Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 221803
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses tonight. High pressure to end the work week but
more unsettled weather arrives in time for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Showers and storms have developed across most of the southern
forecast area in a warm and unstable airmass. Farther north
convection this morning left a more stable area but with some
sunshine making it in now think we could get some storms to pop
there as well. For the most part, do not expect this current
activity to pose much of a threat due to a cap as evident on
forecast soundings. The chance of stronger storms will arrive
from the west late this afternoon into this evening. Storms are
beginning to strengthen along and just ahead of a cold front
which will move our way this evening, and cross the forecast
area tonight. These storms should become strong to severe across
western and central Ohio. The best area of instability extends
into the far NW corner of the forecast area and coincides with a
region of around 40kts bulk shear. This should allow the storms
to remain strong to this point with strong winds the highest
threat but some large hail is also possible. Instability
quickly tapers off crossing SE Ohio and especially into WV/KY
so storm intensity should decrease quickly across this zone. If
a strong enough cold pool develops in central Ohio, it may be
able to sustain stronger cells to around the Ohio River this
evening.

The cold front will cross tonight, moisture is beginning to
decrease by this point, so capped POPs at scattered overnight.
Continued and isolated thunder mention. Any lingering isolated
showers across the mountains should taper off Wednesday with a
dry day farther west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...

Dry air advects in behind the front for Wednesday with dewpoints
dropping in the afternoon. High pressure noses in from the north
before sliding off to the east on Friday. This will keep a
comfortable airmass in place, relatively speaking, though remaining
warm. Expect dense river valley fog each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 329 AM Tuesday...

A tropical system meandering along the northern Gulf coast will
combine with return from from the upper ridge off the southeast
coast and an approaching upper level trof...for rounds of
showers/storms over the weekend. PWATS surge to near 2 inches on
Sunday with downpours potentially adding to a flooding concern. Kept
thunder on a diurnal trace in this pattern..

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front
through this evening. As the cold front crosses tonight we
should see another round of showers and maybe storms. Did not
include any IFR in these, but anticipate needing to amened if
storms approach any TAF site.

Models fairly insistent on fog and low stratus formation tonight
behind the rain despite keeping some flow. Have include this at
most sites. Any fog should dissipate in the hour or two after
sunrise with MVFR clouds lingering through the morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions in showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ


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