 PM Friday...

Surface and upper level ridging to the north continues the
quite, but unseasonably warm weather, with dense valley fog once
again forming overnight, and then burning off around mid
morning.

Opened up diurnal spread with guidance suggesting slightly
lower lows tonight, and the MET higher for highs Saturday. Those
MET values seemed high, but opted to go just below 90 across
the lowlands. There should be less cumulus and cirrus around,
and the morning inversion is progged to be more shallow,
compared with this morning. This, with light downslope flow,
should favor strong heating for late September,

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

Very few changes to the forecast for the short term as upper
level ridging remains in control over the Ohio Valley through
early next week. Temperatures remain well above normal and dry
conditions will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

Operational long range models remain consistent in a significant
pattern change upcoming for the end of the week. Strong cold
front to pass late Wednesday/Wednesday night, providing the next
chances for showers, and a cooler airmass to follow with 850mb
temperatures 10-15C cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 715 PM Friday...

High pressure spells VFR conditions outside of VLIFR river and
valley fog 07Z to 13Z tonight. Onset may be delayed an hour or
so, depending on how much cirrus lingers this evening. The fog
forecast is less certain at BKW, but fog there should be no
worse than this morning.

Surface flow will be light northeast by day and calm at night,
while northeast flow aloft this afternoon becomes light east
tonight, and remains light east on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cirrus may delay onset of dense fog longer
than currently forecast. Brief IFR forecast at BKW may not
occur.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/23/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30



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