Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 230706
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
306 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front
approaches middle to end of next week. Cooler airmass to follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Saturday...

With a stagnant pattern of ridging surface and aloft, expect little
change to the forecast today from yesterday. Any changes will
be minor. These changes will be, after dense morning river
valley fog, less cirrus from the remnants of the once tropical
system off the southern New England coast, and so more sunshine.
This will lead to another dry day but with high temperatures a
couple of degrees higher than yesterday. Look for highs today
near 90 degrees. Tonight will be similar to last night with
clear skies and calm winds which will lead to river valley fog.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

Very few changes to the forecast for the short term as upper
level ridging remains in control over the Ohio Valley through
early next week. Temperatures remain well above normal and dry
conditions will persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

Operational long range models remain consistent in a significant
pattern change upcoming for the end of the week. Strong cold
front to pass late Wednesday/Wednesday night, providing the next
chances for showers, and a cooler airmass to follow with 850mb
temperatures 10-15C cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
07Z Saturday thru 06Z Sunday...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

High pressure spells VFR mostly clear outside of LIFR river and
valley fog early this morning and again early Sunday morning.
LIFR fog affects major TAF sites, except BKW, til 14Z this
morning and again Sunday morning.

Surface flow will be light northeast by day and calm at night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/23/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV


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