Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 260235
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1035 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east of the area overnight. A southern
system may graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold fronts
Friday night and Saturday. High pressure Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1035 PM Wednesday...

Clearing over the middle Ohio Valley will be partially reversed,
as some stratocu reforms, and high clouds increase from the
southwest, ahead of the next low pressure system. The forecast
is otherwise on track.

As of 810 PM Wednesday...

Northeast to southwest oriented cold front bisected the area,
with scattered showers along and east of the front, this evening.
The forecast remains on track, as these features continue to
move east tonight.

As of 130 PM Wednesday...

Overall, no significant changes were necessary to the near term
forecast period. Upper low continues to hang out near the
eastern North Carolina/Virginia coast, with bulk of
precipitation associated with that off to our east. An upper
trough in northern stream, and surface cold front, which appears
to have entered southeast Ohio zones, will continue to provide
some light shower activity at times through the remainder of the
evening, particularly across the higher terrain, aided by
northwesterly flow. This front will gradually sag south across
the area later tonight, before becoming somewhat stationary
across the south on Thursday.

Lots of uncertainty in the forecast overnight, and how much
clearing will take place. Based on this, could see either a
night with lots of low hanging cloud, or fog development. Went
ahead and added patchy fog to the forecast for tonight, and
thinking areas most likely to clear/see fog will be across
western/northern zones.

Much of Thursday looks to be dry, although chances for
precipitation will return across the south towards the end of
the period as another low moves east across the southeastern
U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM Wednesday...

Models have come together with the system moving up from the
southeast and exiting late Thursday night and Friday. GFS is
more aggressive with this system as it exits than the NAM but
similar in timing and tracks. A brief break on Friday and then
models differ on the next system which tracks north of the area,
with a weak front moving through for Saturday. Moisture may be
lacking with this system and precip may be limited to the
northern zones Saturday. So mainly went with slight chance pops
with chance pops in mainly across the northern mountain zones.
Temperatures warm to the 70s over much of the area on Friday out
ahead of this next frontal system and just a tad cooler with
more clouds and possible precip on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

A high pressure system will build over the area Saturday night,
and remain through Wednesday. Temperatures will gradual warm
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 810 PM Wednesday...

Low level moisture, in the wake of low pressure, and a cold
front, exiting to the east, will keep MVFR stratocu around
through the overnight into Thursday morning. In addition, it
will not take much in the way of breaks in the overcast to allow
dense fog to form overnight. In and near the mountains, IFR
stratus will also be around overnight into Thursday morning. The
fog will dissipate around 14Z Thursday, and the stratus and
stratocu will mix out into a flat cu deck near 4 kft by Thursday
afternoon.

The next low pressure system will approach from the southwest
late Thursday.

Light north to northwest flow surface and aloft overnight, will
become light and variable surface and aloft on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form overnight -- or could
develop as low stratus instead. With very light flow Thursday
morning, the fog may not dissipate as quickly or abruptly as
coded.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 04/26/18
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    M    L    L    M    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible overnight Thursday night into Friday
morning in rain in the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...TRM



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